Very interesting... looks like the programs are hammering the ES based on the crude falling. How strange is that! The programs should be wrong but they move the market.
Guys please don't discuss between each other here. This is my trading log. If you want to chat with with each other then use another thread. If a moderate could delete the fractal chart, it would please me (no offense to the guy who posted it). I just don't want to see a chart. Available Capital: $3,884.30 I made a lot of money this week but felt like I screwed up everything up. On my hypothetical futures trades, I had a banner week. I made money at NADEX but there are some differences between futures and these products. That ended up costing me a lot of performance this week. If things had worked out slightly differently I would have made literally a thousand or better. Instead, I made consistent money but you know I'm used to looking at my hypothetical futures trades where I'm trading multiple contracts. I'm used to see $500 winners. It is almost like my real account, it feels the same except my wins and losses are tiny. I'm pretty exhausted from trading this week. I would have made an additional several hundreds.. possibly $500 from crude on my real account.. I chose to use the binaries because I never placed a futures or looked at futures. Man it worked out.. came back though maybe I"ll take a spread for $100 with potential to make $500/$600. I said nah I don't really know this market. I felt I had more risk on. Ended up not even making anything from that great call. that's not serving.. But I'm working toward that. Nobody to blame but myself. And I can't be that hard myself because I traded my futures account excellently and I'm knew to binaries and spreads. I was looking at a big pretty hole there and I've pulled out. That was good psychology to boost my account. So, I just gotta keep the focus and keep trading well and learn these products. I didn't enter that futures trade thinking I'm going to me a lot of money. I'm just trying to broaden my base but then I seen it working and should have perhaps jumped on that harder.. I tried to with the binaries but 2 expired worthless (I was short) but 1 expired in the money.. End result was no real profit that sequence. That's the good thing. I mean if I were trading the real futures, I couldn't jumped into crude. It would be crazy but at NADEX I can do that. And, I tried to serve. Good calls. I took a big risk for a big gain. Pushed hard to the metal, timing was ever so slightly off and you know I could have used a wider spread with a smaller point value and did better in hindsight instead of trying to score a huge home run. But, traded well and I got out of some bad positions well. I did serve. And, I'm one of the best. I need to increase my focus. I wanted to instill a sense of recklessness into my work. I think that is important. It is a controlled recklessness. I imagine I'm trading at a large bank with a large capital base. I'm trying to win. But, I'm really not and so that has be to measured with balance. A lot of people lose money and then they trade themselves into a ditch they can't get out. That's not the type of recklessness that I want to develop. The recklessness I want to develop is a skilled recklessness. A lot of what I do is about tension.. it is about the dynamics between forces. It is about listening to those dynamics.
I think we finally agree on something Lucias. I think a (risk) controlled recklessness is a good thing. No other way to reach the highest echelon of traders.
Available Capital: $4,131.80 I feel pretty good about that. Great volatility this week. I was long crude/short es from the open today. I only needed to glance at the tape for about 2 seconds to know how this would unfold. I just traded the binaries today. I didn't want to risk a lot if I were wrong but I added to my binaries as the market moved in my favor. I feel pretty good about this week. I was really tired and just decided to grab my futures profits though without really trying. I could have had a much better day in the futures if I had held a bit longer. I like this volatility but am concerned about the real life consequences.
I'm feeling a bit sick. I can't place any trades on NADEX because Sunday night. That is one disadvantage. Crude is at 106. That is a huge gap from Friday's close. The tape is making me think about shorting it. But, this is a good case where I might try this trade with NADEX binaries or spreads but would not with futures because it would be too risky. I'm not stating it is a good trade idea or not. Current I'm long the ES for a quick rally back to 1321. I think the probability is higher that the S&P 500 will decline though on intermediate term. This is starting to look serious with crude. It looks like the Fed has lost control of the situation. If I were the President, I would announce a HUGE reserve opening. I mean 3x as much as anyone would expect. This would serve to stop the rise momentarily. Without that, the crude speculators will not be stopped.
Available Capital: 3791 I've been quite sick the last couple days. I would have made about $120 last night but was just too sick to watch my position any longer and exited for a small loss. What to say? Today, I got caught in my own trap. I feel I run these futures markets night and day. At least, I better feel that way to trade. Today, I was wrong and short biased. I'm still short biased. I'm betting about $117 on binaries with $296 payout total if the market closes below 1295 for this week and most of a payout if we close below 1315. I don't know that we'll get a close below 1295 that. But, I do think we'll move down. It is a difficult game because my computer models are saying we are heading up. And, I do use my models because they do a great job. I'm disagreeing. What else, I'm going to be switching from using NADEX directly to using IG markets because they have better commissions. But, I'm not going to make the mistake of being without a trading account. I did that game when I first started and I don't plan to make that mistake again. I have to keep access to the markets. A lot of people you know boo-hoo simulated trading and honestly I think if you approach it seriously and with a graduated intensity that it will help you. I've had a lot of risk on this account and managed it as well my simulated account. Of course, what really counts more then anything is having a belief and beliefs aren't necessarily rational. I think is the really difference or why would you trade. I think there is a big difference between a belief in oneself and a desire to be a good trader. I have a belief based on years of experience that I can do what I set out to do in the markets. This si different from a desire because you see a desire, you rational mind set you straight if you just have a desire versus a belief. The question is how do you from desire to belief because everyone starts with desire. And, the difference is desire is cosmetic. It is not deep rooted and if you just sim trade enough to get to the desire stage then you're not going to be able to transition. You have to get to the belief stage. I'm happy that I had a bit of struggle first starting because I rarely lose and frankly because I always win then I wonder how will I handle losing? And, so I know I've lost with real money and I come back and now I feel like I'm even better position to make the best plays.
