baggerlord: Psychology is the greatest fraud on Earth. Every person can be classified under some diagnosis. It doesn't mean anything. Look at who focuses on psychology usually? The losers!! I've told you what it takes to be the best. You have to believe it is possible to be the best to go through with all the work. The people who talk about "no ego" are really saying "no responsibility".. They're the no responsibility folks. They're the trend followers who can't be wrong. They're the losers. You want some real psychology? Everything in this world is working to kill you..to break you down.. eat you. Digest you. It takes a strong mind to stay sane. To look out at the world and recognize that you're the only sane one and the world is crazy. If you learn that then you've learned everything you need to know about psychology. Every form of mental illness is the result of one refusing to reject the insanity of the world.. its a weakness and weakness is sickness. But what is worthwhile is working at something you're good at... I'd rather have my abilities then work for any hedge fund on Earth. I don't care if I have to work 10 years to make it happen. Knowing what the market will do next is worth more then any prestige, any salary, any job. That's what I can do at my best and I wouldn't change a thing!! Now let me say one more thing, I said YOU CAN DO WHAT YOU THINK IS IMPOSSIBLE provided you are willing to do it. I have a system that if you started with just 10k some years ago then you'd be up to several millions dollars. It made many hundreds percent return. However, to do that return... to get that then you'd be up to 9 million at one point and down to 6 million. Not many people are willing to suffer that kind of swing.. This is why I'm trying to find a balance that can get me to my goals but also be something I can live with. You see your success is determine by how far you're willing go to do it...The losers are those who never learn, always trade their stupid charts, etc. I believe one can take it as FAR as one is WILLING. Many would look at it what it takes to get there and decide it is not worth it. I aim to find balance to get there on a terms I'm comfortable with.
Now to share something a bit different.. I've been really focused on stops and risk management. I've recently vastly improved one of my system by adding a new risk management component that looks at the amount of time the trade has been open and how well it is performing in relation to the goals and to what I consider normal versus abnormal. Basically, we are looking to see if the trade is improving or not. If the trade is losing and not improving then we will cut it and, of course, we raise our criteria based on how long we've given the trade to work. My explanation for why this works is that the faster extreme movements in the markets that take out the stops tend to be inefficient or gaming moves (or just weak hands) whereas the "trend" is real. But, the real trend takes some time to develop which gives us usually but not always time to exit before our stop is taken out. Of course, the devil is in the details and that is proprietary and probably specific to each implementation. But, this provides at least some insight into better ways to manage risk then just setting a fixed price stop. Basically, its the difference between the trader who jumps out at the worst possible time when the market moves against him versus the trader who gives the trade a bit more room and evaluates it objectively and calmly. The more level headed trader doesn't win every time but on average he will do better. In essence, I've coded a very simple rule-based take on what I do when I try to manage risk via my tape read. Interestingly, once a determination is made the trade isn't working out then it tends to work better to cut it without trying to get out at break even. This may indicate that I'm trying too hard to "catch the window" when I should just be getting out of those bad trades.
Lucias, I see you are at the beginning of trading, you have to learn much more and build more on your own strategy. At Collective2 I see your are not trading a simple strategy, doing more on your feelings. It is really good to see the best in you, but do not overplay your ego !!! Some of the Best traders in the world have fallen down on this. Where is the 10K to millions journal??? On collective2 you gone from 46K to 78K in 2 years not worth living for !!! Hf and Gl in trading
