any financial market's nature is movement. any movement's nature is trend. so,once you shape your own trend judging system,you will find it very easy to get steady profit,and never needn't research,what you need do is just to follow your system. this is my speculating philosophy. of course,it's also very difficult to shape your own proper trend judging system.most of speculators can't achieve this goal. market is the fooliest,bacause itself doesn't know to go which direction.at the same it's the cleverest,because it always make the majority lose by its peculiar way. do you think you can guess what a fool is thinking and what it will do? the only way for most people to get steady profit is following the price trend.if you want to guess the bottom or top of a trend,you will fail sooner or later.few can own the capicity of anticipating and influence like Mr. George Soros. i don't know americans' mind,but i think in any country most speculators make the same mistakes. several days ago i read the book,<Kroll on Futures Trading Strategy>,i am amazed to find our thoughts are so similar,really. in chinese philosophy,thers is a wisdom saying:a really great theory is always very very simple. there is common thought in usa. "keep it simple,stupid".i like Stanley Kroll,so great a speculator.
I like your philosophy and I agree for most part but what do you do when the market isn't trending. Do you change your strategy or wait it out?
never change strategy.when trends are small,losses are necessary,they are part of success.even if you continue losing several times,you will win in the long run if you can insist on your system,because a large trend will appear sooner or later.maybe most of trades make losses,but it doesn't matter.only using MA,we can also get profit.everyone knows these reasons,but seldom can follow this.that's from bad mood. i think market is always trending,so i always own a position.when the trend starts going up,i also start buying,owning a long position.when the trend starts going down,i clean my long position and start building a short position,and never mind the last trade made profit or loss.the purpose is to make trade simpler,because i don't want to waste time to judge if the market in trend or not. but the premise to do so is:your trend judging system must be able to get rid of unnecessary micro movements as possible.it's not easy.getting rid of little trend and avoiding excessive lagging are a couple of paradox which can never been settled.the only way is to find the best combination point where we can get maxmized profit.my system make me satisfactory on the whole .but i also want to continue improving it
in my thread gseveral days ago i read the bookBBh sorry some words are omissed.the book is Âkroll on trading strategyÂt.it's really a good book
So if I have you right, when the market trends your riding the trend. When the market stops trending you take your systems signals anyway because sooner or later the market starts trending and you're already in a position to take advantage of it. And as far as drawdowns are concerned, "so what!", you just ride it out? Sounds sensible to me.
yes.a good trade system includes three vital factors:a good mood,fund management and technology.they are always necessary for making steady profit.especially,shaping a good mood is very hard.if you continuously lost,dare you continue to insist on your system?if you can't,then your psycholy need training.believe yourself and your system.this is the premise of trading,otherwise you will still lose at the end even if you have the best technology in the world