My paper trading journal (doing better than my real portfolio)

Discussion in 'Journals' started by IronFist, May 29, 2007.

  1. I've been doing this on since last week, and I thought I'd post it here, as well, and get some feedback from you guys, too.

    I pick a few stocks each night to take long or short positions the following morning. Each stock is held a maximum of one day, but may be sold earlier (or a stop order placed) depending on how things go.

    I'll make each post from that site its own post here, but the dates will be wrong up through tomorrow, because I have to catch up. If anyone wants to see the originals with their actual timestamps, the thread is here.


    Last night I emailed myself my stock picks for today so I could monitor them at work. My goal is to filter stocks for certain criteria the night before and then find a couple to be used for short term gain the following day.

    At the end of this post I will have a question for the traders here, too.

    I know it's after the market close today, but I decided to post my picks for today. I will update tonight with my picks for tomorrow.

    The format will be this:
    Symbol - Yesterday's % performance - Yesterday's candle formation (short description) - My prediction for today

    edit: this thread would be 11ty billion times better if I posted charts. I'll try do that tonight. No photobucket at work.


    EXM: +1.20% - Short Green candle bouncing off of rising trendline - GO LONG
    (I was wrong. -1.93% today. It gapped up on the opening and then went down almost all day. Money could have been made by buying at the open and selling quickly thereafter, but good thing I was paper trading today)

    DRYS: +4.79% - Big green candle bouncing off of rising trendline. GO LONG
    (I was wrong again. -1.5% today. It gapped up at the opening and then went down almost all day. The opening price was the high price of the day. Even a temporary long position would've been unprofitable)

    TSL: +5.27% - Green candle just under rising trendline. GO LONG
    (I was right. +2.79% today. However, I probably would've pussed out and sold at 9:50 when it dropped almost to the open. However, after that it was trending up all day)

    HOLX: HUGE (red) HAMMER after a down trend AND gap down on Monday. GO LONG!!!!!
    (I was wrong. wtf! I love hammers!!! Ok, anyway, HOLX ended up being down -0.61% today. However, the open was NOT the high, so some money could have been made by going long at the open and selling quickly thereafter)

    SKS: Huge red candle (Monday) after a hanging man (upside down hammer) (Friday). This is a total bearish symbol. However, because yesterday's red candle stopped exactly on the rising trendline, I made a note that said "probably go long." Even tho this is an obviously bearish formation, I thought the trendline might provide enough resistance to cause the price to rise...
    (I was wrong. The open was close to the high, and some money could have been amde quickly by going long, but I'm still calling this one a loss. However, since my notes said "probably go long," I wouldn't have entered it, anyway, as I wasn't sure.

    AIV: Bullish inverted hammer following a downtrend. GO LONG!!!
    (I was right. +2.39% today. A little bit of up/down (below the open at one point) at the open, but the rest of the day was mostly an uptrend)

    Uh, so looks like I was more wrong than right, huh. But with good money management you can still have more losers than winners and still come away profitable.


    For 5/23/07

    MNST: -5.08%. Gapped down, big red candle. GO SHORT.
    UNFI: -10.6%. Gapped down, huge red candle. GO SHORT.
    SSL: -6.28%. Gapped down, big red candle. GO SHORT. The bottom of this candle (the close) is touching the uptrend that has formed over the past two months. But since yesterday each time this occured I said to go long, I'm going to say to short this time instead. Here's a chart of this one. See the white trendline I drew:


    NARA: -0.06%. Inverted hammer following a downtrend. GO LONG! (that's what I would say if this stock had enough volume for me, but it doesn't. Total volume for yesterday was 251,380. Not enough)

    Alright, those are my picks for tomorrow (Wednesday).


    Then, I posted this reply in the middle of the day based on my picks in the previous post above:

    Opened at 47.13, currently 47.01.

    Opened at 27.54, currently 27.27.

    Opened at 37.36, currently 37.17.