Thanks Alex! I'm happy with my results. My goals have changed a lot over time and so I wouldn't read too much into my record -- good or bad -- without understanding what my goals were at the time. My current goal is to make 1k+ on days that I feel like trading. I think I should be able to make a living with 85k to trade -- surely. But this is a difficult/high risk goal even for me. Today was really good and really ugly. I didn't have a good read on the market. My first trade was to play for a measured move bounce. I didn't like the way that trade was working and dumped it -- just before it would have hit my limit. I was starting to get short biased when that trade fail. I got short on the first break and then they run it all the way to my stop which I adjusted like 3 times and still they ended up just barely nicking me. At that point I was down big and feeling pretty bad but I remember what I reviewed about stops and tried to determine if I was wrong and said no I'm not wrong and got more aggressive to short side. I had 5 cars short and then try to add another. However, the way the order entry system works -- it can over write my order when I get a quote and so it over wrote my order with 5 lot which meant I was short 10 lot and my max size is around 5-7 and never more. I would normally just dump them but I thought I could set a limit and get out at break even. It ran just a few points against me and I knew I had to dump or risk a larger loss* then I wanted. So I dump them for a loss and then I added the 1 extra. Anyway, finally it started to break and added 1 more. I try to add a bit when I'm more confident. I think that's going to be key for me to get to a higher level of performance. After all my mistakes and stop hit, I net about +$1800. Interestingly, I looked at several solid trading systems and my performance was at par with the best of them but not better. Of course, had I held the extra cars then I'd have made a lot more but when I make a mistake: I prefer always fix it immediately then evaluate. Really reviewing my performance helped me because it clued me that I needed to be more aggressive using stops. Really what stops are good is if you think the momentum will run against you then it gives you a chance to get out and re-consider your idea without getting run over. However, there is a cost to that. This is why I experiment with hedging in a correlated instrument but then I risk it going against me if I don't manage to scalp it on that first momentum blast. I've found the following methods to work well for stop management: Use a moderate stop and be aggressive when re-entering. Some performance is lost on each re-entry. Use a wide stop and give the trade plenty of room to work but evaluate it over time and exit it before the stop is hit. Use a correlated instrument to hedge and try to scalp/hedge the momentum. This works brilliant when it works but requires high performance. Many things can go wrong. The benefit is you don't lose the performance on the already open entry. One thing I'm starting to like though is that C2 has a constraint feature that steps the stop for me based on a set risk per trade. This is really great when changing contract sizes because I can add an extra contract when I'm more confident without worrying about increasing my net risk -- of course only to a degree. But I really like that, it frees my mind from thinking about stops. Then when I get a chance I can go and evaluate and see if I want to adjust it closer. I think if I can get comfortable risking 3%-5% per trade then I can start hitting some really big returns. But its hard because not every trade deserves that much risk. One trading style I never master is using a tight stop (2-3 point) and a large target. This is a style that I've heard some vendors and traders have success with but it never work for me. I can see the benefit because one could trade more cars.. But maybe its not personality..
Today was brilliant and ugly The good I was up +5666 dollars this morning due to a bug in the system that didn't cancelled my limit orders. I closed immediately. I would have made only +1800 I said with this gift I will promise not to trade because I was tired from trading all night. And it wasn't until late, late in evening that I even bother to look at market. I said I'll place a small trade just 2-3 lots which can't hurt anything. I place it and immediately in profit and showing a huge profit which confused me and thought it was wrong. Had a chance to take a nice profit 2x but thought I only had small position. Then it ran against me and I realize I had open 6 lot. I avoided the worst loss but made another mistake that cost me $700 more then it should have. Net, I made $4666 so it was still a good day.. that mistake just really hurt especially since I went from being down 6%-7% for month to up 2%. Now I'm probably only up a small bit.. I lost it too fast and was only expecting to lose $250-$400 at worst. I have to be more discipline. I rely on risking more when I'm more confident to win. The problem is that I click a symbol to get my quote. I read the market by clicking the symbol. I prefer to read tape in this way but the button changes my order amount even after I set it. So, this has happened 2x now. It wont happen again. Maybe I should set all orders to enter in 2-3 lots only.. Well I guess at end of day I can still be happy that I net +4700
Spot on bagger. Pathetic... Sad & pathetic. The sheer energy he devotes to this thread is fascinating.... perhaps Harvard should be notified for a potential case study candidate in the making here...
