What future contracts did you trade today? I'd be very interested to see what you are doing. Yes, I am a beginner trader, but at an academic level, I understand the futures market.
lol I give this 1 week. You can't trade futures with an account of that size. Have you backtested a strategy? Have you paper traded? My recommendation to you, with an account of that size, is to NOT trade every day. Instead, wait for those 1-3 setups / week that have you foaming at the mouth with excitement. You do not have the account size to take any mediocre trades. My advice, is to be selective as all hell.
I trade the S&P 500 index. I'm a specialist in it. I typically call entire market direction so it works well. Occasionally, if I think the NASDAQ will be exceptionally strong I might switch up. Most of my trades fall into certain groups: 1. Bread and butter. Calling direction. Discretionary. 2. System trades. 3. Hypothesis Based/Speculative/Relational/Creative trade ideas 3k is not enough to trade the ES. I do have a mechanical system I could trade with just 7k. Mechanical systems can't take as many opportunities, though. I don't trade the ES with my real money account. Instead, I am trading primarily spreads on NADEX. The point value is $10/point on the widest spread. I like it so far. They also have narrow spreads which allow one to get more leverage, i.e I was trading at $60/point or more. If my trade had worked out, I would have doubled my account, possibly. The cost of the narrow spreads is you pay a premium of a few points. One of the primary difference in the spreads differ from the futures in that risk and loss is limited. This makes them more geared for mean reversion plays where trending and scalping may work better on the futures because futures allow for unlimited gain and have tighter spreads. There is very little academic about what I do. I try to predict short-term, random walk. ;0
What you've seen the last few days is the institutions pull all the bids. At first, the retailers were selling into them and they were buying but below about 1313 I believe most of the professionals stopped or became trapped. I call this pattern, "bring it to me" because the institutions just sit back and wait for price to fall to what everyone agrees is the jump in point. Sometimes they don't play by rules though. I call bring it to me because they don't actively sell but they just quit all buying. This happened during the flash crash too. I detected this pattern but had other patterns that conflicted. This pattern is difficult to distinguish from low activity trading day. It seems it is getting more difficult too, to detect these patterns. As far as I can tell, the retailers started dumping heavier today. But the institutions still aren't buying. I thought it was a joke the first day they quit buying. This is very difficult to call but I'll probably try to buy 1 more dip but be out by Friday. I think that is the optimal course of action. Not a pleasant one though.
Available Capital: 2021.80 Not much to add... Very classic market profile shorting opportunities. I was playing a different game.
Available Capital: 1549 Note I haven't lost that YET. I'm adding to my longs on confirmation. That is only if price closes at or below 1270. It is only $10 per point though. If I lose 20 points then that would be $200 + $200 for my other spreads or about 1800. I will close this out before it gets anywhere that. I want to see what happens at 1313. If we can hold above that I think we got a good shot for a barn burner of a day. I feel most pros are trapped and not much downside risk from here. If we can't pull to 1313 then I will decrease my risk. Tomorrow is the last day of my buying spree.
One thing I wonder is if the normal patterns I trade have quit working because the S&P 500 was in a mini-bubble. If you look at when we hit 1295 typically and 1343 then this could be seen as a double top. Not a very evident one. I was looking pretty strong for a double top shortly after we touched the 1295 before. USD/CHF and the SPX which are showing strong correlation but haven't historically, as USD/CHF has been going down and SPX has been going up. The investor sentiment peaked about 2 weeks ago. I've some good ideas here to explore but too exhausted to get into proper flow. And what I really don't understand is why the S&P 500 was the preferred bet but can't even hold its own now. Intel was holding the market up and tech. The last time oil held the market up, the market just tore higher without caring. S&P 500 has been starting to trade more like a commodity. Makes me wonder if this whole rally has been one giant short squeeze.
"The last time oil held the market up, the market just tore higher without caring." Are you talking about that period before the banking crisis? In my humble opinion, the difference is quite simple, "confidence". We've just been through a major world recession. Everybody is scared something is going to destroy this tentative recovery. Oil supply issues could easily destroy any recovery and drive us back into recession or worse. There will be a relief rally today in the S&P!
Available Capital: 2496.80 Successful trading is a process of staying in market loops and balancing a recklessness with a degree of control. I wanted to instill a degree of recklessness into my real money trading this week. I demonstrated to myself that I can approach the market with the same degree of controlled recklessness that I use in my hypothetical trading. Moreover, I validated to myself that my years of training payed off. However, I became overconfident and went over my maximum risk limit on my hypothetical c2 account. My risk limit is around $3500 to $3800. I went double that. In futures, there is no room for error. You always have to have a stop -- even if a huge one. I've been trading perfectly and even read the tape properly on the day of the decline and was able to exit with a tiny loss. But, I got suckered back in and worse when I got back in, I decided they were trying to fake me out. That was my mistake thinking "it is a fake out". My mistake was digging in my heels. That's why I want to talk about NADEX, no affiliation. I'm trading the vertical spreads which are based on the futures. Thus far, I've been rather pleased with this exchange. They've been very professional. I think their products have the ability to challenge the mini futures, as well. If you, like me have been trading mini futures on the simulator: I'd encourage you to signup at NADEX. You can trade the spreads at $10 per point. It is important for me that I never go back to just sim trading. You can't go back and forth. You either do it or you don't. I could probably take 50% to 70% of the trades I'd make in the futures market. But to win, I need to take 100% of my trades. Yes, I give up some spread but I'm confident in my abilities and nobody else would take my trades. So, I want to encourage anyone who wants a product like a financial spread betting or CFD or a mini future but smaller to check out NADEX. I feel these products are competitive and will become more competitive over time. You can also by buying slightly out of the money get even more leverage then in futures with a very limited risk. With a max risk of maybe $200, I might be able to get a multiplier of $100 per point -- equivalent to 2 contracts. This is very powerful for me because I have the ability to both predict small measured moves and big moves. I mean what I've learned is that in futures you can't let these trades get away from you. Even if you have 100 trades under your belt and years of experience, you can't let your guard down. NADEX spreads are currently only daily but I've tried to get them to bring out a 3 day spread and they seem like they were interested. You also lose Sunday night. They trade like futures when price is near the center but when price is near the floor/ceiling they take on optionality. One other thing, I'm trying to return 3x or 4x my initial capital. I'm a specialist in the S&P 500. However, I know there are other opportunities out there. I feel I'm going to have to broaden my markets and look for more opportunities. So, I want to branch out slowly into some other markets perhaps crude and Europe. I don't believe in labels: day trader, swing trader, position trader. I feel I can be best as a 24/7 hard working trader. What else, I may top-up my account for psychological reasons. anyway, so that's all I have right now. One other note, my account didn't swing as much as it appeared because they take the max risk out when you put a trade on -- just to make that clear.