This is the one place to come for billyjoerob's trading wisdom. billyjoerob is the glad to be the epitome of the "retail trader." He has no system, no software, nothing but intuition, hard-earned discipline and a lazy trigger finger, which has come in handy more than once. This is his public record, for all to mock and marvel.
Long SRS (short 2x IYR) Bearish outside week on the IYR http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IYR&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77833793307 There is a ton of complacency around. The small trading loss at JPM lead to the destruction of $100s of $billions of C, JPM, BAC market cap. C is approaching October lows of around $22. MS is about to be downgraded to junk. Meanwhile, IYR is trading within 10% of recent highs.
There are some reasons to believe complacency is too high. For instance, shorts on financials are still remarkably low. These stocks have gone down for years without much short interest. The fact the banks are going down with low or declining short interest suggests complacency. On BAC for instance, short interst is less than 1x daily volume. I have no idea what BAC's balance sheet is like, but it probably isn't anything close to what they report every quarter. They might be effectively insolvent if the truth got out. Who knows, but in general nobody wants to report the bad news unless every other option has been eliminated. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/sentiment_brief.aspx?ticker=BAC This is another sentiment stat, I don't know quite what it means, put buying:vix. Essentially, lots of put buying plus low vix suggests complacency, or that smart put buyers are being sold cheap insurance. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCE:$VIX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p21355450610
The wrong-way traders at DailyFx are all going long Euro. That suggests further declines for Euro. I don't know what that means, but it probably isn't good news. http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/sentiment/ EURUSD â Forex trading crowds turned aggressively net-long the Euro against the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) as the pair crossed below the key $1.3000 mark, and exceedingly one-sided sentiment continues to favor EURUSD losses. Our retail crowd-based Speculative Sentiment Index tends to work as an accurate contrarian indicator during volatile and trending markets.