Not yet NFLX. I believe NFLX can hit $400. I did close out DOCU Jun 60 calls thought with entry at 1.41 and exit at 5.07 including comm. The actual gain only came out to +259%, so not quite the homerun trades I'm looking for considering I took -100% losses on TSLA 330 calls and FIVE 105 calls last week and I am expected to take a -100% loss on THO 105 calls this week too. I'll say that the total loss on TSLA and FIVE were smaller at -171 total, while the hit on THO is expected to be -216. Instead of using the same weight, I was still testing it out and started with 2 calls each. I also had 2 calls on DOCU, as well as ADBE Jun 260 calls and TTWO Jun 22 $120 calls. I broke the 2 calls with NFLX here going 3 on these NFLX Jun 400 calls. In theory, I will need 3 of every 10 homerun trades to hit +300% for me to break even until I hit it big with the huge home run hit. If I can get 5/10 winners, then it'll definitely keep me in play longer. Once I figure the correct ratio I want to play, I'll raise the risk to $1000 per trade. I haven't really added any big positions lately (just playing these small home run trades), but SQ, AAPL, LULU, and NVDA all have moved my account around. It has been bouncing between $110-$121K. There have been a lot of potential trades that I've skipped out on in the past 2 weeks, but it is Summer so there's no need to over extend. And I think you mentioned NVDA. That one is flying today. It took a while, but looks like NVDA finally broke out from $265.
I know TSLA is getting a lot bashing over at the TSLA thread, but I thought I felt this momentum coming. I just screwed up and misplayed the TSLA home run trade. I should have gone out an extra week to see how this momentum plays out. It looks like those 350 calls expiring tomorrow were trading between 0.80-1.00. It would have fit my home run pattern. I'll say I'm making some progress though.
OI, you had mentioned there would be trouble a 2,800 and today the SP500 is breaking down below its 400ma micro trend. Chart below is 5 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma (grey line), with Pivot Points:
Sure does look like it broke down from 2800. The next step is to see if it marks a higher low and keeps this trend of higher highs and higher lows going. There were just too many events going on this weekend to keep the market quiet. I watched my account seesaw all week. Started down Monday, up Tuesday, and so on with today being another down morning (although I've noticed some techs breaking that trend). The bounce in tech this morning allowed me to get out of some trades (especially the home run trades). I closed out AAPL Jul 190 calls too, took a loss of -1277 and taking a full loss on ADSK 135 puts at -2138. On the home run experiment, I took a loss on the ADBE home run trade today at -410. On the plus side, I took a profit on NFLX 400 calls at +361 and TTWO 120 calls at +467. I'm down to 3 positions: LULU Jul 110 calls, SQ Jul 55 calls, and the 2 NVDA positions (NVDA Jul 255 calls and NVDA Aug 260 calls), but the position size is still big here with $39K in play. Overall, I feel like AAPL is part of the trade war play. I thought BA, CAT, BABA, and BIDU would be the only major stocks affected by this, but looks like AAPL is also following that event.
LOL, I'm with you on the bargains. In fact, that was me years ago trying to pick the bottom off everything. The thing is this bull market has made it easier to pick break outs, so I'll take what the market gives. We're all pilot fishes in this ocean. On a home run note, I've collected a bit of data on my trades. It is better to give these trades over a week to run. I know I'm looking for short term with high returns, but 1-2 days isn't enough. The momentum run right after events were much easier to trade than momentum rallies/selling that were not event related. These momentum rallies are very short term and don't last longer than 3 days. I took ADBE calls ahead of earnings and watched those 260 calls run nicely from $2.20 to $4.50 ahead of its report before crashing to a total loss post earnings. This was only one trade, so I need a couple more like this to see if there's a pattern. Overall, if the move I was looking for didn't occur within 2 days, then closing the trade early is better. If the momentum rally takes hold, then I can hold the position for 2-3 more days before selling. I didn't use the same position size for all the trades to start so the first 2 trades had initial risk under $90. I'll use the percentage gain/loss to keep all trades on the same page. The trades came out as shown below: FIVE jun 8 $105 call from 0.43 to 0 -100% TSLA jun 8 $330 call from 0.86 to 0 -100% DOCU jun $60 call from 1.41 to 5.06 +258% ADBE jun $260 call from 2.19 to 0.14 -94% NFLX jun $400 call from 0.77 to 1.98 +157% TTWO jun 22 $120 call from 1.23 to 3.56 +189% Leveling everything out, it does show that my actual win/loss of 50% was actually better than my anticipated 20-30% ratio. That helped with the winners coming in below my 300-500% expected return vs. the actual average winner only at +201%. I'm going to test for another 2 weeks to get better data and experience with these well out-of-the-money options as I'm more used to options at the money/in the money.
IMHO, home run trades usually need more time than a week. Perhaps you may want to go back to your old trades, backtest to see if holding them pass a week will get you better equivalent returns.
OI, that's actually a good W/L record and good net total profit on those 6 home run trades. 3 wins at +604% 3 losers at -294% ----------------------- Net Profit +310% As long as your initial investment risk per trade is always relatively equal, this is a workable plan. This is a decent supplemental trading plan in addition to your regular trading methodology.
Saw a guy on You Tube. His name is Tyler Chianelli and he trades LEAPS which are longer term options and claims huge gains on trading out of the money options but, he gives it a lot of time. Like 9 months to 1 year out. It might be too risky to try and get huge monster like results from out of the money calls unless, it is only 1 strike out of the monies. Then, the gamble, using shorter term options might be worth it.