there were approximately equal number of bulls and bears and each were more prevalent than the neuts. so, my interpretation is that the majority expects a large move (up or down) and i have to bet with the neut minority. i could have remained flat but selling strangles seems like a good idea given the expiration week and it is consistent with betting on a flat week.
i am giving people the opportunity to express their various opinions. i am not basing my trades based on the "contrarians suck" opinion.
so far the bulls have been right, but the week is not over. hanging in there with my short strangles:
the calls were flirting with being in the money. thanks to Fed's raising rate AH that's about to change for the better :
the market ignored the Fed . I did not really expect this sort of a reaction. the strangles actually made a bit of money, i will be assigned -200 shrs IWM come monday morning. i will decide what to do with them based on the weekend poll:
plans for position sizing so far: 1. max exposure 200 shrs IWM 2. typical exposure 100 shrs IWM 3. i will use max exposure when the sentiment reaches some sort of extreme (will decide what that level is when i see it) or when i sell strangle as last week ().
Isn;'t the whole point of strategy to reset every week? Close out the assigned part and enter a new trade. Otherwise, you're just discretionary trading.
yes, i will reset each week. for example, if the poll is bearish (meaning i have to switch to Long) i will buy 300 shrs around open on Monday (right now i am -200 shrs going into Monday) to have 100 shr exposure for the coming week. if we were to get a super bullish poll today, i would leave -200shrs intact. if it were a bullish poll, i would reduce the exposure to -100shr.
similar poll from last week. again i will take the minority side which is betting flat. i will close -200 shrs and sell one strangle. not many people voted probably because of the olympics giving this poll a larger margin of error (hence only one strangle this time). Next Week Will Be.... Bullish 10 40.00% Flat 4 16.00% Bearish 10 40.00% Every time I vote in one of this polls I lose money when trading 1 4.00% Total: 25 votes 100%