My Simple Profitable Strat: "ET Contrarian"

Discussion in 'Journals' started by shortie, Feb 12, 2010.

  1. there were approximately equal number of bulls and bears and each were more prevalent than the neuts. so, my interpretation is that the majority expects a large move (up or down) and i have to bet with the neut minority. i could have remained flat but selling strangles seems like a good idea given the expiration week and it is consistent with betting on a flat week.
     
    #11     Feb 16, 2010
  2. i am giving people the opportunity to express their various opinions. i am not basing my trades based on the "contrarians suck" opinion.
     
    #12     Feb 16, 2010
  3. if futures stay up maybe we'll have a nice fakeout. I say down today.
     
    #13     Feb 17, 2010
  4. so far the bulls have been right, but the week is not over. hanging in there with my short strangles:

    [​IMG]
     
    #14     Feb 17, 2010
  5. the calls were flirting with being in the money. thanks to Fed's raising rate AH that's about to change for the better :D :

    [​IMG]
     
    #15     Feb 18, 2010
  6. the market ignored the Fed :( . I did not really expect this sort of a reaction. the strangles actually made a bit of money, i will be assigned -200 shrs IWM come monday morning. i will decide what to do with them based on the weekend poll:

    [​IMG]
     
    #16     Feb 19, 2010
  7. plans for position sizing so far:
    1. max exposure 200 shrs IWM
    2. typical exposure 100 shrs IWM
    3. i will use max exposure when the sentiment reaches some sort of extreme (will decide what that level is when i see it) or when i sell strangle as last week ().
     
    #17     Feb 21, 2010
  8. Isn;'t the whole point of strategy to reset every week? Close out the assigned part and enter a new trade. Otherwise, you're just discretionary trading.
     
    #18     Feb 21, 2010
  9. yes, i will reset each week. for example, if the poll is bearish (meaning i have to switch to Long) i will buy 300 shrs around open on Monday (right now i am -200 shrs going into Monday) to have 100 shr exposure for the coming week.

    if we were to get a super bullish poll today, i would leave -200shrs intact. if it were a bullish poll, i would reduce the exposure to -100shr.
     
    #19     Feb 21, 2010
  10. similar poll from last week. again i will take the minority side which is betting flat. i will close -200 shrs and sell one strangle. not many people voted probably because of the olympics giving this poll a larger margin of error (hence only one strangle this time).


    Next Week Will Be....
    Bullish 10 40.00%
    Flat 4 16.00%
    Bearish 10 40.00%
    Every time I vote in one of this polls I lose money when trading 1 4.00%
    Total: 25 votes 100%
     
    #20     Feb 21, 2010