My plays for Friday and Monday - AS I promissed Tony

Discussion in 'Trading' started by neo_hr, Oct 19, 2001.

  1. neo_hr


    Hello everyone!

    I did my portion of DD for tonight after enlighting Mr. Oz' rewiew of my post so here it is, The Holy Grail

    AOL - just looks like a good short should it pullback, not sure about the stop/entry

    CCE - indeed a skyscraper, would lok to enter short on a low of the first down day

    BTW, Tony, why dont we suppose it will continue UPTREND and enter LONG on this down day? But instead we're fighting the ST trend...I never could understand this one.

    CMX - Bottom fischer, will be looking to buy it above first days high
    Same Q here, why not short it on this UP pullback?

    FE - long 36.19 stop 35.27 risk 0.92 target : arround 2$
    short 35.25 stop 36.07 risk 0.82 target : 1.60$

    GSB - Bottom fischer so we have to wait for an up day

    PCG - long 19.55 stop 18.71 risk 0.84 target . 1.60$

    CRYP - short 14.19 stop 17.37 risk 3.18 (Phuh, I can afford to short only 25 of theese to stay with 2% rule)

    Interesting also


    but I couldn't really put my finger on it he he

    Good luck!
  2. TonyOz


    Hi Neo

    If you have five complete trading plans posted for Monday, I will take a look and offer my analysis sometime over the weekend.

    What I need from you is:

    A: Why do you like the setup?
    B: Where is your exact Entry Price?
    C: What is your initial stop and why?
    D: What is your price target and why?
    E: What trailing stop methodology are you going to use should your position be in the money?

    The more information you can give me, the more I have to work with.

    Trade Smart!
  3. TonyOz


    " CRYP - short 14.19 stop 17.37 risk 3.18 (Phuh, I can afford to short only 25 of theese to stay with 2% rule) "

    Hmmm. (25 X 3.18) / 0.02 = 3975

    Is that right? Is this the total capital you are trading with?
  4. neo_hr


    Yup, the capital Im trading with is like 4k as of today (actualyy 4090$) after a disasterous play with DRMD, when I had to call IB from Croatia and pay 30bucks to sell. My PC froze and I panicked...

    Do you still think I stand a chance in nowdays markets?

  5. neo wow man....I don't think even the great Oz can pull this one off...:)
  6. TonyOz



    Here is a true story of a guy I know very well. This guy started trading when he was 16 with $8,000. Back then commissions were much higher, nothing like the commissions charged by your broker. The best deal he got was $30 a trade. And, the market was not half as volatile as it is today. There was nothing this guy wanted more than to become a trader. He'd make good trades and lots of bad ones, but he would learn his lessons and make less mistakes, as time went on. At the age of 23, this guy became a millionaire, and he fulfilled his childhood dream. And in case you wonder how I know this story. I know it, because this guy is me.

    Moral, don't let anyone tell you that it can't be done! But don't fool yourself thinking that the road to get there is flat, because it's not. It's a tough (never-ending) road that very few survive.

    You will be playing against HUGE odds, but with your commission structure and if you don't need to live off your capital, it is doable. This market should actually be good for it. Volatility is there, and you should be able to find decent setups to trade. But no matter what I say or anyone else says, your chances to succeed start with YOU. You have to have faith and believe in every bone in your body that you are going to make it. And it will be my pleasure to try and analyze your trading plans and give you some pointers. So please don't be discourage and post them here. I'm sure that I will be able to give you and the readers a few pointers that would be well worth my time. I'm here this weekend, so take advantage of it, because next week, I go back to trading and poof I'll be gone from the boards :)
  7. janko


    WOW Tony please dont take away your knowledge from these boards during the week if you dont have to. I and I think i speak for all have enjoyed all your knowledgable posts so please dont disapear. Or at least drop by at least mid week just to check up on few of us - if its not too much bother. Thank you sir. Cant wait to get the third book!!!
  8. Satan



    a lot of us really enjoy your posts. we understand you're busy doing your own stuff, but just know that your posts are appreciated here. many of us are trying to become successful traders like yourself, so you can see why we're eager to study you. please post here whenever you get a chance!