    Opened at 16.10, currently 16.24 (too bad this one doesn't count cuz I said not enough volume).

    Since I'm hypothetically trading these, I'm gonna be conservative and say I put in trailing stops at 5 cents above the current price for shorts and 5 cents below the current price for longs.

    btw, I'd just like to reiterate that paper trading is 11ty billion times less psychologically stressful than actual trading.


    For 5/24/07

    VCLK: -6.77%, coming down from a peak, looks to be the start of a downtrend. GO SHORT.

    SVVS: -5.10%, big red candle closing around what might be a horizontal trendline (started on 3/5/07), but it had lots of volume so it might be the start of a down trend. GO SHORT.

    DDS: -6.56%, I forgot the name of this candle. I'm really tired right now, lol. it looks like this rotated 90 degrees counter-clockwise ---[__]--------------. You know what, I'll just upload a chart. Note the rising trendline I drew and CHECK OUT THAT TRIANGLE BREAKOUT that occured on 5/18!!!


    Honestly I don't know which position to take here. I want to say GO SHORT but I don't know. The volume is confusing me. I guess I wouldn't trade this one tomorrow. Anyone have any predictions?

    So only those two recommendations for tomorrow. I didn't really find anything else that looked decent in my filtering tonight.

    And just cuz I don't have any LONG recommendations today, GO LONG on BRCM.


    So far all picks are dropping. So my two SHORT picks would've been profitable, but BRCM would have been unprofitable.

    Actually, the whole market seems to be having a down day today so far. Everything in my real portfolio is down.


    I'm tired. I need to go to bed.

    My picks for 5/25/07:


    PIE: SHORT (maybe)

    See you guys tomorrow.


    So far SIL and TIE are both down

    RRI is up

    And PIE says "invalid ticker symbol." I must've been really tired last night when I was typing that, because I don't even know what ticker symbol I meant.


    Now they're all down.

    I wish I had actually shorted these this morning instead of going long AMD at $15.775 last week


    For 5/29/2007:


    MEH: LONG (nice hammer pattern but the volume is SO low (<100,000 shares) I probably wouldn't trade this one. But I'll say LONG just for fun to see how it does)

    ACN: SHORT (hanging man candlestick)

    And then my most recent post:

    Open: 27.96
    Last: 28.47

    Heh. Whoops.

    Open: 19.27
    Last: 19.03


    Open 15.04
    Last 15.13

    w00t (too bad I said too low of volume = I'm not going to trade it

    Open: 40.65
    Last: 40.45


    Alright, I'll update this in real time, now, as I update my thread on OT.
  2. For 5/30/07

    MBLX: Short
    IIG: Short

    UTIW: Short

    BIVN: Short

    Sorry, no longs for tomorrow.
  3. Ack didn't do very well today. MBLX is the only one that's actually down.
  4. For:

    NI: Short
    PAY: Short

    MENT: Long

    GNTX: Long

    APC: Short
  5. The daily charts so far today for NI and PAY are wack. There are many 2 min bars in there where the OHLC are all the same, so the "candles" look like this: --

    lol. wtf.

    btw, as of now, NI and MENT are up, PAY, GNTX, and APC are down. So I'm 3:5. However, they weren't that way earlier, and if I was actually trading these I probably would have messed up somehow and lost money.
  6. I forgot to update:

    For 6/1/2007:

    BTH: Short

    KMX: Short

    CBB: Short

    Only 3 picks for today.


    Ok, last night when I was looking at the chart for CBB, it showed the low and the close were the same. And this morning when I look at it in another program, it shows the low and the close were not the same, so that changes my recommendation of "short." wtf @ different data from different providers? And I don't have Heikin-Ashi turned on.


    ll my picks went up today. I would've lost money. And I was SO sure CBB was going down until I saw the chart and it was different. That pissed me off.

    Anyway, hopefully with good money management I wouldn't have lost much.