My take on the SPY

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ksmetana, Aug 3, 2010.

  1. OK
  2. Yery complicated and subjective analysis IMO. All I need is 2 numbers to place my trades. Just numbers, no pictures, lines, drawings, or anything else:

    1. The probability of success in a given direction for given R:R
    2. The significance of the probability

    The p-Indicator as of the close of Friday (7/30) gave a reading of 63% probability with a significance reading of 5 for one of my targets of choice. This is a relatively high reading, normally speaking.

    Then yestrerday as of the close, it reversed sign but only for small target of up to 1% and gave a probability of 56% for short, which is relatively strong number for shorts, with significance reading of 6.

    Medium term for larger targets it maintains a positive reading. Of course, this may change with today's closing data (I have not updated my series yet)

    You see mate, different approach and analysis. Just 2 numbers and there you go.
  3. nice, i'm slowly heading in your direction of analysis