Partly. I don't now what that trend channel is. Plus you have both a channel and a lateral range on your daily. You can play with the charts any way you like in order to learn what you need to know from them. However, it's easy to get carried away. TMI. Once you have the weekly/daily trend and you know where you are with regard to the upper and lower limits and the median, see what the hourly looks like in that context. If you're not trading the hourly, see how the 15m looks, whether it's aligned or not. This is what I've tried to show in my Foresight charts. The weekly/daily tells you the trend of the market. The hourly tells you your place in that trend. There's no need to repeat any weekly/daily information because you already know that.
Got it. Cheers. It must get frustrating saying the same thing to the same questions. But it is appreciated! I'll go back over the prep for this day to drill that in. btw - TMI??
Too much information. Remember that all W had were the weekly and daily. He didn't have umpteen bar intervals to slosh through. Once you know what the trend is and your place in it, all that's left is to find the entry opportunity. If you get confused by multiple trends and counter trends, not to mention the fractal nonsense, you'll lose your bearings and never be able to gain confidence in your trade.
Not to belabor the point, but note on your daily that you have plotted its reversal off the upper limit of the weekly trend channel, its subsequent rejection of the median, and its rally halfway back to the upper limit of the trend channel. It is the failure to get more than halfway that is most important here, not the lateral lines. That failure provides more meaning to what you find in the hourly. By the same token, the diagonals in the hourly don't provide you with any additional information that is necessary. You've moved on by then, and you see that price is clustering below the median level on the hourly. All the 15m does is enable you to zoom in if you don't want to enter based on the hourly. None of which is a guarantee that a short trade must be successful. It's a matter of stacking the probabilities in your favor. If you can enter without bias, you'll be better able to change your tactics appropriately at the right time. Don't plot anything you don't need, and get rid of what you needed once you don't need it anymore.
This is precisely why I needed to start this journal. Thanks DB, that post is really helpful. I'm trying to get my thoughts together on this so the response will come soonish...
Here is that response I was working on... Pack your overnight bags people it's a long one Sorry if this isn't adding to the discussion but its clear to me that my premarket analysis is pretty poor at present. I think I've been too busy finding levels rather than determining the proper context for the day ahead.... so.... As you say DB, the main issue is the failure of price to sustain a move above the halfway mark between the weekly Median and Upper level. By adding everything else; hourly trend channels etc - all I've done is add extra layers of analysis which take my focus away from that failure to move above the halfway mark. So… coming into the open, with price testing the halfway mark from below, my attention should be on how traders react to that level. This is the larger context of the day ahead. From that perspective - the story behind the overnight action is the markets ability / willingness to rally back up to test the halfway mark, is that right? Put more simply: The first step is to determine the current trend of the market; Weekly Uptrend; The second step is to determine one's place in the current trend; Having bounced off the weekly trend Channel Median, Buyers failed to sustain the resulting move higher towards the Upper level of the trend channel. The third step is to determine the proper timing of one's entry into whatever it is he's trading. A second rejection of the halfway mark at ~4200 would suggest a continued move lower back towards the weekly median, whilst a move higher would suggest a move to the upper trend channel level. So my cues for action are all based on the markets reaction to the 50% level at the open. i.e Breakout, Retracement or Rejection Does that sound about right? Damn - what is it with me, I always end up writing a novel for a response?!!!
Yep, that sounds about right. And when you get around to re-reading Wyckoff Lite, you will very likely pick up many things that went right by you the first time. Everybody does, at least those who find it appealing. W is entirely about supply and demand and the balances and imbalances between them. The waves, of course, are simply a tool to help judge the state of those balances, as is the ability or inability of traders to move or not move price past the halfway mark of upmoves and downmoves. It is always about who's in charge. For example, when I enter a retracement, I want to see buyers willing to pay the ask. If they aren't, then why the hell should I be? That's what Teresa Lo meant when she said, "If it doesn't move, you don't want to be there." Always be sensitive to the tells of strength and weakness. They will tell you what to do.
Thanks for that. All the help is greatly appreciated. I have many re-readings of Wyckoff ahead of me, but as you say you get something new out of it every time. I also have a feeling my pre market analysis will be conducted somewhat differently from tomorrow onwards Seriously, the number of times I've read those points (determine the trend, ones place within it, and the timing of ones entry) without really applying them as an integral part of my personal premarket steps.... Ridiculous.... Its a good thing they don't jail people for stupidity i guess!