OI, here is the 400ma (grey line), 2 days, 5 minute candle, Pivot Point closing charts of both the SP500 and Nasdaq. SP500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nasdaq
looks like they pushed right through those 400ma. I took some losses this morning on DATA and FLT totaling -3780. Those 2 hurt. I also avg into AAPL Aug 10 $207.5 calls totaling ($3,923) looking for AAPL's momentum to push into next week. I don't expect to be in this one too long with momentum on AAPL almost over. Other than that, only JPM calls seem to be holding as SQ Aug 65 calls have pulled back, and I have 2 earning trades that are losing trades right now (GDDY Aug 65 calls and DECK Aug 125 calls). Hopefully, they play out to a positive tune over the next 2 weeks.
Got out of my INTC Aug 17 2018 $47.50 Call and made a small profit of 34%. Got into WB Aug 17 2018 $80.00 Call @$4.10, RUN Aug 17 2018 $14.00 Put @ $1.05.
WB, isn't there an earning report due soon on that one? I've been adding AAPL Aug 10 207.5 calls all morning into and have a nice 40 call position in play now. Right now, that's where I feel momentum is at, so that's where I want most of my account to be at too. I've also added a little more to those SQ Aug 65 calls. It looks like that was a bottom at $68.70.
WB due to report earnings on 08/08/18. Trendwise, has been going down for a while. Looks like at oversold levels though. Look for a pop up. RUN is due to report on 08/09/18. Was recently, downgraded by Morgan Stanley I believe. Looks weak. Maybe, disappointing earnings?
OI, love the journal great job trading. Jeff, nice charts as well. My takeaway from this thread is simple. The W/L is wrapped around 50%, slightly higher but will settle there IMO. The key to profitability has been having outsized wins and being able to hold them for the big gain. Everyone is looking for the sweet entry on the sweet equity, it's less about that than holding for home runs Thanks again, very enjoyable read.
That's exactly my goal, to hit a 50% w/l but be able to raise that risk ratio above 2:1. If I can do that consistently, then that's all I need. I've seen 100% win ratio, but that comes with a risk ratio under 1:1. I've tried, so I'm skeptical when some one advertises on TV telling everyone else that they can hit a 100% win ratio with a high risk ratio. That just doesn't happen on a consistent basis. I've actually just checked my trades this quarter, and it's at 34 wins/30 losses, 53%. Avg winner +2632 and avg loser -1181. Looking ahead, I'm aiming towards positions in ETSY, WTW, and TWLO. All three report on Monday after hours. I want to play ETSY and TWLO straight while setting up an August call spread for WTW. I watched WTW struggle after strong report last quarter, and I'll adjust my strategy on it this time around. The next one on my list after these three is LULU. That one was a big winner last time. I reviewed it's price action, and the last 6 quarters, LULU has rallied after earnings. This move could be close to the end, but the set up this leading up to the report says otherwise. This flat base after last quarter's gap suggests that there's a chance for another gap, although I expect it to be smaller than the last one.
On WTW, they were down for about 3 or 4 days after the last ER, and then they took off from $70ish to $105. Pulled back now. NTRI reported last Monday if they are any help, I didn't read it, but they are taking off nicely now too. Nice volume on Friday. I would hold off on ETSY... I think it might pull back before it starts back up. Pick up the Sept calls on Wednesday or Thursday should be a good play.
Got out of RUN today. Expected it to go down a substantial amount but, with time decay and 11 days left on the option, I decided to bailout at a teeny, tiny loss. Keeping my WB calls which is doing better!
I was in WTW last time around. I took either a small loss or a small gain. That's how I remember that trade right now. I jumped in too early and just played the calls straight. Those were my mistakes. To adjust, I'm going to play it today leading into earnings and use a call spread to lower risk. As for ETSY, I saw the move last time on my streamer. Relatively new, but with the research in and the chart setting up for a 50-day ma bounce, I feel like if ETSY was going to make a move, it would be here at it's earning report. There are levels that ETSY will need to beat to make the move, but with momentum on its side I think there's a good chance ETSY does that. With the new CEO, I think a turn around is just starting. I know ETSY came out mid quarter with a revenue guidance of 32-34% growth. I feel like their CEO might have been a bit cautious on that number just in case. So if the actual numbers come in stronger and the CEO feels like second half revenue growth can stay at 34% or higher, then the move tomorrow should be up to $50.