My Simple Profitable Strat: "ET Contrarian"

Discussion in 'Journals' started by shortie, Feb 12, 2010.

  1. monday trades:
    BOT 200 IWM false Stock 63.34 USD ISLAND 06:32:32 0.24

    SLD 1 IWM true Strangle: + (1) DIW 100320C00065000 + (1) DIW 100320P00061000 1.28 USD SMART 06:40:23 1.63

    Results from 1st week: -$24 (strangle) -$3.5 (comm) = -$27.5 or -0.45% (based on total exposure of 200 shrs)

    Not a bad result considering the fact that the Strat was totally wrong about the market direction (which was +2.85%! Tue thru Mon).
    :)

    for this week i am short one strangle, maybe wrong about the direction as well given the violent move today. Tue portfolio:
    [​IMG]
     
    #21     Feb 23, 2010
  2. slowly clawing my way out of the last week drawdown.

    [​IMG]
     
    #22     Feb 25, 2010
  3. dunno why. that is the sign of an inexperienced trader. Serious traders seriously test things first, they don't flush their trading capital chasing after an unproven idea...
     
    #23     Feb 25, 2010
  4. you are right.

    but i want to forward-test my hypothesis and maybe improve on it as i go along due to the excellent feedback of the experienced traders like yourself.
     
    #24     Feb 25, 2010
  5. you don't have to forward test with money. There are ways to simulate.
     
    #25     Feb 25, 2010
  6. i know, but i want to have fun while i hang our here with the ET crowd.
     
    #26     Feb 25, 2010
  7. looks like the second week will put my portfolio in the green:

    [​IMG]
     
    #27     Feb 26, 2010
  8. Bull, Bear or Neut Next Week?
    Bull 16 30.77%
    Flat 13 25.00%
    Bear 21 40.38%
    Yawn... 2 3.85%
    Total: 52 votes 100%

    The poll is somewhat bearish so I will get long on Mon. Maybe I should only buy 50 shrs since there is not much conviction among ETers. I clearly need a test on significance of these polls.
     
    #28     Mar 1, 2010
  9. BOT 1 IWM true Strangle: + (1) DIW 100320C00065000 + (1) DIW 100320P00061000 0.85 USD SMART 06:41:44

    BOT 50 IWM false Stock 63.69 USD SMART 06:42:14 0.71

    up $20 midday on my long IWM.

    i really want to take the profit, but until i have worked out a reasonable exit strat, i will stick to my timed exit after 1 week.
     
    #29     Mar 1, 2010
  10. midday update Tue:
    [​IMG]
     
    #30     Mar 2, 2010