Real transparency. I know some vendors/traders talk about transparency but few offer the real transparency that I have -- with an audited long-term track record of trades available -- the good and bad. While my results are absolutely hypothetical and I'm not currently trading with any of my own capital at risk, I do have have a subscriber who is currently taking my signals at live and at a full size and that too is visible. Of course, I'm not really a vendor in the way of most big name vendors. I strive to be great at what I do best -- predicting the market -- and not selling stuff. I think other "elite traders" should consider how I've did things and how it might make sense for them. C2 is the most accurate way of sharing "calls" that I know of -- which is why I use them. I just submitted a trading program to Striker Securities that will be auto traded (no money at first), as well. No affiliation with either vendor. My point is there are opportunities out there for the trader without capital to build a track record that I believe over time may lead to one becoming a successful professional trader. Of course, it takes a long time -- as anything. I haven't made anything tangible for my efforts so far. Most people are attracted to the slick con man versus the one who offers real value but then people like to hear what they like to hear.. Break Even After trading all month, I was up 2% today but made a mistake and am now break-even for the month. Break even is interesting to reflect on. It is good to be at break even after being down something like 8% this month. As for edge, after a month of trading I've not made anything. It kinda makes me wonder if I have an edge then why I should be at break even? If you're losing then its temporary and if you're winning then its good but break even causes one to reflect on whether or not they want to continue.. whether they have an edge. And when you're trying to do 1k+ per sequence like me then it just shows me how far I am from that goal and it makes me ask is it realistic? And why the bad performance? My largest losses came from my systems this month, My performance suffered I believe from 2 temporary reasons: I learned I was being traded live and a good friend and mentor was negative and discouraging to me. I wouldn't have even known that I had a live trader except that I watch the tape so closely that I recognized that the orders were mine. Don't ask how I did that! I'm absolutely over any perceived performance pressure from trading "live signals". I view each trader responsible for his own wins/losses -- even if they follow me --at end of day they can see every trade and pull it, take it, etc. My only responsibility is to provide my signals and stay true to myself. I'm also over any discouragement. I believe it drop my testosterone for a couple days which hurt my performance. So, I'm over that.. And I know my system makes money and so I'm not worried about it taking an occassional hit. The only performance problems remaining are the user interface problem which is something to think about and the size I'm trading which caused me some problems with stops. I think that trading this larger size this month has been net detrimental. Part is psychological because I've almost doubled my account and so what used to be a normal position for me must be 2x as large for me to keep my leverage the same. The other is that Ive juiced the leverage up a bit more to try to hit my 1k goal and while I've told myself that I'm okay with risking 3% to 5% per day. I haven't got comfortable with that yet. Finally, I think that some of my losses have been because as I've increased size, my targets have gotten smaller but I'm not fast enough to trade in the smaller time frame. I can see what is happening but I can't react fast enough to have an edge. And speaking of edge, I think the futures market is very efficient unless trading "around the edges'. I mean you have to cheat in some form or another. It might be using really large stops or having a low win ratio.. You have to do something that others aren't willing to do to win. As for my market read.. my predictions are still on target but the stops cost me several thousands in performance. I know some people here shout and hoot when they make a good call but I make very accurate calls every single day. I've always told myself though: that's what it takes. To win at trading, you have to win every day. You have to always win. While too early too say if I can make a real worthwhile living off an 85k account, I did last month at least. The difficulty I'm having tells me that there is no way that you're going to do it with a tiny account. Even at 85k and let's say you trade 1 contract per 15k which gives you 5 contracts. Now let's say you can do 50%-100% return per contract on the minimum possible and let's say that's around 10k then you're only making like 50k! To do that 100% you'd have to size to 8 contracts.. What it says to me is that not only can you not make a living trading a small 10k or 20k account but that its darn hard to do it with a large account without taking extreme risks... Let's say you do "100%" on each contract or 10k then that's only 50k!! Basically it shows me that if you can't make 200% returns with low risk on a 10k account that you can't make a living with an 85k account.. I mean a really good living. Even if you can do 200% on 10k then you have to do it with excellent risk adjustment. Anyway.. I'm going to keep trying to meet my goals. If I can't make a living with 85k on the simulator then other then trading OPM then really I can't see myself trading for a living because even 20k-25k has been a savings "bridge too far" for me. But its something to think about, I mean let's say your able to make your 50% on 10k (5k) then you need to trade 20 contracts to make 100k per year. If you do 10k per contract then you need to trade 10 contracts.. Say let's say you allocate 15k per contract (less risk because bigger account) then you end up needing something like 300k to do it..
Calculating Par I typically calculate what I consider a "par" which is some sort of measure at my best. Striker posts the actual signals that the systems it tracks make after the fact. I've started to monitor that as another measure of par. Well today, lol.. every system lost money long or short. Let me back up.. every day trading system lost money. But the swing traders made some money closing out prior shorts and long. This was truly a day not to be day trading. I mean the futures market is one of those thing where you can look at it one way and question how anyone could make any money from it and then look at it another way and think you can an almost unlimited amount.. perhaps the truth is somewhere between those extremes.