My technical and Elliott wave analysis

The second is showing where we've got by now.

 

A lot more to the downside. Target at 1.2800. Quite a brave forecast, but that's what my analysis shows.

 

The following chart is part of a Financial Report, posted in the web site. It shows my mid term perspective about the world's major markets, such as GOLD, US Dollar, and Crude Oil.

 

Ok. Now, let's see what are the possibilities to do our profitable mid term trade.

First, it is neccessary to define what the wave pattern is. In our case I call it to be a double ZigZag. And it looks like wave X is done. What we're looking for is a renewed bull market, which is supposed to reach levels above the top of wave W. This is where our forecast begins.

Second, the trendline from the top of wave b is passed. The market topped (wave i) and now it is near its previous bottom at 1.0211. We define that level as a critical. In other words - our stop level.

Third, we should have a confirmation signal, which will give us confidence that our scenario is under way and we can open a long position. That kind of confirmation is a breakthrough of the top of wave i.

 

Target at 10,273.00
Critical level (Stop level) at 10,416.5

 

EURAUD falls back to 2000 low. Cannot exclude the possibility to go lower, but worth a look.

 

Target reached for those of us, who moved the stop at the top of wave ii.

 

If you ask me, I would not recommend you to trade cross rates in the next 1-2 years. Especially on a weekly basis. Here with EURAUD I expect to see some consolidation. A sign of that scenario could be a breakthrough of the trend line.

Best Regards

 

You can find rallies even in messy corrections. You'll be able to that only if you follow the market in every step, adjust your analysis and wait for so called risk-free opportunities. Of course there is nothing like risk free thing in our life, but we, technicians have a special sentiment to third waves. They are the strongest, the most volatile, and of course - the most profitable opportunities on the market.

Thursday, March 04. A forecast (chart 1).
US Dollar Index - Rally.
It seems that the market is headed for another rally. Target at 80.90. Critical level at 79.83.

Brief, but exact. It was one of those opportunities, that have only 10% risk. We've had wave i (five waves in it), then appropriate three-waves correction for wave ii, and a breakthrough of the top of wave i. In the language of conservative elliotticians that means that wave iii is in action. And we don't miss them.

 

That is what happened. The market reached our target (chart 2)