I thought the posts hinted that trades were high risk? Perhaps my approach, in regards to PEET's trade, was due to experience? I think most traders here are newbies who are still in search of some trading system that could help them. Really? I thought my trades so far were Call options? I also thought I did state that I buy in excess of 100-200 contracts; and that most traders assume that 90% of options traders lose money? Oh no, I wonder how some people process information! So, are you insinuating that my trading success is rooted in luck; right? I've been trading for living since 1996, first Futures, later Options. And fyi: I don't usually sell options, I buy instead! But what if my picks hardly lose money? What if my options play have 90% success rate? Would you maintain that traders would go broke following my advice? BTW: All traders (prospective and current) are advised not to trade with money they cannot afford to lose. If I may ask, how long have you been trading; and what's your success rate? How much have you made since you started? I have some screenshots that could blow away any trader's mind!
Interesting thread thanks for starting this multioption. Best of luck on hitting your 100k I do believe that your goal is certainly not out of the question. I have been getting into options more and more the longer I trade . AAPL, SNDK and a few others have been real good to me. Anyways there is something to be said by posting as you make your trades See you at 100k, SS
if this trade is any indication of your approach, then, yes, your success is most likely attributable to luck. buying or selling is irrelevant to reckless trading. even if you were successful 90% of the time (a highly dubious claim - which would put you at about 10 standard deviations above the average success rate of traders), your stated method is still remotely likely to bust out at sometime. how? risk of ruin. you risked $2000 (based on your 40 contracts and an initial stop loss of $0.50 - that of course you did not follow, which means your record would be even more suspect). you start with $10K as a base, that means you likely risk 1/5th of your bankroll on each trade. in terms of risk of ruin that means you would bust out if you had 5 consecutive losers. a 90% win rate means you have a 10% loss rate. 10% ^ 5 (the calculation for determining the likelihood of 5 losses in a row) is .00001. that means you are statistically likely to bust out once in 100,000 trades. it's a rare possibility given these parameters but all anyone has to do is change the values in the equation slightly to see how risky this kind of trading is. for instance by not following your stop loss, it suggests to me that your method is undisciplined so your likely average loss is probably greater than 1/5th your bankroll. also the suggestion of 90% success is ludicrous. so i'll be generous and guess that you risk 1/3rd your bankroll and you are successful 70% of the time. with these parameters, the calc drops to a likely bust once in every 64 trades. i've been trading since '85. i was a market maker on the CBOE for 4 years and now trade professionally for my own account. until i traded as a pro, i lost money for ten years. since then i average about 23% annual return (with a couple losing years tossed in the mix as well). i could show some awe-inspiring screenshots but what would be the point? it doesn't change the fundamental recklessness of your methods. i have no beef with you or any successful trader. whatever works, works. but in fact if someone wants to gamble, your method is the preferred one. basically take all your capital, toss it on a few 100 to 1 shot bets and if you win pyramid a few more times. if you are lucky enough to be ahead of the game after a couple iterations, retire and enjoy your good fortune. if you want to have long term trading success with options, there are many more sensible methods to pursue.
If winning 90% of the time is attributable to luck, would you say that losing a few times is ill-luck? I wish you know how I pick trades manually instead of relying on trading software! Your ignorance is apparent! You will understand as time goes on! FYI: I've picked over 217 options trades with just 3 resulting in outright losses (100% of the premium was lost). Would you be kind enough to post on this board 10 options trades without a single loss? ET members would be glad to learn from you more sensible methods that guarantee a long term trading success in Options. Please share your ideas if you really have something to offer.
if someone wins 90% of the time consistently it is likely not luck. but who knows, there are some that argue warren buffett is a beneficiary of survivorship bias. um, i think that's the point here. you haven't said anything about how you pick trades other than some reliance on TA mumbo jumbo. the fact is options are a zero sum, negative expectancy game. anybody who makes the outrageous claims you do - especially on this board - is either just looking for a few laughs or a scam artist hoping some sucker will pay you for your nonsense. this is laughable. first of all you're the one making the claims of god-like trading ability, not me. as to my ignorance on risk analysis, i'll leave that to others to judge. most importantly, none of your claims are either proven or documented and it still doesn't matter - if this single trade is any indication of your methods you show no understanding of how options operate, how to manage risk or how to trade with any discipline. my point is that there is no "method" that guarantees success. it's called "trading." it's a game with the odds stacked against you and populated by folks with bigger capital, greater access to information and processing tools and a lot more experience all trying to take your money. to even survive without losing is a challenge and at best i can encourage people to learn how options work and mostly how to pay attention to risk. tossing out trade picks is useless - it doesn't teach anybody anything about trading. it's as valuable as saying "bet red" at roulette. i rarely post to these boards but am a frequent contributor to other online groups (optionstradingcoach & theoptionsclub at yahoo and the optionetics discussion boards). whether anyone cares to peruse those archives or not it's up to them. whether anyone finds what i write useful is also their choice. there's no magic system for long term success. but there are an infinite number of scams that claim the opposite. who knows why i got involved in this discussion but your claims increasingly fail to pass the sniff test and i couldn't stay on the sidelines any longer.
Insincerity finally found its way into your response. Could you please show where my trading system is peddled on this board? Don't you think you're running ahead of yourself? I didn't create this thread to subject myself to scrutiny. You need to go back to the opening post!
yeah i'm probably running ahead of somebody. how would you interpret this from "Stock Options Made Easy" thread on 10-9-05? sure sounds like your about to go fishing here....
The purpose of this particular thread is clearly spelled out - to post my picks as I intend to grow 10k to 100K by December ending. In regards to the post you referred to, did I ask the guy to check out my trading system? I simply told him the ideal thing to do given that he's seeking to enhance his trading skill. Perhaps you should just wait and watch how "luck" (as you put it) would aid or fail me in achieving the aim of this thread. Of course, several options traders whose trading records are not enviable would want to learn how to pitch their tents with "luck" so as to generate mind boggling returns. But I advise you wait until I grow 10K to 100K before you warn them not to listen to me!
if you can back up your boast fine. as i wrote in one of my earlier posts "whatever works, works." but that doesn't change my opinion of the nature of your trading (high risk, seemingly ignorant of how options work, disregard for sane money management, undisiplined). very few can succeed long term with this kind of trading. in fact i know of no single trader that hasn't blown out big time with this mode of trading. my cautionary words still hold; let others decide whether to follow your lead.
Let time be our arbiter. I trade for living and have been doing so since 1996. My trades are picked in a way that many traders do not have the patience to adhere to, hence reason for my high success rate! BTW: Equity 'Options', with all the variables, greeks, and jargons, remains a derivative of an underlying security. Its worth is determined by Movement/Volatility of the underlying