Hi Ryan- I've been following along with this thread and must say, I was skeptical at first, but your track record speaks for itself. I'll be trading along with you from here on out, trying to share in your methods. Do you have any thoughts on some other earnings plays coming up? I see GT, DE and GM reporting in the next couple days.
Whoa!!! HOld on here, didn't I say FOSL would open lower and then trade higher? I'm laughing hard right now because it did exactly that. And the only reason I got it right was through years of seeing this type of move.....I still have my spread, and I'll leave it alone.
Are you guys seeing this? FOSL is at $108.34 and the 105 call is trading for $2.80? or is my streamer off on the options?
Well I´ve been looking up company earnings reports, but it is sort of the same day on BLOOMBERG. Haven´t found a calendar yet, that gives warnings of them coming. Think for the fun of it, I will track your company pick trades with my technical indicator and since my guesses were BOTH wrong. Get the forecast from my technicals and bet OPPOSITE. ( GRIN ) See how that goes. 1) I´m still looking for information on upcoming company earnings reports. 2) I´m also looking for how you figure how wide the swings are? As a percentage of a price.
I think that volatility may just stay up for today....I don't follow the Nasdaq volatility, but the VIX is at its highs right now. Closed out RAX for avg price $5.50, nice nice profits there.....will look for exit on FOSL too, but I think I have room for this trade.
Ryan, That's interesting that you mentioned straddles and strangles. In the 1990's my wife and I would place a new set of 4 straddles or strangles every month after expiration. We learned from Don Fishback and then as we gained experience we applied some of own refinements. This wasn't our primary trading method (buying long calls and puts was on), it was just a monthly sideline. Here's what we learned: 1: Find a stock that normally has a good monthly price range, but has recently gone quiet for some reason. This usually means its closer to its 52 week low for implied volatility than its 52 week high. That will give you the cheapest options to buy. 2: Don't spend more than $250 for a call/put pair (under $2 is even better). Remember, the stock's price movement needs to be high enough to overcome your total call/put debit. 3: Don't buy less than 2 months time before expiration. That way you can let the trade play out for a month and if nothing has happened 30 days before expiration, close the trade (a time stop). Here is an example of what I am talking about: YHOO stock price 15.98 YHOO APR 16 CALL at .87 YHOO APR 16 PUT...at .86 TOTAL DEBIT................. - 1.73 Look for the stock to be in the middle of its trade range (look at attached YHOO chart. YHOO currently has an 8 point trade range (11-19). Let the stock move in one direction at least enough to pay for the entire debit and sell that direction, and then let the stock move in the other direction and sell the other half of the trade when you have a +50% to 100% profit on your total debit. Jeff
And here's where I think the advantage is to the spread trades. I bought to close the short 115 calls for my FOSL spread, and will allow the long 105 calls to run. Looks like FOSL broke through $110, and if it holds above $110, then we should get a few up days this week.