There is no dilemma if it hits my stop it hits it. Like I said on et if you short something you must defend it with your life. The fact is I'm short if I'm wrong I'm wrong its not going to break me. The reward is well worth the risk . I know my system and I know the odds thats why I'm in this trade.
Well whatever, I would have waited until after Monday at least. I doubt we'll correct on a Monday... No need to expose yourself too early. We produced a strong bar on Friday. I imagine we get some mutual fund pumping on Monday. Then it isn't out of the realm of possibility that we pull back at least to the 10 period. You may feel good as your trade begins to work. Question is, are you going to cover at the right time? When do you cover? What is your plan? Are you going for a full blown correction at these levels? I think this market has a foundation, don't expect anything huge. I just don't see the point in calling a top in this market. The trade is to buy dips, not sell 'tops.'
could you remind us about some of your great analytical pieces supporting your bull case? thanks i vaguely remember something about the earnings that are guaranteed to go higher and higher...
Shorting a breakout on light volume after the market has doubled in record time (S&P 666 low X 2, up 100% in less than 2 years) is not the craziest thing a person could do. Having said that, personally I'd prefer a little more of an overshoot (50 pts?), a slightly lower VIX (sub 15), or some confirmation or fundamental catalyst before calling a top. OP, I wish you good luck. Edit: To expand on the "double" theory, each double off a pivot low going back to 1980 has produced a correction of at least 5% somewhere from the double point to 50 pts further, roughly.
i would average into and accumulate a short position with conviction here adding every 12 points until your broke or spx tests the 50dma.
Good post. It will indeed become evident after the fact, however: 1. Earnings season is almost over, and with many bullish reports, it will take continued buying pressure to hold the gains. 2. Many of the Drexion bear market inverse funds are going to reverse-split at the end of month. These ETFs have been beaten to a pulp and will attract new traders with any increased volatility in the market. 3. The S&P is up around 100% since the March 2009 lows, and the longs have have had a decent run from the September 1st, 2010 leg up without a significant correction. 4. Listen closely for key buzz words on CNBC. When we start to have several lower opens on the futures, watch for the talking heads to cite "profit taking" as the reason, yet keep suggesting it's a "buying opportunity." That's when the Manchurian Candidates (read: the shorts) will start to crush it!
I have some more adding points if it continues into my zone around 2-3 add on points in this 15-20 point zone. But thats a good point ill just double down every point up and leverage myself 10-1 maybe even take some loans out! On a side note minus a couple patronizing posts I appreciate the serious answers I've gotten makes me realize that et isn't totally down the drain.
Update With 10+ market moving news reports coming out next week I think it could be the catalyst for the correction. I believe the ppi will show surprising results above the high estimate of 1% and the cpi will be above the high of .4%
update: tested the zone again and fell 4 points quickly, expecting a bounce at the 27 area, can throw out some longs for a nice scalp. would like to see XOM follow through on the sell off however
I always did enjoy news channels who would report great fundamentals driving a price up, and then "profit taking" on the way down. Can't have both ways