Don, you ever play Blackjack? That's the only game I'll attempt when in Vegas. I guess I'm a rookie, but I'll use a strategy card if the dealer doesn't object.
Blackjack is perhaps the ONLY Vegas game where you can put the odds in your behavior... that is, if you can disguise your efforts from the house. Interesting that you bring up Blackjack in a trading forum.. Personally I believe the closest correlation between gambling games and trading... is counting cards in blackjack.
I agree with your example that trading is like blackjack. We sit, watch and wait for a statistically favorable situation. However, trading is no different than anything else we do in life. Everything is a gamble. When we cross the street, first we assess the odds of making it safely to the other side. If the risk/reward is acceptable, we cross the street. Trading, like crossing the street, is simply a decision to take action based on known risk/reward.
Agreed!!! And Blackjack is ALL I will play. Nothing else. My Uncle used to teach probabilities at a major university. He was a good enough player back in the 1970's that the Vegas Casions used to escort him to the door anytime he would walk in. One Casino was very nice about it, and sent to his home a roulette wheel which his family has. Other Casinos said, "don't even try to come in." When you have an edge in Vegas, you are NOT welcome. The ONLY time you are welcome is when you are giving $$$ to the house, not winning... At least not winning CONSISTENTLY. Wish I had spent more time around him as a kid to learn what he used to teach. He passed away ten years ago, and the only one he taught his methods to was his Son who doesn't gamble, and has no desire to. I ask his Son often if he has found any writings from his Dad, about his methods/systems. He says no, which makes me wonder... Oh well, sometimes in life, a gift is right there in front of you, and you don't see it until it's too late...
No, there is more to it than "risk of loss vs. possibility of reward"... there is also "probability of outcome". In gambling, the "probability of outcome" is fixed... it's against the player and there's nothing the player can do about it...except "hope (gamble) to beat the odds".... NOT true in trading, where the player (trader) can put the odds in his favor by his knowledge and behavior. .
I was using "risk/reward" as a general concept, not a specific trading definition. Over the past 18 years, I've built my trading strategies around a database of thousands of statistically documented trades that measure risk, reward, probability of outcome... and many other things. When my children were very young, they were willing to run into the street simply because they wanted to get to the other side. They saw the reward, but did not asses the risk (or probability of outcome). They were just like beginning traders, always hyper-focused on the reward, not fully understanding the risk or associated probablities.
You can "buy 100 ES" any place you like. You will certainly have (1) uncertainty of outcome, and (2) risk of loss. But the PROBABILITY OF LOSS will depend upon your behavior... AT WHAT PRICE you took the risk/trade. In gambling, the "probability of outcome" is already determined... (and they didn't build those spectacular casinos on the players' winnings.)
(Probably time to move this to chit chat, but....)...wow, in my 1972 Ford Custom Van I travelled with the best pool player that I knew at the time to Denver...I was a pretty good 200+ bowler at the time....well, needless to say we ended up at Celebrity Center (my brother Bob was living in Denver at the time).... got into a pool game in the range of $25-$200 per rack....did "ok" - met these guys who ran money for bookies to the track....they "hustled" me into bowling for money, I brought in my bag and ball with a fresh "ProPBA" imprint from my recent tournament play in Long Beach....and made some good money....well, then we were off to the arcades for pinball etc. ...more money....then, these guys invite us to a poker game at their home (basement) - $2000 buy in.....a little apprehensive, a little scared (22 years old)...I call my brother (10 years older) to join us in the poker game....about 15 hours later, my brother had most of the money (what else is new), and I was sound asleep with 3 hitchaking females on our way back to California....safe and sound..... Thanks for the memory recall... Don
Yes. Trade location (price relative to ordinal scale variance) is a prime determinant of probability of outcome.
"200+ bowlers" were rare in those days... I know, I was one of them. Weren't you the BIG winner? 3-hitchhiking females and all?? Sounds like your "mis-spent youth" was a lot like mine...