My thesis on what happens next.........

Discussion in 'Economics' started by flytiger, Oct 8, 2008.

  1. I've spent many sleepless nights in the last three weeks. Something I always said would happen came perillously to happening. I have advantages you don't, so bear with me. Then you can lash me to pieces.

    Starting about a year ago, I think a year, I was hearing things like, 'whoever picks this problem up walks into the White House'. And "it's too late. If they had acted a year or two ago, but now it's too late....". Well, people I respect and people high in Government and Law Enforcement believe now, more than ever, that it is too late. They may well be correct, however, I'm starting to think a bit different after today's events.

    We were so very close to an end of Western finance as you and I know it. It should be obvious to the most unaware that we were teetering on the precipice. As I looked at a worldwide effort to prop up the European banks, that the Frogs, who hate us are working with us, tells me that the Governments, the sick, infected pus balls that oversee us and enrich themselves at the same time, are together, and will pull out every stop to make the appearance that things are fine.

    It appears that the system, although wounded and in intensive care, will survive. However, what will emerge will be entirely different than what we know.

    We get a President that we aren't sure is even on our side, and 60 Democratic Senators. Everything they've ever dreamed about they'll pass. The economy will go into Jimmy Carter to the third power. No growth and stagnation will dominate the next several years, as the blowback to all this cheap money comes back to haunt us. Interesting to note today that the reason for the easing was, energy prices were down, so inflation wasn't a problem . Interesting to note, we use inflation figures minus energy and food, but quote it when it suits us. They cut rates because we were going down another 2000 points, and the public would start hanging politicians.

    I do believe you'll see some things that you won't believe. The amount of arrests on the horizon are staggering; you don't embarrass and threaten politicians like Wall St. (incl Hedgies and regulators) did. They are the sacrificial lambs. The names and numbers will stagger you.

    Tax fraud will be looked upon here like it is in Europe. The Germans with 50% income and 25% Capital gains tax spent years chasing Lichtenstein, simply because it was in their economic interest to do so. A Left Wing US Government will do the same. They have uses for that money.

    I can't see how UBS continues to operate in the US. The tax fraud they perped on us is unprecedented, and heads have to roll.

    I believe the US Government, Democratic to the core, will bail out California, New York, Massachusetts and New Jersey, all decrepit Democratic States. Right there you're talking at least 40 billion and they'll piss that away, too.

  2. There are some really scary times coming; with the short ban being lifted, MS may not make the weekend. You'd want to destroy that stock before the cash infusion. We'll see if the SEC has any teeth. There will be more huge failings, but the government will throw open the doors, and shower the economy with hundreds of billions of dollars. Our tax burden will put hundreds of small businesses under. I am well aware of the fear the Government has about civil unrest. Already there was a murder suicide, and bank robbery based on financial events. If the Governments don't pull out the stops, like they are, they'll be Watts style riots all over the country. The people are not in the mood to suffer Enron style greed when it's their money that's stolen.

    However, for the first time in a couple years, I can be positive, in that I believe hard working, clear thinking traders and entrepreneurs will make it. But certainly not all and it will be frightening at times. More than ever, you'll lick the bones of the dum de dum crowd. And I believe the separation between rich and poor, will become more severe than ever. For, no matter how they tax the 'well to do', the bold will continue to prosper.

    All we can do, friends, is take care of ourselves. Because all these other events are out of our control.

    Ok. Tear me up. But please, contribute something. I'd like to see what you think, not what you think of me.
  3. Can't argue with any of that. Ugly times are ahead.
  4. But I think the systems we need, although worked over like a bad prize fighter will be functional. And that's what we need, and that's what I thought was gone.

    Buffett, Gross, Ross......... this is their entertainment. They are going to have to throw in.
  5. I sometimes agree and sometimes disagree with you, FT.

    Here, I think you're close to the mark.

    I genuinely believe that there will be no quick recovery because the foundation of the U.S. economy - the most important thing by far - good paying jobs, have been bled.

    You can't have a proper house unless the foundation is sound. Try building your house on sand or in a swamp. No matter what you do, what lengths you go to, or how much money you spend, if your foundation is flawed, the house will suffer major, structural damage.

  6. Well Fly,

    The way I look at it, is when I get on the plane I don't second guess the pilot. I go about my business and bring my own parachute.

    Unfortunately , our current economy is one in which the investor must react rather than act because no one knows what is coming next.
  7. Yep. The jobs go bye bye with small business. Didn't address it directly, but I'll explain it to you like it was told to me:

    "wait 'till 20,000,000 Americans find out they don't have a pension, and can't retire......... ever."

    How do you prop up the Auto Industry? Easy. Your constituents are the Labor Unions. But if you don't fix the stupid management, the 25billion is just blown money. The cleanup will cost even more when it comes, and it will come.

    This is the kind of stuff I've lived with for quite a while. I'm glad it's out before I lose the rest of my stomach lining.

    Higher ups are very, very worried about massive rioting. I find it interesting to watch expressions on the faces of government types, as well as body language. You can smell the fear.
  8. jem


    It is also ripping at my stomach lining.

    But - in a few years -

    A blog will become a movement.

    We will disavow the debt.
    We will cease providing social services or domicile to aliens
    We will bring jobs back to america with a smart corporate tax policy
    we will put up tariffs against countries who do not trade fairly
    We will have a flat tax on income not to exceed 15%
    we will not allow pd lobbyinng or contributions to distort our govt

    we will have transparency in gov't with a real time P&L on the net for things that do not include security issues.

    We will demand the holders of our air waves to provide plenty of political commercials for free to qualified candidates. Its the price of the franchise right from the govt

    We will do the same with Natural Resources used for export.

    We will run our country properly.

    My concern is the top of this agenda will be co opted by the one world currency people... then we will be toast.
  9. Precisely! But, at least it appears they will maintain a semblance of a market, and it will benefit those who want to work at it. If you don't take an interest, if you continue to believe you can get a 'good job' and the man will take care of you, you haven't learned the lesson, and will suffer this fate again.
  10. What is wrong with one currency? Imagine all the bureaucratic savings from having one currency, and the improved transparency, trust.
    #10     Oct 8, 2008