Given the last couple days it looks like there's high expectations, have you done any research into that one?
Well I finally exited HAL with a loss. Thank heavens it was only 1 contract. I´m finding my favorite indicators that work on indexes don´t work on stocks. The stocks are more erratic. Going to have to go back to the drawing board. I looked at SODA. It seems to have quite a run up over the past three days. Doesn´t mean it won´t gap upward. Probably will. But right now I haven´t a clue how to judge these things. Couple of losses lately are demoralizing, until I figure out how to trade stocks, vs indexes. Anyway, I´m free and clear and can quit sweating.
Sorry, not a report-trade, but I went long (short gamma) the AAPL Mar16 500/530/560 fly from 11.70 risk. I am long some time spreads struck at 525, but they're RT-neutral so my neutrality is around 530 on both positions. 11.70 risk, neutral to 530 cash.
I'd love to get into that too....AAPL's one I think is due for a correction, I mean we're sitting $100 points from its earnings gap just weeks ago.
Out shares right here at -2.40. Source of funds for the 610/630/650 Mar fly from 4.60 risk. 7.00 risk when assuming the loss on the short shares from yesterday's AH session. In reality I am much bigger in the fly, but for the sake of posting I will assign equal weight to both the shares and fly. Long (short gamma) the Mar 610/630/650 fly from 7.00 risk (5.20 actual risk on my book with share loss).
Yeah, I am a little exposed on the calendar so I went in small-short, but I like it outright short as well.
Yeah, SODA finally broke through its 200-day moving average just 2 days ago. The run ups not too bad, as the run here in 2012 was made in steps where it jumped from 33 to 40, corrected to 35 jumped to 43, corrected to 39, jumps now to 46, could be either direction at this point here, and the options are expensive too in my opinion, so strangle or straddle are out of the questions. Looking back at previous reports, it had a solid report back in November, the shares finally broke out of trading range at $28-$40 that held the shares for last 5-6 months. The interesting number that is tipping me to the calls would be the short interest in its available float. I'm talking 7M shares, which is 50% of the float being shorted already. Not sure if SODA can post a strong report again, but I'd say a small upside surprise and we get 15% pop. There'll be a drop to the downside too, but I think the drop is less severe, as it sounds like everyone is already short the stock.