Just don't over-complicate all this. And, I wouldn't count on simply picking direction, worrying about earnings (we always keep our finger on the trigger to respond, not react, to earnings surprises and their inherent over-reaction, etc). Daily charts are fine for quickly glancing at where the stock has been...overlay the SPX or similar, so you can see the correlations. But, intraday charts are just a diversion. When you get to where you know what you're doing, you'll find more time for other, more crucial things to watch. IMO. This is one reason why Btraders just trade equities, so much easier to trade market mechanics than trying to outwit the experts on the floor, and off-floor CME guys. In any event, just keep it simple, it really is. Don
Thanks Don for the feedback. "In any event, just keep it simple, it really is." I´m trying to find the nuances out, once I learn the mechanical application. Closed my two CALL trades for a small loss each. Jeff scared me with a moving average signal in Russel 2000 and IYT, transportation, or something. Had small losses, so just took them. My own chart showed we bounced over the regression line, which might not mean anything yet. But does mean weakness. So out it is. First loss is the cheapest and was not what I was expecting. Now I´m in the STRADDLE. The long straddle is an old friend. Applying delta neutral to it, promises to make up for what is otherwise a humdrum style of slow trading. Anxious to see what happens. I like the insurance aspects of the Straddle and even more like the buy low/ sell high aspects of going delta neutral. Something new to me. I can see the implications. Just need some time to pass to work it out.
Gain on PCLN, then loss, loss, and loss. I'm sitting at $8100 right now. Not much earnings left, and this is that risky time of the quarter, so instead, I'm testing out longer holds on positions like 1-2 weeks. Put on 3 spreads, bought 2 goog mar 610/600 put spread at $2.25, and 3 goog mar 615/605 put spread at $3.10 this morning. I wasn't sure which one I wanted, so took both and we'll see how that pans out. I think most of the Nasdaq large caps are overbought here. I also added an AAPL Mar 530/520 put spread at $300 per contract. Got in a little later than I wanted, but we'll see how these trade throughout this week. I figure if I was going to take a bigger risk, this would be it with none of that huge earning swing expected.
The market correction is closer if not here yet though. I think Jeff mentioned the Dow transports going bearish about 1-2 weeks ago. That would have been an early key signal, which is starting to hold form here. I have been watching the dow transport since he mentioned it too, and it looks weak. I think we get a drop on Friday if the jobs report doesn't impress.
Heck, I'm with atticus on shorting PCLN too....I think this is the level to get in now at $640, and maybe ride it down to close the gap. edit: I'll try to add a put spread here on PCLN too.
Ah, long straddles are probably better than short straddles, but just so painful to watch, LOL. Day after day of losing premium. However, all you're doing is betting on a big move in the stock price, and soon..... obviously the short straddle means you want the stock to stay where it is approximately, close to or at the strike price. Something new to think about: Stock at $30. Sell $20 puts and $40 calls. Collect money daily as long as the stock stays between $20 and $40. Don Don
Jeff So far the day´s action has stayed within my trendline channels. Don´see it dropping yet? It just went from above, to below. ( three trendlines, a la pitchfork.) It would have to break the lower trendline to mean anything. I´ve been watching my Greeks. Trying to learn them. The Gamma hasn´t moved yet, either side of the straddle. I don´t know what I´m supposed to see, but the numbers should change, either up or down, I think? Not doing anything despite the small move this morning. If anything, I would expect the market to go up by weekend. I was looking for practice how to adjust the Delta on this straddle and will have to re-read some of this stuff. But preliminary guess was an OTM Call at .10 delta to buy. Going to wait for the end of the afternoon though.