My trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by optionsinvestor, Nov 14, 2017.

  1. The only earning trade I didn't like is $ADSK. There's a good chance its report is strong again, but that rally from $115 to $129 was just too fast. I added a position in $PVH using the Dec $140 call and $VMW using the Dec $130 call. Just one contract, a small position.
    #41     Nov 28, 2017
  2. Andrew Left's tweet definitely changed the dynamic on $ROKU. Short term momentum is gone at this point. I had to close out 4/6 calls in this position as a day trade. Not what I wanted, but that tweet crushed the momentum. I'll hold the remaining just to ride it out this week. A total loss on the remaining position is possible at this point.
    #42     Nov 28, 2017
  3. Wow, that $ADSK move looks like a short position in play. Restructuring at a time when the market is at an all time high should be a clear red flag. I think we can see fundamentals weaken over the next 1-2 quarters. The shares looked frothy at those levels with no support.

    On the retail side, I picked $PVH ahead of its earnings because of the strength it has shown since it's March quarterly report. The numbers there were a surprise that reversed $PVH's down trend. Since then, shares had slowly climbed higher as eps and sales improved. Heading into this holiday season, I expect $PVH to report solid numbers and guidance as it should be better positioned than most other in the retail sector. Technically, there's a flag formation here that I can set a target to the upside at about $144-$145. I'll take profits even lower at $142-$143 if it reaches those prices by the end of the week.

    As for $VMW, I've been a fan at $100. It's last report was very strong, and unless it pulls something like what $ADSK just did, then I don't expect shares to fall even at these levels. Unless I misread, I saw short interest up at 30% of its float. That high especially given the move it has. If the numbers come in strong and we get a bid, I expect the gap up to be high. Above $130 is possible, and we may even get one of those gap reversals where shares gap high taking out most of the short interest before everyone heads for the exit.
    #43     Nov 29, 2017
  4. Dead cat bounce on $SQ makes for an interesting short position. I will test this technical analysis with a position on $SQ Dec week 2 40 put option. Just a straight technical play on $SQ where I see support at $36. If there's a drop, it is usually fast and furious.

    Also had to close out just about everything else from $SHOP call spread to $VMW earning trade with earnings due out tomorrow. Only thing I kept was the $PVH call position with its earning report due out today after the market closes. I will review $VMW and another possible entry. Looks like I jumped in too early on that one. It also seems like the Nasdaq is diverging and could be an indicator of a short term sell off. Seems like the time to take a short position.
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2017
    #44     Nov 29, 2017
  5. jl1575


    luckily you got out of AMZN yesterday
    #45     Nov 29, 2017
  6. I can't fall in love with a trade. I bought at 5.75 and on Monday morning it was flashing 27-29 minutes off the open. That's a 5 bagger in 3 days, you've got to get out or at least set up a stop loss. What I did was basically a synthetic stop loss where I sold the original position and then set up a new position (1220 calls at 9.5) with no stops on this position when it was set up. I was willing to lose 9 points from my original position without slippage. I watched $AMZN stall yesterday and even though my original stop loss was the entire 2nd position, I saved a few points by just closing out and leaving the trade. But, don't ever fall in love with your winners.

    It was actually much harder to part ways with $MU on Monday when I took a small profit, but I guess I got lucky there too by getting out at that time. Same can't be said about the rest of my account with losses in $SHOP ($192), VMW ($112), and the entire $ROKU position was also a loss at ($13). My total gain in $AMZN was $1,572 after taking a ($641) loss on the 1220 calls. Going forward, I like my entry in $SQ puts, but did you see those weekly $AMZN puts all the way down to the 1150 puts. Massive percentage winners, but I would have had a massive heart attack watching it tick by tick this morning.
    #46     Nov 29, 2017
  7. There might be a momentum play on $ROKU after all, especially after watching the debate from Citron on CNBC today. Looking for a set up to see if there's a potential.
    #47     Nov 29, 2017
  8. The timing of that post was serendipitous.

    Shame the options are so pricey on it right now (unless you're shorting them :D). Nice opportunity on the outright though.
    #48     Nov 29, 2017
  9. Yea, I said that myself and initially I wanted to find a long entry point, but the volume on the drop was huge. I'm talking about 76M shares traded on the drop Monday for $SQ. That compared to its average of about 7-8M shares only from June to Oct 2017. Then yesterday we get 60M and today another 44M shares traded so far. These are sign the uptrend is done, and we should see some kind of 3-6 month base (maybe longer) before another run. I would continue to short on any rally to $48. But then again, shorting the QQQ might be easier with everything just dropping in high volume too. Mega caps like $AAPL is already above its daily average volume. Others like $AMAT and $AMZN are more than double their daily average. This isn't that normal drop I've seen over the past few months. These are big investors getting out. I'm just trying to figure out what they saw (only guess is that tax reform will not pass this year).
    #49     Nov 29, 2017
  10. $WDAY on the radar is starting to show some very good risk ratio. The $WDAY $110/$115 call spread is at a 2.3:1 ratio. $WDAY is well within its channel trend and I'm only looking for a $115 target. Only downside is if eps or revenue drops below estimates. Still, I like the trade and took 1 call spread.
    #50     Nov 29, 2017