Yeah, I'll need to be bearish here... Might take a spread position on overall market itself... Not a good start to earnings this week for me either...
SBUX and MCD are killing me today. CROX too but I am pretty much stuck with that one. Bought a SPY Jul 141 put @ $7.44 and QQQ Jul 66 put @ $3.63 to try to mitigate. My only bright side is SO which just keeps on giving.
We're already @ 1350. Damn, I was perfect in my timing of completing my SPXPM fly (4 1360/1300/1240), but I sold 1 of the 1240P leg. I should have left it completely intact with max risk/cost of $1,600 because it could have been an extra hedge for my covered call portfolio at a small price.
Wow, almost dipped into FOSL 90 puts at $4.00.....after those losses, I just didn't pull the trigger. I reviewed PCLN again for tomorrow. The chart is showing bearish signs all over the place. RSI is lower on the second top, and looks like a nice double top formation, no break yet, but the height is from $675 to $760 in my opinion. That puts a target around $590. Short interest is at lowest in 12 months of reading, options have showed more interest in calls over the past 2 months. PCLN was weak last time on this quarter's earning report too at a -3% drop. Average earning swing would be about 7-8%. Analyst have 781 as their mean target, nice 11% above levels, and that's 19 buys/strong buys against 3 holds and 2 sells. Est. has increased to $3.5 on 1.39B, but the Summer quarter estimate of $7.38 on $1.39B is the important one tomorrow afternoon. Weak market, I think IWM just broke the head/shoulder formation right? I am putting order in on PCLN May 19, 2012 660/650 put spread at $3.00, if not triggered I'll pull back. I think we at least see PCLN touch that gap around $600-$625 to show support at that level.
Is FOSL close to extinction? EDIT: PCLN options are VERY expensive, hard to be a buyer on those. Maybe a $75 OTM Iron Condor might be best.
It is very possible SPY and the QQQ will drop again. Not much more than it already has though, I don´t think. Down pressure is still there. I´m sitting on 15 contracts in CALLS, but just going to hold. Figure it will come back to the regression line, either before this week is over, or next week.
Long May18 RUT 780/800/820 Fly @ 5.75 Short May11 CRM 145/145 Straddle @ 5.10 *Did not get filled on /ES 1350 Collar earlier today, suffice to say I'm kicking myself