myfxpedia : Daily Signals and Strategies

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Amelia84, Nov 21, 2012.

  1. Amelia84


    Today analysis:

    The market in the US is currently like a jigsaw puzzle, especially when came a person of high calibre like Ben Bernanke talks about fiscal cliff. From his speech yesterday there was no really new thing that we already know about. What we were looking for in his speech were to find out as is there any hint of an expansion for the open end of asset purchase program. That is any hint of similarity to the potential upcoming Japan Government and that is willing to assassinate the USD.

    The moment that Bernanke mention “fiscal cliff” the market started to get nervous and as he reiterated “fiscal cliff poses substantial threat to the economy and could cause recession”. As soon as that statement came out of his mouth the Dow Jones immediately tanked 80 points. Good on you Mr. Chairman, you are truly a scaremonger.

    Add on to the nervousness was the statement from the investment Bank Morgan Stanley that warned of the economy that is literally stuck in the “twilight zone” of sluggish quarter in 2013 and if the law makers fail to act it could get worse. What’s more? They, the Morgan Stanley’s economic team even gave a forecast of full blow recession sometime next year. Another scaremonger I suppose.

    Going to the Euro, the debt ridden groups, we also had another blow to one of its member from the rating agency, Moody. They had now cut France, the third biggest economy in the Euro group, by one notch to AAa and affirmed that the outlook for France remains negative.

    Well, as we can see there are negativities everywhere and as I said many times over the past few weeks, we are in a period of uncertainty and difficult trading conditions for the last month or so. Yet, this period of head scratching, head banging will not going away anytime soon because we are now heading to the festive season and as day go by the volumes of traders in the market will substantially drop and since there is not many bidders/sellers around we will see the spike in prices either way and expansion of spreads. Just be careful and do not overly expose and make sure use wider stop(avoid being hunt) with smaller lot size but stick to same your personal risk percentage that you are comfortable.

    Impact News today:

    04:30 am (NY) GBP – MPC Meeting Minutes; Public Sector Net Borrowing
    08:30 am (NY) USD – Unemployment Claims
    08:45 pm (NY) CNY – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI.

    Technical analysis:

    Today I want to bring your attention to GBPJPY. Among the Yen pair I think this pair provide a better opportunity. Keep in mind, the potential upcoming Japanese Government is willing to kill the Yen so in the medium term the Yen pairs could still going up. See chart below.