Is your goal to write essays on how great you are? I guess you are a success in that regard. When it comes to trading you are not a success by any measure, because you do not trade. I really don't know why you would expect anything but negative reactions here. This is a trading forum. You are claiming to be the best trader in the world but you don't trade! That would be like you coming into an NFL locker room and declaring yourself the best player in the world because you crush your highschool friends at flag football. Or the guy that come into MMA gyms with braces and no mouthpiece and claim that they have 10 pro fights and would like to spar. Or the kids my wife used to give snowboarding lessons to that would cry when they realized they weren't as good as they were on their video game.
@bagger I calculate based on the real provided fill data that the traders following my signals have netted over $5,400 this month. Of course, they took the risk and I've taken some big swings this month -- could just as likely down more then 5k. But, it shows that people with money are speaking louder with their actions then your words. ----------- Anyway, I'm shut down again. I feel I'm not trading at my 100% in this market and so it is time for a rest break. This will be one of my better months if I can manage to hold these gains. But, I was up and down more... I just need to keep my losses small until I hit my stride again and watch my size in this market.
Do your thing Lucias, just remember that trading is about execution. Execution under pressure, that's what separates the ET'er from the pro...whether its the pressure of losing your job or your capital! Trading with real money, whatever size is like training. Like a boxer hitting mits or sparring, ya need the base to survive in the ring ya dig! lol
Lost a small bit today.. I won't say it was the minimum because there was about an 88% chance that I wouldn't have traded. If the market had ticked 1 tick higher then I would have been out with a profit and done. Win a lot and lose a lot. The banks got me today. I'm betting most traders who went long/short lost. I track a few systems that trade the ES well and they had bigger losses. I haven't checked the Striker systems yet though. It will be interesting to see if they made. In futures, I don't translate every prediction into a trade due to risk/reward. For example, today I didn't trade back to the value area because I felt it would be a high risk trade even though it would have been good. Typically, I'd use a wide stop on a day like today because I wasn't looking for a trend. I didn't execute well enough on that plan and took some bad fills. But yes... this is where binary options or an even risk/reward bet is better to place then futures. In general, I am more interested in placing even risk/reward bets because I can win all the time -- not EVERY time. I can win all the time so I don't need to hit a big winner in the futures market. I've thought about this idea of setting a goal of having a 10k day for myself but then I think.. well really it is not required and if I don't lose then I win by default. So, why take the risk or stress? If I can hit 100% returns then I can get subscribers and demonstrate I can make a living. I would really win all the time if I didn't get stopped out. I like to experiment. I'm thinking of trying a trading style where I bet big just to get a point. I mean that if you look at a system that's in the market for a few days then its lucky to average 1 point profit. I mean that's the idea.. a trend following system probably averages less then 1 point per day. I mean the idea is that any edge is really weak so you just take anything you get. And, that's my idea that I'm currently trading with.. I mean just take what I'm 100% sure that I can hit. Doesn't mean I'm always right but it means I'm not shooting for something I'm 70% confident on. Like today, I was trying to sell the beneath the 22s. I wasn't thinking that was the top though. I thought 22.50's would be good. I just wanted to hit that sure thing. I missed it by 1 tick. This rarely happens but will happen. Worse, it showed that I got filled on 1/2 so I added size when my subscribers didn't get filled. Performance isn't perfect to plans ever. I've lost performance due to mistakes and gained performance. Today was a good day for me to use my market maker trading style. Market makers probably made a killing today. Anyway, I really want to hit my stride.. when I hit my stride then I can win 15 or 20 trades in a row. The funny thing is that I'm almost relieved to take a loss after winning so much because I get to the point where I don't want to take any losses. I get to point where I wonder: can I take a loss? Then I take a small loss and it was no big deal... My risk management plan is multifaceted and built on principles but not hard rules. Principles are designed to guide me to optimal trading. 1. Quit trading when I'm trading poorly. I know when I'm trading poorly if I were up a lot and just starting to lose, if I am confused or looking to hard for opportunity, if I start to lose and don't feel confident.. Those are all ways for me to know if I'm trading poorly. 2. Risk a maximum % amount on any given trade. The amount to risk per trade I feel is somewhere between 2.5% and 8%. Many traders only think about the size of loss but not the probability. I'm okay to risk a lot if the probability is slim. The C2 constraint feature is really nice in this regard because I can add more contracts but my risk % as account size is not changed. Of course, my stop is tightened which increases the probability loss. 3. Use a maximum amount of leverage. For my larger account I feel around 4x leverage is about right... 4. Take every opportunity/do what it takes to win. Imagine a trader is looking over me. This increases net profit at cost of risk/adjusted returns. Good when I get too risk conservative. Cycle this goal. 5. Bet more when I'm more confident. 6. Bet my predictions. If I'm wrong then prove it to me.. Be tough when required and give a losing trade as easily as water flows down a hill when I'm wrong.
