I'm one of the few successful traders that made it. Having many huge (7 figure) years over the last 10 years. But since 2007 I have had some down years to go with up years. And I think my high water mark was in 2007. I got almost back to that high water mark after 2009-2010 big run. But had a big screwup in Silver market squeeze in 2011 that hurt me bad. I had a nice run last fall but have already had a big draw down to start 2013. My real point that I wanted to add was, the big problem with trading is that the shelf life of most traders is so short. I'm relatively young at around 40, but I physically and mentally am finding it overwhelming to sit infront of the monitors from 7am to 4:30pm and then the evening glancing at markets and news and stuff that i think is necessary for being a successful full time active day/swing trader. Its like being an airtraffic controler except 3 times as bad i'm guessing. Probably at this point, every month that i keep trading, probably is taking a month off my life expectancy. So not only am i losing the month spent trading, my body is so physically stressed from sitting all day without moving much, along with the mental anxiety of staring at symbols bouncing around all day, i don't have a normal LIFE while trading. So is it really worth it to continue. That said i've been blessed by trading, I or my wife havn't worked a real job in 12 years. But at some point, if i keep trading I will look back at some of these years as a complete and utter waste. I am so fortunate to have something to show for all my years of trading. But many good traders, better than myself, have probably nothing to show for it except lost time. Like the thread starter talked about.
if after a year or two of trading you have learned no programming, no math, no risk management, nothing about quantitative methods.. it is obvious why you failed.. If you have been researching alot you will have learned ALOT and that can't be taken away.. Many of the skills are transferable in the regular business world.. especially if you are an entrepreneur.. Either way, the OP failed because he never found an edge to exploit.. and he has found someone else to blame..
maybe I am missing something you kids throw around this word "edge" "edge" is what Ceaser's has when you show up at the craps table what you call "edge" is nothing more than guessing right and still you have to overcome the "edge" the mkt has in the spread and the "edge" the broker has in the commission Just what is this "edge" you kids talk about? You mean "what has worked in the past will probably work in the future"? that's a hell of a way to live your life always with your head turned back to the past no wonder you all end up to be grumpy old men
MOST PEOPLE FAIL IN LIFE.....so it's how you define "Fail" and what metric you want to use. ok, you lost money trading. but at the time it was likely better than being owned by the man. so you had freedom it gave you a sense of pride, being in control of your future you used you mind, unlike idiots who work for bigger idiots you liked telling people you were a "trader," sense of pride gave you time to do other stuff; exercise, etc... not one person on this planet is perfect looking, genius, has 100 trillion dollars, etc....so maybe they think they are failures too. so on a financial basis, you "failed". but i don't feel for you. most people never even get to go for their goals... not everyone on this planet can be great. and money is everything.....for most. ah, whatever. another problem with traders....well, this one... he must be narcissistic for this kind of post. this self-absorbing personality where he needs attention is laughable. i'm sure he also has a blog somewhere. and videos on youtube.... i would bet on it.
I believe this individual deserves a proper response after 6 years of work- so after visiting this site for years (mostly for entertainment and curiosity) I registered to reply directly to him: There are plenty of successful speculators trading from home offices around the world. Take the legendary bond trader, Tom Baldwin for instance. After having made some $175 million or so (court records show in one particular year he earned $19 million) and after several serious financial setbacks (like losing $50 million in a stock deal, having an office building he sunk $28 million cash into foreclosed upon, and a rather contentious divorce in 1990), he is still going strong trading 30 year bonds from his 28,000 sq. ft. mansion in Michigan. Last week or the week before I spoke with him on the phone at home for an hour or so concerning my son's trading system so I know this to be true he still trades despite rumors to the contrary. I just celebrated or bemoaned my 40th year as a commodity speculator depending on your perspective (starting out in the bull markets of the seventies) trading AG products and continued to do so learning along the way until the early eighties when I became a large Crude Oil trader. I always worked from home unless you count the fact I liked to sit by the ocean in those green boxes in La Jolla CA with hot French bread and coffee and watch the markets while listening to the relaxing waves as they rolled into the rocks. I now trade several hundred lot in the S&P almost daily as well as hold very long term positions in Gold and Crude Oil (occassionally taking profits at big numbers). Silver now looks very attractive to me since it appears to be extremely undervalued relative Gold. I would have liked to buy it back in '02 with the Gold and Crude. But you know what they say, the best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago, the next best time is now or something to that effect. Thanks to Tom, I am trying my hand at the Bonds starting out with a 100 lot on the 30 year. This is my first venture into that market but it looks good so far trading my son's capable system. We'll see. I don't know that the world needs another lawyer though...
edge to exploit ! sorry but there isn't , these markets are very competitive and crowded with professionals , algos , investors , banks ..... etc billions and trillions of $ and some think that there may be some edge to exploit ! there isn't wake up , yes some "5% more or less" may survive and make some money , so yes it is doable but it is hard , you just need to survive in this battle that's it , it is hard but simple !
To some extent the same competition existed when Asia blew up in 97, ltcm in 98, the boom in 99 to 2000, the crash in 2001, the quant volatility in 07, the collapse in 2008, and the knight blow up last year. There were massive edges during these events, and there are small edges available every day still. As professional traders we live for the high volatility events, and just try to make a living the rest of the time.
Spreads, slippage and costs are totally underestimated in the main and never fully discussed. Spreads, slippage and costs are like tiny little black holes that eat anything...profits and mathematical arguements.
Slippage and commission costs tend to get covered up in high volatility high profitability markets. But when the markets aren't so rich for the picking you wonder why you are spinning your wheels and getting nowhere, and slippage and commissions tends to be reason. An even bigger career killer than slippage and commission is living costs. A guy with a family and mortgage needs to make what at least 50K to get by, more or less, depending on lifestyle. Once you factor in living costs, commissions, slippage and spread, a trader needs to make around 100k a year just to keep the account balance flat for the year. And the tax man wants his share too.