It's funny how this thread turned quiet after Multiplan's wining trade and got reanimated after this losing one ...
with earnings on 10/27 (before)..... at this point you are correct there is no way to handicap which direction other than staying with major trend. Even if there was a "fundamental" reason to trade with the trend it's a coin flip which way it will move immedaitely post-earnings (st).
your analysis makes no sense to me... sorry. There is (was) plenty of time left for those calls to double (although I think the entry @ 1.80 was not optimum). I say that albeit I am short the same front 45c. BBY "could" trade to 48-50 by Nov expiry with no earnings issues before Dec 13th.
Peete's Coffee? Come on. Can you live with yourself taking such a trade? I mean really....peete's coffee? I know about losing trades because i have plenty of them. It is part of trading. I have been watching without much care until i saw the BBY call purchase--it was in direct conflict with every possible measure known to man kind. Which is why i said i'd just as soon sell them.
Iceman, I got his point and he's right! Consider this: A position initiated at $1.80+ when stock was at-the-money and with less than 30 days to expiration. If the stock had climbed up, it would have taken about $3 - $4 move to even out time value, otherwise the position would break-even at 46.90. But then the stock dropped with time value eroding, even if the stock rallies, time value would have been lost, thus the position would have been a waste of time and efforts; that is if any profit is generated within 5-7 trading days!
Unfortunately, 8 out of 10 traders remember their rules after trade has gone awry. I'll be more careful next time.
We don't know what's Multiplan's trading method, so it's expected not to agree with all his picks. After he posted his trades I did my analysis too and I wouldn't have entered either one of these trades, but I'm still patiently waiting to see his results in the long run.