"you are going to get creamed if you ever do get capital, you'd be better off investing in your local knitting class, getting patient and humble, and returning to the markets knowing that you will lose, that you are a loser, and that you are an idiot, only then will you be able to have a shot and beating the market..." I printed it off and pasted it to my monitor
Trading on my hypothetical account has been amazing. I'm currently experimenting with some new trading styles. I'm not "changing" what works for me but trying to add in some new elements. The motivations for the changes are involved. But, I try to explain. I've focused so far 100% on trading a tiny account which meant I'd have 1 position open at any time. I also predicted the entire market and so I didn't think much of it. However, I've grown my hypothetical account to almost double what it was when I started. Also, I've kinda started to change my thinking that if I'm to get funding then they may want to see how I can trade a larger account. But, also, I want to see if I can take advantage of some of the benefits of diversification and market neutrality. I'm still predicting direction but trying to "add in" some of the principles that the professionals use. But, the other reason is that I've increased my goal to making 1k per day on days that I trade on my hypothetical account. My h-account is only around 75k and that's potentially a huge annual return -- even for me and so I'm looking to "take it to another level". So far I'm doing it. My goal is to keep daily/sequence losses to below 8% of my account. I've set a high risk level. I'm looking at the "sequence" as a whole more now then the individual trades. I may hedge with one future and make money on another. So, this is a very exciting time. I still haven't proven to myself that this will be the method. It may be that it requires a certain amount of volatility for me to pull this off. But, so far it is working brilliantly. I'm also experimenting with fundamental-analysis trades for the first time -- still limited to the futures. Remember, my futures system is now among the top 4 or 5 ranked of all time on Collective2 and so for the people and even some vendors who rag on me then all I have to say is that by observable measures well you know what it means and you know, deep down, why you aren't ranked. My plan going forward is to keep experimenting, keep winning, and hitting my goals. I want to see 1 to 3 month performance using the new method before I will call it a "working method". I've won with my other methods for years. It may be that instead of hedging with futures that I start to hedge with options. I'm basically going to more of a quasi "market making"/speculative style. I'm trying to take advantage of more opportunities and also the professional trading concepts like diversification, delta neutral, and hedging. What else? I've also open a trade station account 3-4 months ago. I ma hoping to increase my system analysis methods, as well. I haven't placed any trades because I'm not sure if I have the margin to hold the ES overnight. I'm going to look into see if I can spread margin rates or possibly trade the NQ. I plan to start to taking some actual futures trades in the next 1 to 2 months. I'll probably start by just trading my when my system triggers using systematic approach. It may be that I have to start with the NQ versus the ES or it may be that I have to do a spread combination. If I can't get that to work then I may go to options. My "market making" and hedging styles require a lot more capital and no fear. It is very performance activity where a small decision can make 1k of difference and so I will not attempt that with real money until I am convinced I can do it and have sufficient capital. I'm very good with where I am at right now.
Post your real money stats and people might take you seriously. I was a great papertrader too. Or you could combine all these essays on how awesome you are into a brochure. Either way you can't go wrong with your rare combo of earth shattering talent and fierce humility.
All my real money stats were posted. At NADEX, I was trading a 3k model account but due to money transfers I had 1k in the account by midway. On 1k margin, my net peak return over what 3-4 months was +150% or $1500 My closed return was around 20%-25% or $200 to $250 Leverage used was typically 30x-50x A linear extrapolation would imply returns of around 80% to 150% for the year. I closed at a low point to take part in a proprietary trading opportunity which didn't go anywhere -- but which I learn from. I would have very likely returned 110% to 200% since that time. Of course, I came close to blowing out the margin which would have been a 33% drawdown on model account. I can't place the type of trades I do on futures at NADEX due to cost differences. My edge is too small. I can likely do around 50% to 120% following my system. You have to understand I have many methods. I have a system where I can just follow the rules and make profit and then my discretionary trading which requires a high degree of skill. I would not attempt high performance trading with less then 50k but do plan to start trading my system with futures soon. Part of my reason for trying new style was my real money experience, I synched my hypothetical account with real money account for 6 months so I could evaluate in real-time the differences. So, I've a good feel for the differences. It was much more stressful trading with real money but I was also leveraged to a far greater degree and had difference in instruments. I had trade through maybe 12 losers in a row with real money. It was my worst losing streak ever. At any rate, I took every single trade until I ended the project. My experience with serial correlation of losses is part of my motivation to make my methods better. This is why I like my new "sequence" trades because I might lose on 1 trade but win on 7 more. Net/net I'm profitable which makes it easier to take the losses. The problem is I need more uncorrelated instruments to predict..
