You know, I kept waiting for financials to come around because interest rates have held steadily higher, but there's just no bid on this sector. You can basically draw a channel between 26.6-28.3 and buy or sell on a break out from that channel. I'd say that 200-day ma might even give you a head start to the downside. The 10-year is stuck in limbo, but I feel like the picture for the next 12-18 months isn't as clear. For now, that chart's not my kind of chart. It's made for scalping. I bet we get a better direction after the midterms. I have looked at my recent trades, especially the ones I have right now. Interestingly, that LULU Jul 110 call I avged in at $4.27 is now at 19.85 +365%. I can only imagine how much more wild the higher strikes are right now. It does feel like my picks are correctly chosen, but I'm more cautious and tend to stick closer to at the money options. I will have to test out these options that are farther out and see how they play out over a period of 4-6 weeks. The thing is that it will be hard to put $5-$10k in such a position knowing that the probability of a total loss is just much higher. I will take a look and see if there's a balance somewhere in between though.
I'm getting out here on all positions while the gains are still high. I just don't feel like Trump has an end game in sight, which means this trade war can last all Summer long.
Not sure what you mean since Trumps already presented the rules of his game. Currently the end game is in the hands of the other players. The balls in their court unless you think trump should back down? and I don't think it would set a very good precedents for him to buckle at the knees to nations that have been living on the backs of Americans. It has to be give and take and not just take. Good luck with your choices. cheers!
I don't disagree that something has to be done, and I'm not even knocking on Trump's choice to start it all. He also shouldn't back down, but it clearly felt like he didn't have steps 2-5 set so now he's playing on impulse, and that's where the advantage goes more to China. I'm still hoping he actually does have a plan to get through this trade war maze, but right now it feels like he's just trying to one up China. Just the way he mentioned that he'll have US trade rep Lighthizer draw up a list that adds up to the new $200B tells me he didn't plan this far out. I would have thought there was a plan in place from start to finish. And this is why I feel the market doesn't like it too. It's the living from moment to moment that's too unpredictable.
The Chinese made a very small token offer of increasing purchases of US goods. They were not really serious about it! Had they been and just said, okay, we will order more US goods. Try to have fair trade by ordering the same amount they export from the US, this would have been over! I do not think the Chinese are that stupid to actually, want a trade war that will hurt them more than the US. More likely, they are trying to have a deal which still favors them somewhat. President Trump might give them that. Say, okay until 2020, you can export $200 billion to the US and just buy $150 billion in US goods. However, starting in 2021, for every $200 billion you export in Chinese goods to the US, you have to buy $200 billion in US goods! That deal can be signed because both parties are making an effort to address the problem. President Trump does not have all the items to be subjected to tariffs. That is the job of Lighthizer. Market reacts to news faster but, can do a 180 if suddenly, a trade deal is announced! I have confidence in President Trump's ability to strike deals as he has been doing that all his life! How many can actually, say that?
Not trying to bring a discussion like this to a journal of value, but its just his style. Nothing wrong with doing the uncomfortable after all its how he got to where he is. He's from New York and that's how the cut throats operate, no dancing, just go for the throat. No need to go backwards to tap dance like Obama did. Just Keep the Faith.
Hurricane just brought something to the surface, his post is gone now but, How much do we owe china? In Dec of 2017 they held 6.3 trillion of our debt? This is in Trumps favor, ( and This is Trumps poker face) Anyway have nice trading day.
You coming around on this thought? Volume is above average today, the later day volume is stronger and on rising prices. Overall, a lot of charts will put in a technically bearish candle today, but it looks like a bear trap to me. Also, 52 week high / low is above 1.00 and RUT is outperforming. Looks like a building dragonfly landing on that trendline. Every time a long tail has pierced the trendline, we've put in a solid green candle the next day. TL;DR: BTFD. I know, right? Who wouldn't be shitting holding that man's debt. At 3-f'ing percent, no less.