I think we will know by tomorrow morning. There's GOOG and WHR reporting tonight, but tomorrow we'll see the industrials like MMM, UTX, SHW, along with BIIB and VZ all reporting earnings before the market opens. It could end up being a mixed result, but if enough of these are going in one direction, then that's going to set a trend. I'm negative on WHR and MMM while positive on SHW.
I've adjusted some positions and added some earning positions too. I bought back the googl 1220 calls and sold the 1230 calls. I still wanted to play the call spread, but giving it room to run adding a bit of risk back into the position. I also added MMM Jul 27 $195 puts. I'm betting on MMM to continue to be weak here. That SP500 is fighting to get back above that blue line right now at 2806. There are movers tonight and tomorrow morning so if it holds above this, it should be fun to see confirmation and a push higher or weaker earnings bring it back down.
Closing Micro Trend Chart for July 23, 2018. (SP500, 2 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma, Pivot Points) SP500 closed right on the 400ma (blue line) and very slightly below the Neutral Pivot Point (brown line). It had a nice run up of 10 to 12 points from Pivot Point Support No. 2 (green line) from the beginning of the day to the end of the day near the Neutral Pivot Point (brown line).
Thanks, I thought about going crazy and just playing all the earning reports that I did some research on, but I chickened out. I only have GOOGL call spread and MMM puts. I just read WHR's report, and wow looks like they mentioned Europe, Middle East, and Africa showing lower sales. FY eps guidance is 14.2-14.8 against 15.63 est. That's a huge miss all over. Here's what he said: "we are taking strong actions to improve our operational execution, and remain confident that we will deliver value for our shareholders in the coming quarters," Chief Executive Marc Bitzer said in a statement. After that report, that was all he could say. Looks like it will be sub 140 tomorrow morning. Also peeked at GOOG/GOOGL's report, and there's eps and revenue beat. Looks like that $5B Euro fine will take a hit on earnings, but investors are pushing it up on growth. I watched that jump to 1274, but it is now holding steady between 1250-1260. I wish I had been a little more bullish on this trade. I should have played FB as a derivative on GOOG's earning report too. FB is hitting record levels in the after hours above $214. I haven't looked at TWTR, but I bet social media and anything with online ad revenue is trading up on this. I hope MMM's report can come out a little weaker tomorrow morning.
That blue ma line though. Looks like it closed right on it. The SPY is up +0.25 in the after hours (most likely from GOOG and most of the large cap techs I saw move higher with it). It looks like we're going to get techs up and industrials down tomorrow. Should make for a good push and pull.
OI, its interesting that the SP500 traded in a 13.47 point range today and the VIX index varied from 12.58 to 13.55. Sometimes the relationship between the VIX index values and SP500 daily range is uncanny.
Thank you for your perspectives on averaging down. Very helpful, it helps to answer the inconsistencies.
Your welcome. I took a look this morning at MMM when the report just came out and I thought it was going to be a loser with everything else just running higher this morning, but I second look here and MMM is now at $191.94 -$6.90. Combing through its report, Q2 numbers were mixed at 2.59 on 8.39B vs. 2.61 on 8.36B, but I think cutting the top end of their FY eps was the killer. They pushed FY from 10.20-10.55 to 10.20-10.45 vs. 10.33 est. I'll be looking to exit this on the green. As for GOOGL, I'm going to try to leg out of this position by buying back the 1230 calls first. I've seen GOOGL move on average 2% to its opening price in the direction of its pre-market trend. I've seen this happened about 10 times over the past 6-7 years, so that's how I'll play. In fact, I used to put a play on the 2% post earnings move years ago instead of jumping ahead of the report like I did yesterday. This is probably one of the best open I've had this year, where my calls made money and my puts locked in profits as well. I didn't have time yesterday, but I did lock in those NFLX puts yesterday for +3800 as well as getting stopped out of AMZN calls for a loss of -2565 (bought back the AMZN calls yesterday morning after finding out I was stopped out). This morning, I've closed the MMM puts for +1157, and legged out of the GOOGL 1200/1230 calls for a net gain just under +3200 (including the loss I took on getting in and out of the short GOOGL 1220 calls yesterday). I'm trying to keep track of pure earning trades, and so far I'm up 4 wins/3 losses.
I'm going to use some of the profits from GOOGL and add a GOOGL Jul 27 $1275 call now. I'll ride this one for the week to see if momentum carries it to $1300. Couldn't bear to watch DPZ calls anymore, so I took the loss there at -2300