I'll agree that the statement has a primary problem in that it is not well defined and different definitions would yield different results. More over, even if we agreed on a definition then the terminal period for the evaluation would either be arbitrary or after my death, neither of which are appealing. However, I think the "feeling" with which the statement was made is compelling and rings true. That feeling was one of which that I'm at my best at this game, I'm on top of the market, I'm understanding what's going on, and that I feel I'm extremely talented and gifted at this game. That's the feeling. And, this goes back to part of the reason I contrasted my offering a competition versus the difficulty I've had in finding investors was to illustrate how people take various orientations that aren't always conducive to their best interest. Often, people of similar but slightly different beliefs will orient into a competitive mindset even though that isn't always the best thing for them. While people with more different beliefs can often orient into more collaborative and beneficial roles for both parties. Analogous scenarios would be gangs or even religions that essentially believe the same ideas but viciously attack and fight one another. And, that's a bit contrary but then most wars are wars about ideas. They are not wars against people so much as ideas.. and that's a real danger but something else. Let me get back to orientations, on one forum I used to post on the moderator would always look for any problems with my ideas. His orientation was problem centric. He was oriented to finding problems. He felt that was his job. And, again many people are conditioned either by our education or human nature to look for problems rather then solutions. And, you have to ask yourself are people rewarded for finding and creating problems or for finding solutions?
The Importance of Reframing in Achieving Success I'm going to tell you another story. This is a story about how I was a programmer. I built and sold my first software when I was about 8 years old. I worked night and day programming away. At any rate, after high school I didn't go to college and instead tried to start some business ventures that were marginally successful. And, I was left trying to get a job in the software field. And, in my mind what I needed to do was to get better at programming and software development. It was all about you know how good I was. And, I was turned down for a lot of jobs and had a difficult time. And, my mentor, my scientist friend, basically filled my head with garbage because he reinforced this idea that obviously you know I needed more knowledge, more skills. And, when I finally got a job in then it turned out I was already better then most of the people working in the field. What really led to my success was a reframing of the problem and that reframing process involved carefully reading the job descriptions and then trying to make myself match what the people were looking for. One of my greatest revelations was when I went to an interview and the programmers interviewing me asked questions that were nonsensical, and that's when I realized: it takes an expert to know an expert. And, as part of this revelation I started to do things differently. I went back to school and got my associates degree and also got certifications. My success only came when I redirected efforts from increasing my expertise in my field to analyzing the way the people really made decisions. Eventually I applied for a job at Microsoft for a job that I probably wasn't really qualified for (but would surely learn quickly). The position payed a solid six figures and one involved a specific role that I had never did. Again, my friend the professor, said with just an associate degree and no experience that I didn't have a chance of getting the job at Microsoft, and it was foolish for me to even try. But, I did try and I used my prediction ability to predict what they were going to ask me. My successful prediction of the questions combined with that my extensive experience enabled me to pass all technical and managerial interviews, and I was cleared for hire. I didn't actually get hired but that's another story. My concern and the relevance to trading is that I'm pursuing this and probably other small traders with this idea that they need to make these astronomical returns when they may already be for all intents purposes better then the people working in the field.
Interesting. I worked at Microsoft (software developmnet) for almost 9 years, and am curious as to what group you were able to interview in WITHOUT a bachelors degree, where the pay was "6-figures". Microsoft gets thousands of resumes a week and they go into a database. Without a degree your resume would not even come up in the query for a job in my development group. Unless you are talking about manufacturing, packing boxes, or maintenance. But those jobs don't pay in the 6-figure range.
Remain calm Lucias, it sounds like you're having a breakdown. Try one trade a week, wait for your best possible prediction and slowly grind that small account up. Even a small profit is significant for you.
I was cleared for hire as a PFE, Premier Field Engineer specialist in .NET. The pay was around 105k to 115k and I would have received a 20k stock bonus on hire. At the same time I was cleared for hired: they had cleared for hire a candidate in Florida with a specialist role in another technology. The Florida office decided they didn't have that business need. And the branch office I was cleared for hire at decided that the other technology was more relevant. Everything you hear about not enough skilled technology workers is a joke, good one. Anyway, so they said they'd try to make a position for me and I could wait OR I could go again through the process which takes about 6 months and try to relocate to another state. But, a manager in another state wouldn't be guaranteed to hire me. The hiring process takes a good 6 months. There are multiple rounds of interviews and it is a extremely stressful. Anyway, my plan was to wait 6 months and then re-apply if they hadn't created a position for me. But, this was right before the big crash in 2008 and they were axing people right and left within a few months of my not getting hired. So, I knew it wasn't an option. Technology is a very tough business due to the outsourcing and demands.
My predictions have been extremely strong in the current market. I've won my last 6 or 7 predictions in a row. I've shared them all in advance with my interested backer. These are typically 1 or 2 day swings. However, my attempt at scalping on the DOM with tight stops has been a failure to date. It is break even or losing. I have to develop new proprietary indicators and technologies to trade on the smaller time frames, if it is possible. In general, I've found in my attempt at high frequency day trading: * When I'm confident and a trade makes sense then I tend to win on it. * When I'm confused then I tend to lose * When I've been winning a lot and start to lose then it is best to stop because I generally continue to lose for the rest of the day. * If I force myself to trade 24 hours per day then I'm only break even until I make a mistake and then I'm losing. * There are limited opportunities per day where I can profit * I'm more successful at scalping when the volatility is higher. When the market doesn't go anywhere though, I lose a ton trying to scalp. Scalping off major levels might be possibility when volatility is high. * My experience has made me even more dubious about the vendors who claim to scalp the ES for a living especially with tight stops. I could probably do it with large/no stops but then you risk taking huge hits for tiny profits. One technique I'm interested in is the possibility to layoff in another contract month. If anyone knows how that would work to hedge my risk..