A few thoughts.. My first thought is that I'm just thankful for my abilities. Maybe, I have I do think highly, rightfully, of my abilities. But, yes, I think at the end of the day I'm just thankful. Blessed. This post is on reality. When I speak highly of myself, you will notice it is generally clear, rather precise, rather narrow and that's truthful. You have to be truthful as a trader. I'm not going to name names but there are obviously traders who aren't truthful. They do what they want to do and I let them be them as I wish for me to be me. Let me be me. That's why I don't bother people. But, if you come to me for advice.. you read this journal then I'm to implore you to be truthful. You can't go around saying your a winner if you don't win. Right. If you win you can go around and say you're a big winner. At same time, I'm not going to go around correcting people. If you have to correct every mistake someone mistakes then you'd be very busy.. I'm not going to go to someone and say that they were untruthful to themselves. I feel that would be wrong, unproductive.. I'd become a troll. It goes against my belief in letting people be themselves too. I think poorly, really poorly, of most vendors. I assume most would be losing. I assume that the guys who write books probably couldn't trade and make a dime. I mean that's just me. Without a record.. then I don't believe anything. I think my basis is sound because I've found many authenticated stories of vendors losing big. One big name vendor lost 12 years in a row!! And he was a big promoter. Yet, there are a few vendors/promoters that are pretty good traders based on their records. I was looking at Covestor and Timonthy Sykes. That's a guy who run his hedge fund into the ground and has tons of promotional stuff, and I figure he probably couldn't trade. But, I go to covestor and yes he's good. Yes he's a good trader. Just seeing that record, changes my whole impression toward him. Yes, he's a promoter but his record looks good. It isn't outrageously good but it demonstrates something. As I've said all along, I know there are some great traders out there. While what I seen of Timmy's record is solid, it doesn't inspire me. But I know there are some great traders out there. And that's inspirational.. even if I don't know them.
Understand What You're Trying To Do To win, you have to understand what you're trying to do. My book mentor, Gary Smith, wrote that he could often call every swing in the market but didn't instant reverse. I found I could do the same -- call every swing -- but then I had some bad experiences "instant reversing" and decided his philosophy made sense. But, what exactly what was his philosophy and why was it sound? What did it derive from? What were the underlying elements to his success? It can be summarize: one can optimize toward maximum profitability or maximum survivability. I think this may be why the market offers such great opportunities because most traders aren't optimizing toward maximum profits. They just want to survive. I've seen many opportunities to triple what I can make. And, as I've pushed my goals further out then I've started to question my philosophy not to instant reverse. I've started to think about also why I don't take every opportunity. What is taking every opportunity? Taking every opportunity is a PROFIT MAXIMIZING objective whereas being more selective is a RISK/ADJUSTED return maximizing objective. I tend to optimize toward RISK/ADJUSTED return per TRADE. It doesn't mean that a PROFIT MAXIMIZING strategy is the wrong way to go. The trader who profit maximizes will have much bigger swings. He will have higher highs and lower lows but he'll make more in the long run. Obviously, there is a sweet spot between profit maximizing, risk/adjusted return maximizing, and survivability maximizing that will best fit our profiles. But, the uncertainty is so high that as we shift into the upper realm of profit maximizing then survivability may not be possible. Yes, Jack may be right, at least, in regards to the great opportunity the market is offering at any time. But, as with all opportunity comes risk and the trader who tries to capture 3x the daily range will, also, be risking LOSING 3x the daily range. At any rate, you have to understand what you're trying to do. Are you just wanting to survive ? Do you want to make the most possible? Or are you willing to take a higher level of risk but want to be able to sleep? As for me, I've started to look more closely at some of my own beliefs. I can choose what aspects that work for me based on my current goals or a given system's goals. It is better to understand then to argue.
Lucias, I wish you nothing but the best of luck in your quest for trading success. And I would never want to say anything to deter you from your dreams. However, I can't recall ever saying I could call swings in the market because I can't. If anything I said I had no special abilities or talents as a trader other than whatever experience had taught me in over 33 years of trading (now it's 44 years of trading) We differ quite a bit in that I feel every trade I make will be a losing one and hence always ready to bail if the trade moves against me. Max Gunther in one of my favorite books of all time, The Luck Factor, called this the pessimism paradox. In his studies of lucky and successful people, much to his surprise, he found one of their key traits was that they always expected the worst. They expected that anything that could go wrong would and that optimism and over confidence is a killer. I have always felt trading was 95% mental/money management/discipline and 5% something else. The something else being methodology/oscillators/indicators etc. and that unfortunately traders spent all their time and efforts on the 5% something else. Looking back on my trading career I find one reason for my success is to run as fast as possible from volatility. That runs counter to conventional wisdom being that most traders embrace volatility. Whether I was trading stock index futures, equity mutual funds, individual stocks or my favorite, junk bond funds, I always keyed in on patterns that exhibited trend persistency with as little volatility as possible along the way.
