You can also bet on the multiple number ranges on roulette and make 80% after 4 bets. But in the long run they will get your money.
The difference is you can't predict roulette but you can predict market. If you can't predict market, give up on your trading, its not the game for you.
It doesn't matter whether you can predict the market or not. The point is that with binaries, the odds are stacked against you so much that even someone who could make money out of them in the long run would be able to make more from other kinds of trading anyway. The skill-set required to trade them profitably isn't hugely different from the skill-set required to to any other kind of trading profitably; the returns measured in terms of your risk are always just lower with binaries, because of the additional "house edge" you have to be able to overcome in addition to everything else. The ways they're marketed attract "traders" with a particular type of mentality, and that also imposes additional risk because of their widespread poor (or non-existent) regulation. There are reasons that countries are increasingly talking about banning them altogether.
Once the UK FCA bans Binaries. IG will have to stop its large binary operation in London. I wouldnt bet on them keeping Nadex running after that, maybe try and sell it off if they can as they will no longer be interested in the binary business.
Any claims that Nadex is manipulating prices of the underlying indexes they price their options on to take out your $500 position are complete and utter BS. If you can show me a index price on Nadex used to show that your option closed OTM that you think doesn't conform with the underlying, please provide that as proof. You'll have an email from them and you can also get all their closing prices from their website. It's dead simple to prove if their manipulating their underlying, but I'll be willing to bet a large sum of money you can't. And no Southall, we don't need to go with your whole "I hate IG" trope. The OP asked a cut and dry question alleging manipulation that even you have to agree couldn't possibly have occurred without any of us being able to easily demonstrate it.
I have no clue where the market is going and I have yet to see anyone who has a market call that's evven close to statistically consistent. Yet I've been an profitable institutional trader for the past 20 years. Go figure. I have thought about the whole binary options thing and came to a conclusion that it's a gambling product. It's not a bad thing in itself, but I cringe that Nadex is a designated "exchange" and that allowes them to circumvent restrictions on the online gambling. Just like in gambling, the house advantage is the vig (I am still not convinced it's that easy to become an MM there to be the one collecting the edge). Just like in gambling, the product refers to some random outcome (the expected price of S&P in 20 min is as good as the output of a roulette wheel). Most participants are amateurs and will be fleeced (by the virtue of bid/ask). What's missing is the good stuff - where are the girls in skimpy outfits, shows and free drinks?
This is the mentality that makes binaries, leveraged spread betting, horse racing, dog racing, cock fighting .. a business. It's an incurable disease, and a percentage of the population is inflicted with it. Winning is skill, whilst losing is bad luck or fraud - apparently.
A basic market phenomenon is that in an up trend, market closes more up days than down days, and in a down trend market closes more down days than up days. Since post election rally, NDX close 61 up days and 31 down days, is that phenomenon close to statistically consistent?Does that statistics look like roulette? Is that enough to make money on daily binary options? You can further improve your probability by considering previous day market close and previous day's trading range and today's open and how today progress . I know even you don't know market direction, you still can make money on binaries, but if you know market direction you can significantly improve your performance. From the talk so far in this thread I see people lack basic skill to analyze market yet they love to make conclusion on things they have no clue on.
This is why there's a market for a product with horrible spreads. Compulsive gambling & pathological lying is a disease.
The longest recorded streak of one color in roulette in American casino history happened in 1943 when the color red won 32 consecutive times. In a row. If you saw the emerging trend in the NDX after the election. You could of bought the future or ETF and paid one tiny spread. Why pay Nadex a total of 500 pts in spread + 100 commissions over the last 100 days?