  9. Satan


    i have to say tony's story hits close to home for me. my interest in the stock market started around 1998. i literally knew nothing at first, but i read a lot of books and did a lot of research on the internet. i've been using computers since i was about 15 so i know my way around. i even had aol when it was for dos lol.

    anyway, when i first started my biggest influences were the motley fool guys lol. i eventually decided that their long term investment style was not for me. daytrading was all over tv and it sparked my interest. i was young and i knew i had the time to sit at the computer all day to learn to trade. for a few months i tried so many different ideas it was incredible! looking back at all my ideas now seem funny to me. but it was necessary for me to learn. i never liked the idea of following fundamentals, so that led me to study chart patterns. i've put so much time into looking at charts i don't even like to think about it!

    i eventually opened up my trading account with about $500 of my own money and i wrote a check using my credit card for a few thousand. i knew this was risky, but i knew i wasn't a total moron and i figured since i was young, now was the time to take chances like that. i don't remember how much i started with, but my account started around $3,000-$5,000. for a while i went nowhere, but i protected my money like gold. i knew i couldn't let myself lose it, so i never let losses get away from me. for months i tried so many things. i looked at charts for hours every single day. eventually things paid off and my timing was also right. i was there for nasdaq's big rally. around this time it was easy to buy dips because everything was going up. at one point my account was over $100,000. when i had to pay taxes i was so disgusted and i wanted to cry!

    looking back, when the bear came i was a bull in a bear market. i lost some money but not too much. it made me a stronger trader. i feel that if i survived a great bull market and then a great bear market, i can make it as a trader. i always think for myself and i never listen to anyone on tv or follow anyone else's tips. this is the only message board i follow. all the yahoo and raging bull boards are useless and are full of people that lose money.

    one of my biggest strengths is that i am not emotional at all about my trading. i have my rules and i stick to them. like tony said, you have to believe that you can do it. there is nobody that can tell me i can't do this. i know i will win. i forgot to mention i'm 23 now and i primarily swing trade.
  10. neo_hr


    Hello yall!

    my plays for monday and reasoning behind them :

    AOL entry:31.48 stop:29.55 target:34.71res.

    -like it because it looks like a bottom fischer, bounced in lower BB

    CCE short:17.47 stop:18.15 target:16.72sup.

    -this one looks like a skyscraper, retraced into upper BB

    CMX entry:14.32 stop:13.39 target:15.65middle band

    -short term bottom,

    FE ??
    -looked like a skyscraper, to me but it seems to continue uptrend

    ICN entry:26.15 stop:25.53 target:27.32

    -channel play, I like channels and the overall market seems like its gonna trade instead of trend for awhile


    Where do I place initial stops and why? I place them (Usually) at the last days H/L or the first significant top/bottom if its like 3-4 bars away.

    My price targets on all these above plays are first ST major S/R levels which Im not sure if I define well but I use 5-10 bars on daily charts to determine that, middle BBs, major MAs (4, 18, 40). Im still searching for the right method to determine the target; or sometimes Ill just multiply risk by 2 or 3 and see if it "fits" on the chart somewhere (i.e. if nothings blocking its way).

    Trailing methodology? This one gives me most problems as I HAVE NEVER BEEN IN THE MONEY yet so im not sure about this one. I understand what you are trying to point out but my options are somewhat limited here-I cant pyramid into position (IB no odd lots NYSE, since I look for 20-40$ stocks and 4k capital I think you see my point), I cant sell half and trail rest etc etc etc.

    Tony, while you're here - sharing your invaluable knowledge :cool: - I would like to ask you something very important

    Why would you assume it is a bottom on the day it reverses (pulls back) and not a downtrend continuation so go short below that up day with a stop above high? (same goes for skyscraper, if it's not much revelation of your secrets he he).

    Thank you so much, I think I speak for all the traders in here for your time and effort!

    Good luck everybody,

    P.S. It IS an OK movie ...:)
    #10     Oct 20, 2001