Thanks Gary for the clarification. I was referring to what you wrote about your dislike of shorting. You wrote something to effect when you often exited your longs at the market top but didn't go short. In essence, you were optimizing toward survivability and not maximum profit. I've suspect that if I reverse all my trades that I could double my profits because I'm usually right. I don't because balance is important to me. Getting a win.. savoring it. Re-balance. I've found that I'm very good in recognizing when I'm wrong. But I'm always evaluating my beliefs.. testing them.. revising them. updating them. Our styles are a lot different. Like you, I'm not big on shorting. Not because I can't call the shorts but I can't call how far they run. If I call a short then I have to take my profits fast or risk getting caught in a reversal. So, either I have to pay a lot in small losses or not get full value. But I'm always monitoring how I'm winning... what's working. Shorts are doing good for me lately. I do trade volatility because it is when I can call the swings the best. During the low volatility markets then I stay out -- that is -- at least with my bread&butter style. One of the few short trades I'll take is what I call "stop hit targets". I spent a lot of work developing a stop level that wouldn't be hit. I optimized it using advanced methods and made it as far away as possible. I mean my goal was to make the most accurate stop level possible. The zero probability to get hit. The main way I've used this in my actual trading is to target it when I want to get really short! I know it may not make any sense but it makes sense for me when it does. Yes, I read your book 5x and I discovered the 5% something else. I understand the 5%. I know the 5%... I mean I know what was hidden.. What you were trying to get your hands round. I have about 3-4 narratives to explain it. I don't know which narrative is the ultimate truth but I know "stuff". Yes.. your tight rising channels. My best year predicting was in 2008. I had over 55 predictions that were correct. At my best, I predicted everything. Every move. I could predict between A and B, reversals. I called a huge reversal 50 point reversal to the point!! It was amazing (at the time). Now it is no big deal.. I'm always focus on the future. Winning in the future. Winning all the time. I seen a story about a trader who won every day. I said, yes that's what required. I mean that's what's requiring.. anything less you can't do this. Not to say I win every the time.. I've had 12 losers in a row.. everything can go wrong. Oh but what I'm getting at... ? My point is that I don't need to hit a big winner or ride a trend. I just need to do what I've always did to win. If I just do as good as I've always did then I win. I win by default provided I don't lose too much. So, I always watch the size of my losses. I don't see a singular truth. I see possibilities.. combinations. Different styles. Whether I'm hitting for consistent wins or big winners.. as long as it feels right and fits my personality. I mean that I like to pursue multiple truths and find what works for me. For me I think my style is just winning.. hitting consistent winners. I feel I will do something great. But to get that to next level.. I don't think I have enough an edge to do it outright. I believe I must bet more when I'm more confident. I mean that I could probably hit 30% to 50% returns with constant betting. But to get to that next level of performance.. I have to push my winners in some way/shape or form. whether bet bigger or let run further... gotta do it someway. I agree the edge in the futures market is slim to none if played at constant risk. Also the truth of futures, you can lose a lot more then you want too. So, you know I don't like futures because I want constant betting. I don't like the risk but it is the most efficient and profitable instrument for me. I mean if I had constant risk betting, a fair constant bet like a binary option, then I could take more types of ideas. I mean on a range day, great day to fade to value but in futures you have to use a huge stop to do that and risk taking a big hit. That's ideal for a binary. What I'm trying to say is that futures are best designed for trending. So some of the beliefs traders have are maybe not the "truth" but just an artifact of their instrument. But futures are realistically the only game right now... I'd rather trade vertical spreads or maybe binaries that acted like futures then futures. I mean I like the products NADEX has but they aren't quite prime time yet. But yes.. I eschew unlimited risk. Hate it! But also.. its what I'm best at too. I mean I only trade the futures because they are most profitable but I don't like risk either but the futures are ideally suited for me but just not perfect. I've always known our trading styles were a lot different. But, you found truths that led me to discover my own deeper truths. Again though when I say "the way I trade" or "how I trade" then it is just one combination that I like. It is just one style. It doesn't mean it is my only style. It is just the ones that make sense for me or that I like. I started on the simulator years, years ago and traded just like Livermore building a stock positions and riding the trend. That worked for me okay but then I guess I found what worked for me better... But again I don't see it as ultimate truth. I focused a lot on how to trade a tiny account.. You know where I could only have 1 position and that influenced me. If I had a million dollars then I might trade differently but then again might not! Thanks for stopping by! Stay in touch. Always appreciate your opinion and respect your work. I think your book is the best book on trading (for me) it was. It just made everything make sense. I had a few other important discoveries along the way too, of course. PS: I'm reading "What I Learned Losing A Million Dollars" by Paul/Moynihan now. I see a lot of similarity in what you're getting at in this.. Thanks again and good luck with your trading too.