All I hope for now, is to breakeven and cover my commissions, if I can get it? I got a feeling this market is turning, or has turned? My nerves of steel, got filed pretty thin this morning. Never even got to the beach for a swim. Have to be after market closes, which is 3 p.m. here.
No, I didn't know FSLR is set to report earnings? It's actually not on my streaming list, but I just checked the chart and its ugly. If anything, FSLR would be a good candidate for a strangle/straddle play. There's no way it hangs here at $42, but support is at $39 and could be a cause to push up to $50. Weak earnings could pull the shares down to test $32 (as is expected with solar earnings getting weaker each day). Other than that, I have not made an extensive review of FSLR. I'm sort of sitting on HLF and watching to see if the breakout holds today and how far it could run up on this breakout. Also taking a peek at ESRX for today.
My SPY programmed mechanical system just filled Buy No. 1, SPY March 136 calls at 1.90. Now the calls either have to sell at 2.47 or drop to Buy No. 2 at 1.60 with a new sell target at 2.25 for both Buy 1 & Buy 2 calls. The program output looks like this: SPY MAR136C: BUY 1= 1.90 x 1.3 = 2.47 (1 Buy Sell Limit) BUY 1= 1.60 X 1.4 = 2.25 (2 Buy Sell Limit) Stop: 1.30 The R/R on these type of trades work out like this: If Buy 1 fills and hits 2.47 there is a +30% win. If Buy 2 fills and hits 2.25 there is a +28% win (overall). If Buy 1 & 2 fills and then get stopped out at 1.30, there is a -26% loss (overall). (10 year reliability of this signal type W/L: 70%)
Sounds a very interesting approach. Would like to know more. I wonder though how many contracts you are buying? You are buying CALLS so presumably my QQQ´s are safe? ( grin )
Just checked SPY. There is definitely a BUY ORDER for calls here. Unfortunately, I have no more money in the budget. Now you guys have me looking at all kinds of things outside of my comfort zone. I think I´m going to have to pull back on number of contracts and diversify the trades? The problem is the day trader rule for me. If more than one buy get a same day emergency close, or exit, I would be screwed.
This is a 10 year old mathematical mechanical trading system that is combined with 5 other similar type systems and then programmed into a master program. The master program outputs various results based upon current SPY data and older SPY data up to 9 days old. Its looking at the short term and long term trends (3 day and 9 day) and then outputs various results based upon those trends (up, down, or none). It will either follow the trend, fade the trend, or do nothing. I normally buy around 10 contracts if a 1 Buy Only System is the program output, but today's output is for a 2 buy system , which means I have to divide my normal 10 contracts this way: 5 contracts for Buy 1 5 contracts for Buy 2 I don't know how safe your Q's are, but think about this: this system output today is telling me to buy -15% (Buy 1) and -30% (Buy 2) under yesterday's closing price on the SPY MAR36 calls and then sell them when the options rebound back up to yesterday's closing price.
I´m going to have to chew on that a bit. Basically you are looking for a buy opportunity, or averaging down, if SPY drops below -15% of yesterdays SPY close? Then averaging if it drops -30%, just to get back, to break even of yesterday´s close. I´m looking at a sideways market, of indefinite duration. But I have a rising low, due to a rising trend line. My stuff is still BULLISH eventually, same as your program. But the volatility has definitely gone out of the QQQ´s. A reversal has not yet happened, but it is inclining that way. A trigger event, like a sell off could do it. Otherwise, the price will hopefully rise back to at least breakeven, but not to give me the profit I originally expected. Since I made the BUY and am holding, the market is not doing what I had expected, so my rule is to get the heck out, particularly if I can get a break even, or even if I only lose commissions. This is not working out like I had expected. I want to minimize my loss though and perhaps even make something, a leeetle, instead. I believe the market is trying to find a turnaround in the QQQ´s but has not yet. Somebody panicking could upset the apple cart and start a free fall. Which would make my loss much greater. Though right now I´m within my margines of FLUTTER in the price action.