My Trading Strategies-Critiques needed.

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by jimclark, Oct 1, 2004.

  1. Wisers,

    I've been trading for a few months now and trying to analise my techniques and setups.

    I had about $12,000 trading capital which is now down by few thousand dollars.

    I trade through Ameritrade Canada and use QuoteTracker (by Medved) as my "platform". I intend to swing trade but some days end up day-trading.

    1) I run a nightly scan of charts and pickup charts with MACD Bullish Crossings. This works OK *IF* I find the right entry point which I have not been doing a great job I think. I've used setup recommended in one of the books I read. For Long trading when I see a DAILY charts Bullish MACD Crossing I then look at WEEKLY chart of the stock and if WEEKLY is also Bullish with MACD being on uptrend, Stochasticks on Uptrend but post Bullish Crossing, with MACD Histogram is on Uptrending or weaking Bear trace then I put in BUY. For DAILY I take 22-DAY EMA as it represents a one month and for WEEKLY I take 26-EMA as it represents 6 months of trading.
    -This strategy has been working OK but is sending mixed messages, unfortuntely, I either need to get rid of one of the Trend Idicators or the Oscialotor.
    Diary:
    on 8/18/04 I saw a BUY singnal for APCS and entered a trade @ 7.42 and exited @ 7.50 same day eventially stock reached mid $8.00 and now back to $7.64
    on 8/18/04 I saw a BUY singla for WTZ and entered long @ 6.15 and exited same day @ 6.18, eventually stock rallied to $9.00
    and So on...it looks like my SIGNALS don't send consistant messages because some of the trades I entered and existed are trading lower now or my analysis not accurate.

    My bigest loses:
    Long XOMA @ $2.48 and existed @ 2.42, XOMA now trading @ 2.30
    9/14/04 LONG GNSS @ 12.71 and stopped out @ $12.00 and eventially stock rallied and today it's $14.71
    9/1704 LONG AEM 13.22 stopped out @ 13.00 and today stock trading $14.28


    SHORT SALE Experiance
    9/28/04 - SHORTED QSFT @ $10.50 COVERED @ 11.20...today trading @ 11.28
    9/30/04 SHORT ILE @ 9.20 and covered @ 9.55 this morning.

    Now, my question is what am I missing. Any poor trends do you see in my trading pattern? I am afraid I am losing to much money, I lost some this morning on ILE stock. How should fine-tune my Indicators and Oscialtors?


    Any suggestions from the group with any recommendations or constructive crisims is appreciated.

    P.S.
    Thanks for reading a long post.
     
  2. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Why are you trading with real money before you've determined whether or not your system or method is profitable?
     
  3. lindq

    lindq

    In addition to what the typically brilliant dpphoenix said, you appear to be trying to buy into strength, since you are lining up your indicators in that direction.

    Why did you decide on this strategy? What is your reasoning?

    In anything but a strong bull market, it is a very tough strategy to profit from. Strength in a stock will not always lead to greater strength. It's been my experience that more often than not, the opposite is true.
     
  4. Can you elaborate on your expeirence?
     
  5. lindq

    lindq


    Systems aren't built with indicators. They are built with logic. There is a reason for everything. So engage brain first.

    Don't test with your money.

    Buy low, sell higher.

    Trade the stocks of only solid companies.

    Don't get greedy.

    Develop a system and stick to it.

    Know that it will take longer than you think, and will cost more than you plan.
     
  6. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    If you had asked this question of whatever idiot suggested that you begin your trading career the way you did, then perhaps you would have saved yourself several thousand dollars.

    As it is, I have three suggestions:

    1. Stop.

    2. Learn how an auction market works.

    3. Start over from scratch.

    On the other hand, if you are looking for quickie fixes, you came to the right place. They won't save you, but you came to the right place.

    Good luck.
     
  7. Just want to say I appreciate your open and honest suggestions.
     
  8. cosmic

    cosmic

    I recently heard exactly the same advise from some very seasoned scalper - at least regarding the understanding of the auction market process.

    This week I tried partly using my setups from normal indicators, but using the DOM/Market Depth/Order Flow for timing the entry/exit points & it was encouraging.

    Are there any good sources you can suggest for more derivative learnign (books, course, homepages)?

    Thanks in advance & enjoy the weekend,

    cosmic
     
  9. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    If you're asking about the basics of supply and demand, there's the old PV thread (below). But if you're asking about T&S or LII or whatever, I can't help you there. I don't use it.
     
  10. sidinuk

    sidinuk

    JimClark,

    the rules that you are using are mechanical, have you backtested them yourself to see if it does indeed give you an edge. Or are you just believing it works because it says so in a book?
     
    #10     Oct 1, 2004