well--- looks like my "read" on VLO was correct so far - mulit_option you gonna stick with the bull spread - ? Maybe you can repair it with the front 50p. (have a suggestion for your next front month spread - I will PM you with my thoughts)
Iceman1, thanks....you are right on the VLO. A drop to 48 is likely. How are you handling the straddle? Weekly chart supports your sentiment. I bailed out at 1.80. Looking at ACL and TLT.
yes --- the intent was/is to leg into a bear spread on AAPL (calls) I have a put backsrpead on right now in AAPL- which I have rolled twice-- in the front series-- and yes I may/will perhaps have to still roll it out --- into February etc. ....unless AAPL gets whacked after 1/2/2006
closed all 52.50c --- (.90) placed order to re-sell Jan 52.50c for .50 higher - and --- to sell Jan 50c if I can get >2.45 still long Feb 55p and short the Jan 52.50p- and +stock (ratio 1/2 Feb 55p) don't think VLO will see 48 - but could trade < 50 -- and its not impossible that it swings back to 55 by Jan 20th-- albeit it is not likely unless put volume picks up significantly on the front Jan contracts.
No! I bailed out at 1.80 when a shift in direction occured on my chart. My focus is on exit point if/when trade goes wrong before injecting $100K in January. Experiment is panning out well.
Why do you think the tail wags the dog in VLO? I don't understand the reliance on option volume or OI in a liquid stock. Meaningless.
thanks for the reply r/arb -- just an old habit I guess that has seemingly worked many many times- but no way will I argue with your comments when it comes to options --- however many times it seems the tail will do/does a large % of the wagging as we near expiry. --- b.t.w. I mean that sincerely not sarcastically. Any options input from you or maverick74 is always welcome! I am fairly good analyst/chartist on stock direction --- and many times --lately -- have been seriously thinking of trading much more on underlying and futures- messing less with option plays. The retail marginning is just a joke. actually spent some of the weekend re-reading much of Sheldon N's book ---- took several options classes with him at CME ---years ago. Ice
just interested in another opinion --- did you consider lifting the 140p leg today on the gap to new intra-day high- looking to re-sell it IF (when) PD (likely) reversed off the opening gap-- or is that too "iffy" a proposition? It has worked for me well sometimes - and it is tantamount to trading off the underlying - assuming a reasonably constant or increasing vega after any such reversal.