I took a big hit today. I'm shooting for +1k per day on a 70k account and keeping risk to below 3k to 5k per day. This is, of course, on my hypothetical account. Typically I've only shot for 30%+ per year.. so this is a something new. I took a big hit today in crude. It hit my target but I held on anyway and then it reverse against me. I was up about 2k today. I made an analysis error. The type of trading I'm doing now is very high performance. Very little room for error... I know that my simulated training is real though because I rarely take any risk. So, I know that I trade my style. However, today I made a mistake. I usually make many mistakes and don't take a big loss. It was -$400, -$500, etc then just kept moving against me. My problem was that I tried to turn a momentum trade into a 2 week speculation which was another trade idea. It hit my target. It seemed like it would be an easy, nothing happen day. The loss really surprise me. Its a good lesson for me. Technically, it is within my normal limit but 4k erases 2 to 4 days of work. I haven't taken the loss yet but I've set a stop. This is why i hate the unlimited loss of futures. At any rate.. I'll recover. At least my gas prices will be lower. Real money trading, nothing happening. I'm focused on hitting 1k+ per day. I did attempt to place an trade on NQ in futures account but I haven't figured out the Tradestation order entry and decided I better figure that out before trying to trade.
Lucias, you are completely bereft of emotional intelligence. What don't you get about the fact that no one cares about your make believe *hypothetical* account. Trade a real money account for two to three years and come back with the documented results. Your previous posts on this board are indicative of a very troubled soul out of touch with the real world.
Well, I'll give that it makes me wonder why I feel so much pain if this isn't real money. It hurts me pretty bad. I wish it didn't. It hurts me pretty bad though.
Coach: How's it going? Me: I'm in a bad way. Coach: How so? Me: I've let this crude contract run against me. I predicted it to go up about 50 cents and it did but I didn't take my profits and I didn't take my losses. Coach: Why didn't you take your profits? How much did you have? Me: I had about $1,000 in profits. I wasn't even thinking. I was thinking it will go to $90. My problem was that I took a momentum trade that was really super leveraged and tried to hold it like it was some sort of trend following trade. Coach: I see. Well, that's the good thing you recognize what you did wrong. Otherwise, how is your trading going? Me: I'm setting a new goal +1k per day. I'm hitting 1 or 2k per day pretty easy. My goal is to keep losses below 3.5k but I know they could be up to 5k. I've been doing great. Coach: So how much you lose today? Me: I'm down 6k on the crude. I made +1500 on my other contracts which puts me down -4.5 so I'm in range and I've set a stop. I haven't calculated how much I lose if my stop is hit. I'm looking at using a call option and closing the trade. I think I may have a window to close this out tomorrow. Coach: Okay, you need to focus on what you're doing right. Remember this is an experiment. You've been hitting profits beyond your historical limits. It is not surprising that you take a hit but you have to keep trading well. You can't let one trade stop you. But you may have to change your methods... When you try reach your limit then you may find your limit. The good thing is though that you're doing this on a simulator. Don't let one loss ruin what you're accomplishing. You're really making a lot of progress. I want you to relax. Breath. Now, I don't want you to place any real money trades while you're losing. Some people start to lose and they lose their mind and lose a lot more. Breath and realize that a 4k-5k is within limits. Now granted, you are loaded on some other trades too but if they go against you then that is normal. You have to treat it as a new sequence. Keep thinking and working.. this is a great experience for you. This is a great lesson. But, you need to be in the right mind to understand it. Release all the stress and relax. You're making great progress and much, much closer then you think to realizing your goals.
Coach: You are the best. Me: I know! Coach: No seriously, the world is your oyster, it just doesn't know it yet. Me: The fools! Coach: Bide your time. When the fruit is ripe you will harvest. In the meantime perfect yourself. You are on the edge of immortality, just stay the course. Me: Thank you master. What will come of the doubters? What is their lot? Coach: They shall pay for their insolence. Me: Let it be as you say.