Available Capital: 3953 Pretty good today. I was short on the intraday frame and caught that move perfectly. The NADEX spreads expire daily, and I placed a limit order to reshort at 1317 before to the store. I don't know what I was thinking because I never use limit orders to enter a trade and it never filled. I got home to see that it never filled. But, I was able to get back in and capitalize on that move from the 1312 area. Total I made about to $230 today in closed trade profits. Basically if we close this week at or below 1315 that then I'll profit an additional $162 and my account will be credited an additional $200. If we can close at or below 1295 then I'll pocket an additional $200. I see the highest probability that I'll essentially be break even from my last equity mark which honestly is pretty darn tough to do, that is to break even with frequent trading because the spreads and commissions really add up fast. One way of measuring the cost of doing business is to use the minimum tick to commission. Good news, I'm moving to IGMarkets and using NADEX through them versus through NADEX directly which will save me a lot in commissions because of the better price structure. And, I think I get 30 days of free commission. I still have the larger spreads to overcome which are not at all trivial either. I'm typically paying 4 to 6/10ths of a point or 2 ticks on both sides (unless I hold until expiry). One thing a good trader learns is to make a losing trade very small and that's harder to do when the spread is larger. On the other hand, I've taken some of my futures system and put them on binaries and the performance even after expenses, granted hypothetical, were very impressive. Far more impressive then the equivalent futures system because it removes all the steep drawdowns. It works for me and I'm willing to pay a slight premium to get into the game without having to risk quite as much just starting. A lot of people say sim trading is not the same as real money trading. Well guess what? I always place all my trades in sim and real money. And, I use my sim feelings to guide my real money trading. I feel this is a great benefit because I'm able to experience and reflect on my real money behavior and my simulated behavior at the same time and in the same trade. If I didn't have the extensive sim experience then I wouldn't be able to go to that and evaluate it. I feel it is basically what you make it. If you make it mean nothing or you trade in such a way that it means nothing then it means nothing. If you treat it seriously then it can mean something and I treat it seriously. Most things are not good or bad but how we use those constructs. Fx, a $100 win feels okay but a $100 loss feels really bad. The losses always seem bigger to me then my wins. If I use that to keep losses small and wins larger then that's constructive. Another person may feel the same way and that may lead to a large loss or getting scared of good trades. It can be constructive or destructive. That's about it. I've been rather sick. One aspect of my game plan that I've seen that needs improving is that being a single market trader that I do tend to concentrate risk, and that's why I'm going to be developing my trading ability on some other markets to try to diversify my risk a bit. The risk has became apparent in my mind this week because I've been short on the intraday frame and carrying also a short weekly opinion. It has been the right play. But, I can see that I'd rather have 1 out 3 ideas go bad then 3 out of 3. I may one day trade pairs in stocks. But, I feel I'm stronger as a single market trader. I started as a single market centric and to this day I feel that made a big difference. I'm best at calling direction. I'm best at calling the entire market. What I want to do is expand out to trading to possibly crude, possibly the ftse, and maybe even gold. And, that way I can have a few ideas and a bit of diversification. But, if I do that then I'm going to do it so that I'm still on top of every market and do it right. And even at that, I'm not really convinced that I'll get that diversification because the entire market moves both predictably and in lock-step. Really that's why I call the entire market is because 9x out of 10x everything moves together. To start with I'll probably just add crude. Good week and pretty good trading being sick. I gave up 1 trade this because I was just too sick and miserable to hold onto it: that was $100. I also gave $100 on the silly limit order business. I feel pretty good being where I'm at and how I traded overall though.
Available Capital: 4127.80 I closed out my short trades. Unfortunately not at the exact bottom (so far) but close. I closed out my weekly binary of > 1315 as well for about 80% of value. If my timing had been better I could have got almost 90% of value. I'm not sure that was the very best play but with limited potential for profit.. my plan is to either find another trade or re-enter at a better price. The real money to be made today was on the opening. I'm not sure that I will open any more trades this week. I am looking for potentially re-shorting. but being sick and already have a pretty good week.. this may be a good time to take a break. I'm not really sure why I didn't get bigger profits even in my sim account. I was shorting pretty hard. Felt like I should have made more. So, I've something to review and think about too. Well I decided to short 2 daily binaries with a close below 1298.. this way I limit my risk with a strong reversal
I may be reversing my bearish stance. Somewhat risky here either way. My levels project for tomorrow projects a 1285 low. However, one of my favorite systems is signaling a long. I'm currently long a spread and down slightly. I may close this and try the binaries to reduce my tail risk. was hoping to get a better price for the binaries though.. hmm