I also took profits on JPM Jul 105 calls. The run on JPM was solid this morning, but I wanted to have more cash on hand for trades this week, and I'm not too confident on the earnings report from GS tomorrow morning. The profits were nice on JPM, and along with about 1/2 the AMZN calls I closed this morning, I've locked in +3540 in profits this week. It took about 3 weeks to gain any traction, but I've finally cracked the +10k this morning in realized/unrealized gains. I still like the price action in AMZN, GOOGL, and ADBE (weak today, but vol is just 33% of daily avg right now).
Well, it feels like everything I jump into an AMZN trade, it prints money for me. I was definitely surprised to see AMZN going above 1840 earlier today, although it has retreated with the weakness in tech starting to show. Now knowing I'm showing a nice gain in AMZN is allowing me to test out other trades. I did that just this afternoon. I legged into a reverse iron condor on NFLX buying the Jul 415/425 calls and jul 370/380 puts. I saw the straddle showing a move of 8.8% in either direction. I'm betting on at least 7.5% in either direction to get a max return. I also still have the NFLX Jul 420 call played from an earlier position, so I'm leaning to the long side, but I'll take either side at this point. The risk on this trade is about -1300.
I thought I might take a hit on NFLX 420 calls, and those are going to be a total loss, as well as the nflx 415/425 call spread. I'm going to milk the put spread for as much as I can. I also took this opportunity to add to my GOOGL Jul 27 $1200 calls at the open. I can't see how GOOGL loses everything in sympathy to the other FANG stocks and not gain it back quick especially given its earning report is due next week. I also closed out the AMZN Jul calls this morning. Today does seem like a great opportunity to jump into some of these positions so I'll be looking for it after pulling over $10k out of positions yesterday. And I'm doing a dead cat bounce trade. Added NFLX Jul 20 $357.5 calls for this bounce. It looks like a day trade to me. I had to make I was above $25k for this day trade to keep out of margin calls.
OI, from a Micro Trend stand point (5 minutes candles, 400ma, Pivot Points), the SP500 has had 8 consecutive closing days above the 400ma. Today was the first day it momentarily dipped below the 400ma, but then recovered so far. ___________________________________________________________________________ The bigger picture problem is, the SP500 has never really had a true break out above 2800, (at least not yet). Didn't William O'Neil from IBD use to say, a breakout is at last a +1% move above resistance on a closing basis?
Hey jeff, I use IBD a lot to start too. They throw out stocks with charts and then I do my research on it to set up my own positions. IBD jumps on these rallies quick though. I used to grab the newspaper to check up on "The Big Picture" (I believe that was the section) to see how the market is doing. I haven't looked at IBD lately, but my guess was that the rally started around July 1st, and confirmation came last Monday in that higher volume up day. I was keeping an eye on the SP500 and looking at banks and techs to really push the sp500 above 2800. Initially, it looked like the banks were just going to tank, but then yesterday all the banks rallied nicely and there were records on GOOGL and AMZN holding techs high. Had NFLX also surprised higher I think we would have been easily above 2810 by now, but wow that report on NFLX was ugly. If I saw it correctly, I think they missed on revenue guidance too. I'm actually surprised that the sp500 is able to hold steady right now. This will give the next wave of earning reports a chance to push it higher (although IBM isn't too high on my earnings beat list). If IBM surprises and then MSFT follows later this week, then we might get something. Otherwise, I think 2800 is going to stay for a bit. I just wanted to add that I'm out of the NFLX 357.5 calls locking in profits over +3000 on this trade. I rolled up to the 370 calls, but I'm not sure if I'll add to the gains or get stopped out. Added at 4.35 with stop at 3.00 right now.
Looks like NFLX is printing money today, especially on the calls at the open. I closed out those NFLX Jul 357.5 calls for a gain of +2078 at 10.25 stopped price. Then I realized I sold too soon, so I jumped in NFLX Jul 370 calls at 4.17 avg and those are giving an unrealized gain of +2132 right now. Can't say enough about these moves. The only thing I really did wrong today was close out the final 1/2 of my amzn jul 1820 calls too soon, because those calls are now hitting highs with AMZN at records again. Overall, I do believe this morning turned out to be a great buying in techs. Weak buyers came out quick, and that gave some great opportunities. I loved the GOOGL and ADBE additions I made this morning. Those nflx 370 calls are above $16 right now, and I've added NFLX Jul 400 calls too at 3.12 avg. I think NFLX hits 400 before week end, but I wouldn't be surprise if we get 400 end of day.
OI, in the many years of using the micro trend chart (5 minute candles, 400ma, Pivot Points) that I am always posting (hope you don't mind) on your thread, I discovered that usually a very powerful move up comes from this mornings setup: (1) SP500 has been closing above the 400ma for at least a few days. (2) SP500 dips down to around the "rising" 400ma (Grey Line) while at the same time its near the Pivot Point Support Line No. 2 (Green Line). This setup that occurred today doesn't come up often, but when it does it rarely fails to explode upward.
Thanks for the chart Jeff, and I don't mind the charts at all, keep them coming. That SP500 move is powerful! This morning, I was watching to see if it can bounce back above 1200, and once it did there was nothing to really hold it back right up to 1210. I'm up $10k (closed and opened trades) today alone. That's one of the biggest move I've seen this year on a percentage basis. It was about a 38.5% gain on my account on this move. If this holds today, I can feel momentum the next 2 days as weak buyers come back in late. Avg down on NFLX jul 400 calls right here under 2.00.
My math based system had me buy SPY AUG283 Calls (Exp. 8/17) at 1.40 yesterday and looking for a 1.96 (+40%) exit today or in the next few days. Because of the Sequence ( seq 7) of this Call Micro Trend, combined with Low VIX ( < 15 ), the system math formula is looking for only a modest profit.
That looks like a nice trade Jeff, especially given the fact that it was just trend following. With the gains today, I've added more risks on the earnings side. I bought CSX Jul 65 calls at 1.04 avg price (actually had to avg up on this trade). I'm looking for CSX to bounce from this level post earnings. Nothing more. I did get stopped out of the nflx 370 calls and I'm leaving the 400 calls alone letting them ride to the end of the week.