My thesis on what happens next.........

Discussion in 'Economics' started by flytiger, Oct 8, 2008.

  1. The fifties and sixties only seem good because they're over, and you know how they turned out.

    I remember my father digging ditches once. I checked it out, and in 1957, there was a horrible recession. In the sixties, you 'd know a kid that graduated from high school, and 20 weeks later, he stepped on a land mine. And don't compare Iraq to Vietnam. It was worthless, and they threw lives away. It was horrible. Good manufacturing base though.

    don't fall for that 'the good ole' days,' bullshit. If you do the right thing here, this will be the good old days somedays.

    On topic a bit more, Italy banned all short selling, and Nederland is backing all financial institutions. Again, per the original post, the Western World pulls out all stops, keeping the original thesis alive.
     
    #41     Oct 10, 2008
  2. Mav88

    Mav88

    In a way we are back to 50s and 60s, the great Keynesian experiment worked for a few decades until we paid for it in the 70's and early 80s. All the gov't had to do was print money faster than it was being spent.

    Now though is different than the 30s, then the gov't was just starting socialism and all of FDRs ignorant experiments. Now we are moving deeper into the abyss.

    If Canada, Sweden, and places like that can survive their wefare state crisis then maybe we can too.
     
    #42     Oct 10, 2008
  3. jprad

    jprad

    Vietnam was horrible because the general population got to see what it did to those you knew directly or indirectly.

    Iraq is much worse because it's abstract to most people, there is no draft forcing a representative sample of the population into it.

    Like it or not, conscription is a greater deterrent to war than anything else.
     
    #43     Oct 10, 2008
  4. I was talking of the casulties, and the stupidity and waste. Those field officers of that day are the commanders now. Their attitudes are much different than butchers like Allen.

    BTW. The draft. The military doesn't want it. And I can't figure out why. But you're right. You inject a civilian component that would not normally choose military life. That was an argument for the draft, btw.
     
    #44     Oct 10, 2008
  5. It's playing out:

    Tony Crescenzi Blog
    Fed Reports Huge Surge in Currency
    By Tony Crescenzi
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/10/2008 11:18 AM EDT
    URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/tcrescenziblog/10441812.html

    The Federal Reserve's printing press is rolling. New data released late Thursday by the Federal Reserve indicate that in the week ended Oct. 8, the total amount of currency in circulation increased $8.081 billion to $844.49 billion, the largest weekly increase since the week ended Dec. 27, 2006.

    The past week's gain brings the three-week increase to $12 billion, a fast pace given that currency in circulation tends to increase at a rate of just 4% to 5% per year. The past week's gain was Christmas-like in the sense that gains of such magnitude are typically only seen around the Christmas holiday in response to seasonal demands for currency.

    The Fed's balance sheet on the whole grew massively again in the latest week, by almost $100 billion to $1.575 trillion, in part because of a $49 billion increase in loans to banks (a near-doubling from the previous week). The Fed's balance sheet has grown massively over the past few months, by about $700 billion, far more than the usual gain of a handful of percentage points per year.

    If you believe Milton Friedman's idea that inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon, then you must believe that there will be inflation someday, first in financial assets, and then in the real economy. (That part of the story is a long way off -- the inflation side of the story is probably two or three years away.)

    The period ahead of Y2K was the last time there was a surge in the total amount of currency in circulation such as the surge that is under way. If you recall, there was a lunacy about the world falling apart when the millennium arrived. People again feel the world may fall apart, although for a different reason this time.

    Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of the revised investment classic, The Money Market, first published in 1978 by Marcia Stigum, and The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

    TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Trader's Library under which it receives a portion of the revenue from purchases by customers directed there from
     
    #45     Oct 10, 2008
  6. The general feeling is that there was no real widespread opposition to the Vietnam war until the draft was implemented. After that, college kids of prime drafting age became big protesters against the war. But, I was not around back then, I don't know first-hand.
     
    #46     Oct 10, 2008
  7. Fed Reports Huge Surge in Currency
    -----------------

    I have a color copier. I've been up all night, and now this hits the wire.
     
    #47     Oct 10, 2008
  8. ...and then Mr. Crescenzi says the inflation is dozen of years away...
     
    #48     Oct 10, 2008
  9. you know better than that. But the raw data are what I was pointing to.
     
    #49     Oct 10, 2008
  10. #50     Oct 12, 2008