my technical analysis on futures markets

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by caroubier, Dec 15, 2002.

  1. caroubier


    The american and european markets will start to drop again. A movement which should last at least six weeks. We recommend to leave the market if you are positioned on american or european stocks. And when the markets will be directed in a healthy way towards the rise, it will be always time to get into the train. Today, the risk of the fall is higher than the one of the rise.
    Technically the Dow-Jones has just made a perfect Japanese candlestick configuration called a bearish engulfing line. A configuration which practically never misleads.
    At the fundamental view, it seems that the United States are confronted with a problem difficult to solve quickly: the problem of the productivity!
    However the US productivity is still growing. And as opposed to what certain "experts think", this sign of good health appears actually the genuine brake of the economy of the United States. Quite simply because we are in a deflationary and not in an inflationary era.
    The US produces more with less... but the prices are dropping. And when the prices drop, the companies stop investing; which starts the process of unemployment.
    The American productivity will consequently draw the growth by bottom. The stocks markets will not be able to go up any more, because on the level where they arrived, they need an extremely healthy and transparent environment to continue. What is far from being the case.
    The consumers' confidence will decrease in the next weeks. To pass the end of year festivities with serenity, I advise to leave the stock markets.
    I offer free weekly trading letter
  2. Thank you for this thorough technical analysis. How about telling us something about the fundamentals as well?
  3. Ditch


    So why don't you recommend shorting this market, if you're so sure?
  4. caroubier


  5. caroubier, I hope you resisted and didn't get short the market today. There will be even better opportunities at the end of the week, and even better ones at the end of the year, and even better ones next year. And the year after that.

    Other than that, great prediction!