My trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by optionsinvestor, Nov 14, 2017.

  1. After taking out the positions I wanted to exit, I started with the spread on $SHOP. I felt like that $120 target on $SHOP by December 15 is on spot, so I took a spread using $SHOP $110/$120 calls. With the $SHOP position in play, I also jumped back into $ADI. The numbers were good, and I believe the drop should last no more than 1-2 days. I bought the $ADI Dec $90 call for a cost of ($176). I also took a position back into $AMAT. I reviewed the move, and $AMAT could be above $61 by December 15, 2017. I took $AMAT's Dec 57.5 call for a cost of about ($406). I will set up stop losses on $AMAT and $SHOP, because should the market drop next week, I rather jump in cash right away and just hold off until the new year.

    I haven't talked about the $MU position I took last week, but then again $MU has been quietly trading higher from about $45 to this morning's $49, and there's really nothing to add to it yet. I expect the bid to continue higher up to about $50-$51 where I'll have to decide if I want to roll up or exit. Right now, there's the earnings play coming up in December that should continue to keep shares higher. The gains from $WMT and $AMAT last week gave me a net gain of about $1,180. This morning's closed trades added another $135 or so. I would still like to hit $4,000 by the end of next week, but I'm not going to push it unless I see some opportunities in play.
    #21     Nov 21, 2017
    vanzandt likes this.
  2. I watched $DE, $CRM, and $GME for any clues to their earnings today/tomorrow morning. $DE looks ripe for a reversal, but as long as $CAT shows solid results, there's always a chance that $DE turns around too. I liked $CRM about 2 weeks ago at $99 when the Najarians talked about option players playing the call side. It's now at $107 and the easy money is done for now.

    Only trade left with any sort of surprise is $GME. This one's going to be close. Last year, $GME jumped higher on its earning report, and then dropped the next 3 quarters on weak results. It almost feels like a replay here from last November where shares dropped ahead of its actual report only to rally back to short term highs. Here it is again with $GME falling from $21 to $16, potentially due to EA's Star Wars BF2 micro transactions issues. At this point, I think $GME guides inline to higher than estimates. The shares look like it's ready for a bounce. I see a lot of intraday swings in $GME the past few days with indecision from open to close. Bears and bulls aren't winning here, so any inline results/guidance should translate into bears giving up in the short term. Come January, this thing will be back down to $15, but a bounce here to me is likely. I'm going to take those $GME Nov week 4 $17 calls under $0.80. At this point, the risk is small and I'm willing to see what happens in the after hours.
    #22     Nov 21, 2017
  3. Looked over the numbers for $GME, and the only thing I didn't like is that they just reaffirmed FY guidance even after showing a Q3 beat. That clearly puts pressure on Q4 to be lower than anticipated. On the upside, the comp sales are slightly higher than current estimates. Shares were going to go higher on any good news, and Q3 beat along with slightly better comp sales have pushed the shares to about $18. I didn't expect it to go above $19, but I think that's a possibility after watching the initial rally jump above $19. Either way, my cost was ($231) on this trade, so I'm not as concern. On the upside, any profits on $GME should help push me above $3500.

    I've also decided I'm going to roll up my $MU position. Shares are close to my $51 target, and when it reaches that level I will expect some sort of pullback/consolidation. Once it pulls back, I'd like to get back in and hold it through the end of the year.
    #23     Nov 21, 2017
  4. All three earning stocks went as I expected. $CRM was too high heading into earnings and a 1-2 point fall back even on a good report was very likely. $CRM is down this morning at -1.74. $DE should have been traded last Friday. At yesterday's price, the $138 calls were around $3.20-$3.70, and I felt like the risk ratio would have been under 1. That meant $DE would have to open above $43.50 just to hold the ratio at 1:1. With the big drop in last quarter's report, this was a wild card. It was not a short play (put trade), only because CAT's numbers were so much better than estimates that there was a chance it would carry over to its peers like $DE.

    If only I was actually up for the day after closing out $GME this morning for a profit. Instead, the drop in $ADI and $AMAT pushed me into a wash. That drop in $ADI at the end of the day was unexpected. Everything else seems to fall in line. I decided to set a stop loss for the $ADI options at $0.50. At that price, shares of $ADI would have fallen low enough that the momentum upwards is broken in the short term.
    #24     Nov 22, 2017
  5. Missed out on $AMZN this morning. I had $AMZN Dec week 1 $1175 calls all set up, but took the kids shopping and came back forgetting to enter the trade. That was a quick run, but after watching how light the crowd was out there, I got into an $AMZN position using $AMZN Dec week 1 $1190 call @ $5.75. Just looking for a quick ride through the weekend. Black Monday's numbers won't be out until Tuesday, so the run should last through Monday and I'll close out Monday before the market closes or roll up depending on how $AMZN trades Monday. The cost is high, so I did set up a stop loss at $2.00. I don't want to over play myself with this one. As for everything else, it's all still in play. Hopefully $ADI does find support at the 50-day around $88 and bounces back. Fundamentals were strong and the uptrend should continue.
    #25     Nov 24, 2017
  6. I also finished reading a couple of articles on the $AVGO/$QCOM merger, and I think $AVGO is going to raise its price to at least $80 for $QCOM. We could see $85 for good measures. Shares of $QCOM should rally from its current $68 to at least $75-$80 depending on the new price that $AVGO is willing to pay. I don't think the merger goes through though, because I could still be too cheap for $QCOM. $AVGO knows what it's doing by trying to grab $QCOM at its lows. This reminds me of Sandisk ($SNDK) receiving offers at $25 per share back in the middle of the great recession when it was trading at $12-$13. It took 6 more years before $SNDK was finally sold at a much higher price of $86.50, but it's similar to me here. $QCOM is clearly at its individual low point right now, and $AVGO can smell the blood in the water.

    I don't believe $QCOM is going to go any lower at this point, there's no where else to go but up in the short term. I want to take the $QCOM Dec 70 call for a wait and see approach. If $AVGO announces the new price point, shares will go up with volatility staying elevated because of the potential merger staying in play. It could be 2-3 months before this merger goes through or falls through, so there's room for a quick profit here.
    #26     Nov 24, 2017
  7. What a nice record close for the day. Getting into that $AMZN position even after shares were higher helped push my account to my target of $4,000 by end of the year. I thought I might get it by today, but that $AMZN position really helped pull it through. Shares of $AMZN closed at $1186, and this is on a bet that online sales this year is ahead of estimates. Some data were showing online sales up +17% this year, and we know a big portion of that goes straight into $AMZN's pockets. If shares continue higher on Monday, I'll have to roll up the position. Everything else is within range where I will hold onto those positions.

    I want $ADI and $AMAT to start showing life next week, or I'll close out those positions and take the loss. $QCOM is going to be more of a long term play with a cost of ($367) on those Dec 70 calls. I'm ready to close out $MU soon if it can break through $50 and $SHOP is slowly climbing to that $120 target. I've mentally raised my target to $7,000 by the end of the year. I believe that target is within range as long as the $AMZN trade continue to show potential. I do like $ADSK and $PVH for some earnings play next week.
    #27     Nov 24, 2017
  8. I've done a lot of trading since starting 2 weeks ago. I'm sure my broker is making bucks on that end. I just checked and I closed out 6 winners and 2 losers for a net gain of $1,476. On top of that, I have 6 opened positions in play, although the $ADI and $AMAT positions were practically roll over positions. Right now, I do feel like I'm over exposed.
    #28     Nov 25, 2017
  9. vanzandt


    Park it all in Paypal on a correction.
    #29     Nov 25, 2017
  10. vanzandt


    #30     Nov 25, 2017