OI, Oil, Gold and the VIX are all uptrending above the 200 day moving average on above average volume. These three are usually contrarian investments and indicators in a questionable bull market. Crude Oil Gold VIX
I feel we're getting to that point Jeff. The only thing holding us back is that interest rates are still too low. If we do get 7 rate hikes over the next 2 years, then we could be very close to at least a recession. For today, I added FB Apr 165 calls at 4.73 avg. I'm looking for FB to hit 172 over the next few days based purely on momentum. I have HES and COP both working well for me, and that allows me to increase my risk in this market. So far this month, I've took a realized loss of -1200, but have HES and COP giving me an unrealized gain of +2800.
As you will notice, there has been a strong bullish activity on FB options on tuesday 10. So may be, you are in good company
Well, we seem to be running a bit more smoothly the last two days. I added GS Apr 262.5 calls ahead of JPM's report this morning, and GS itself does have its earning report early next week. Also added the NFLX Apr 320 calls ahead of its report last week. Both are looking good so far. I'm ready to close out some of the oil stocks. Will look to do that if I get a good price.
Nothing much today. I've closed the FB calls for a loss taking another loss. Also set up the call spread on NFLX using short 340 calls against my 320 calls. I did add more GS 262.5 calls slashing my cost down by nearly half. I'm also tempted to close out the HESS and COP positions, but those two hit new highs today and I'll hold on for another day. I'd like to adjust these positions by the end of this week though.
Locked in loss in GS at -240. Locked in gain on the NFLX 320/340 call spread at +1430. I also expect to take full loss on DKS at -707. Overall, I'll call it a wash. I still have the oil trade and I'm going to add to oil stocks taking on new breakouts from other energy stocks that are just breaking out. I'll look to close out HES while doing this. I also added a small position on NFLX 330 calls looking for a momentum run over the next 2-3 days. This will be a short term play with a stop loss around 2-2.50. Overall, the market is starting to hold its gains without any negative white house news.
Well, what a day. Locked in gains on NFLX 330 calls for +2270 (4.35 to just above 10 avging out). I still wanted to stay in NFLX, but the move is too strong and I wanted lower risk. So I adjusted buy selling those 330 calls and getting the Apr 340 calls at 4.15. Looks like I've come full circle on the 340 calls. I still believe NFLX has enough momentum to run higher. On another note, the oil stocks are ticking higher again. HES and COP May calls are giving me unrealized gains in the +5600 range, and I will have to lock in some of these calls to limit risk. My original risk in these two trades were about 10% of account. They are now at 24% of account. I started April and this quarter with a net loss of -1200 the first 2 weeks, but have locked in gains of +2900 this week and holding above $43.4K as long as I don't erode too much of these oil gains. The market is back in rally mode, and I have about 30% in positions (although most are in those 2 oil stocks).
Closed out 1/2 of the COP May 60 calls today locking in +1260 in gains. I want to add other oil stocks that just broke out of patterns the past 2 days. We'll see if I can get a good price on those.
I added quite a few positions today. Calls in TSLA May 300, UNH June 240s, INTC May 50, and CMG June 350. Also added new oil stock in PSX May 105 call. Completely closed out the COP position today after locking in some profits yesterday. Total gains on that was +2900, but I took a loss on LRCX calls at -1272. Also closed out NFLX 340 calls at a loss -606. I also closed some of my HES May 50 calls today. Overall, I locked in gains of +5478 so far this week. I'm rotating out of some big oil winners and taking on new breakouts. We'll see if this market holds going into heavy earning reports next week.
I jumped early last week after NFLX's solid report on the expected market rally into earnings, but then Trump's talk about Iran and some of the recent earning reports have stalled the market. I took out losers and added to some of the ones I thought might make a come back. I had a solid gain in TSLA calls, but ended with a loss of -1100. Also took a loss on JPM at -192. I closed out PSX calls with a good profit at +1739, still holding HES. I also locked in small profits in NFLX and CREE this morning totaling +164. On positions I'm still holding, UNH showing unrealized loss of -1060, INTC -971 (avg down the last 2 days), and CMG at -467 (also avg down the past couple of days). I still have a good chunk of my HES May 50 calls, but the gains area smaller at +2100. CMG and INTC are earning trades this week, and once that's out of the way, I'll be down to 3 positions. Overall, I'm sitting at $40.8k, down from a high of $45k last week, but I'll wait and see. With increased volatility, it is getting much harder to see those profits, and I'm adjusting to that.