I rolled up the $WMT position believing shares should continue higher with a black Friday target of $99-$100. Sold my $WMT calls for net gain for about $335. I bought 2 $WMT Nov week 4 96 call @ 0.90 for ($186). I think another 4% higher from $95.50 is highly probable at this point. If other retailers are struggling, it should draw more investors into $WMT.
Thanks, I'll feel better once $AMAT can confirm a solid earning report after the market closes today.
I was tempted to close out the 2 WMT Nov week 4 96 call that I had just bought this morning when I rolled up the $WMT position, but I didn't want to get hit with a day trade. So, I am leaning at selling this trade tomorrow as it has hit my $99-$100 target already. Those options jumped from $0.90 to $3.75 at the close today. **adding** Just updating what I saw in the AMAT report. $0.93 on $3.97B both numbers better than estimates. It's backlog is at $6B +32% from year ago numbers. $AMAT's Q1 guidance was also above estimates, and it looked like shares started after hours down to $56.30 after the initial news, but I see it trading near $59.40 at 4:50pm est. Over all, I couldn't have expected anymore from these 3 trades. My initial goal is to increase my account from $2,000 to $4,000 by the end of the year, but it definitely could be higher.
The morning looks good. With $AMAT hitting my target of $58-$59 this morning, I will close this trade. I am also going to take 1/2 of the $WMT Nov week4 96 call this morning too with $WMT hitting my target of $99-$100 yesterday at the close. I'll take the profits on one option, and let the other one ride with a stop loss of $2.00. If $WMT can hit $100 today, then $105 is a possibility by next Friday. I'm going to have to do some research this weekend and setup some trades into December.
I thought $AMAT might trade in the same manner it had the past 2 quarters where it opens up, rallies a bit to notch the day's high, then falls back and closes below its opening price. I got out of my $AMAT calls as early as possible. I also started the day closing out 1 of the $WMT calls, but with shares below $97.50 I decided to close out the entire position to take full profits and just back off for the weekend. The only position I have left is $MU Jan 2018 45 call. I locked in $613 in gains from the entire $WMT trade, and made $571 on the $AMAT position. I like $DE going into its earning next week as well as $PANW.
I like both, $PANW and $DE, after reviewing both stocks over the weekend. $PANW was in a much better position to make a move up to $160 where resistance will keep it in check. The pattern from recent lows heading into earnings the past 2 quarters have showed about a 20 point move starting from $115 to $140, then $127 to $147. At $PANW's recent low of $135, I'd be looking for a target of about $155. Unfortunately, the options IV are much higher than the previous two positions I took, so I legged into a call spread position this morning. As for DE, I'll watch its trading pattern tomorrow to get a better idea of the move, although a selloff would be much stronger than a gap higher if it happens. **Also like the pattern in Agilent Tech. ($A). It should be a solid 2-3 point jump higher with a slow grind from now until the December 15 expiration for the options. Just a small position with 2 $A Dec $70 call @ $1.80 avg ($366).
The $PANW spread (Nov wk 4 $145/$152.5 calls) cost me ($316). I thought about playing a higher spread to lower the initial risk, but I wouldn't have much room left with my expected target at $155 or higher. I have watched Agilent's last 2 report were totally surprised myself at the unexpected guidance going forward. Guidance for the recent quarter was much better than estimates, and I believe the trend should continue. The recent dip to its 50-day moving average also gives room for a surprise gap higher if current quarter guidance beats estimates again. At this point, I have no reason to believe that $A can't keep up the increased eps and revenue outlook for at least another quarter. If I get a 4-5% gap tomorrow morning I'll have to lock in gains, otherwise, I can let this one run it's course and see where it stands by mid-December. Going back to the semiconductor group, $ADI is also due out with earnings soon (tomorrow morning). The breakout quarter was clearly the last quarter with shares jumping from $78 to $84, testing that $84 level for 2 weeks with a handle, and then punching through without looking back. There was also a sizable drop last week on this one before today's massive rally pushing it right through resistance and new highs already. I know the semiconductor sector has been on fire, so the easiest route should be higher at this point. I feel like $ADI's going to give a midpoint gap to the current trend this quarter where we could see the trend end in 1-2 months around $102-$104 before buyers are exhausted. I also took a position on this trade using $ADI's Dec 95 call for a total cost of ($193). I just about used up all of the recent profits on these 3 trades. I'm done for the day. If I can make more profits on some of these positions, I would like to jump back into $AMAT for a 2 week hold (weak sellers should be out of the trade by now). I also like price action in $SHOP with what looks like a double bottom and a short term target of $120.
Damn, that's a shame. $A guided light on Q2, and that's usually a catalyst for a drop tomorrow morning. After hours show a drop to $66.70 already. The options will be close to $0.20-$0.40 tomorrow morning only because of the time value left. On the other hand, $PANW is going as expected with a solid earnings all around. Shares are right up to my upper limit on the spread at $151.90 in the after hours, but I think there'll be a pop above $155 as there have been a white candle the past 2 quarterly reports. I should be able to make back the loss from $A and then a some. I hope $ADI comes through tomorrow too, but then that sector has been strong so I shouldn't expect anything less. I was hoping to reach $4k by the end of this week, but the loss on $A will hold it back. I think 2 week holds on $SHOP and $AMAT should be in the cards tomorrow.
My mistake, I should have jumped on $DE last Friday when it was in my radar. Shares have just jumped higher and are even higher this morning in pre-market to $139. It's too late to even think about a decent rally post earnings report. Same can be said with $CRM. $ADI reported the earnings result I wanted to see this morning with a strong guidance and 54% revenue increase. Momentum is just picking up and I think there should be room to run. I will hold onto to this trade, while closing out $A and $PANW today. Although I like $PANW, that 8% move this morning should keep any new buyers at bay while also hitting my 20 point target from the recent low of $135. Instead, I'll look at getting back into $AMAT for a 3-4 week run and a possible trade into $SHOP (which I've been following the past 3-4 weeks especially after Citron's short thesis. This Andrew Left guy is clearly a short term trader and doesn't have the long term view like other short players. He told folks to short $NVDA at $120, and I can't help but imagine he probably helped some long positions out of the trade at $120. Here we are 11 months later and $NVDA is sitting at $215 with a nearly 80% pop (ouch to those who got out at that time). I think sellers in $SHOP are gone now, and the path of least resistance is up. UPDATE This was an interesting open, I was able to close out the $A position at a higher price than I expected, but took a bigger loss on the $ADI trade. Instead of holding the $ADI Dec 95 calls, the sell off this morning allowed me to adjust my position and get into $ADI's Dec 90 call at a better pricing. I still like $ADI, but adjust my position because of the sell off this morning. I also bought back the $PANW Nov week 4 $152.5 calls at $3.36 and will leg out of the spread by selling the long calls very soon. Just as I took each leg separately into the spread, I will leave the spread in the same manner. I wanted to complete the adjustments on these trades before making the new ones.