i finally caught the market short. long SPY 142p - spread a little too soon (sold lower strikes 138 ) trying to 'neutralize' (free trade) and of course whenever I do that I am too early. Started legging out of 142 and creating bull spread with 138. Still holding some SPY 142p. May re-enter if I can "figure out" a further downside target. Closing of SPY/NDX gap was my target and everyone else apparently. Also long SQQQ from 10.38 (approx) and + SQQQ May 11c @.50 and +Sept 14c @1.05 / now ratio 2/1 on SQQQ June 12 @.80 Also in NDX bear spread +275c/-270c and holding (converted/rolled) fly ie. +2750p/-2675p/+2650p (after closed -2700p - the original body of my fly - for +2.20 profit per - on last pop) better to be lucky than smart. i expected the earlier gap to resolve and now don't know which way we go. I look for a bounce later in day on Monday, and maybe a higher close, but not higher high. Of course I gave up predicting after being hammered one-time-too-many back in the 90s. edit: also in AMZN May2 back/ratio spread -225 @395/+220 @190 (3/1 bearish) and AMZN May Fly = 230p/225/220p
Easy to figure out with a basic knowledge of options, maximum dollar loss is $159. Percentage depends on account size, number of contracts and how you want to play with the numbers.
Short 100 shares Short 2x puts (result=synthetic straddle) Long 1x 105P/125C strangle (result=105/115/125 synth iron fly) The rationale is to get into the fly cheaply via a gain on the underlying share-short and perhaps some gains from time/decay (synth vol). I earned a few bucks on the shares before selling the puts. The trade became a short straddle (synth) when I sold the 115 puts, which will become a fly when I buy the 105P/125C wings.
LNKD trade turned out to at $14.01 gain. Should have taken what the market gave at $1.60-$1.70, but closed out at $1.20 from $1.00 cost. the shares did move up beyond that opening price as expected, just not as much partly due to weak broad market. From $118 open, I saw it hit around $120.50 twice. I did jump into HLF 50/55 spread at 1.75, but I closed out the short 55 calls at end of day (sold at $1.72, bought back at $1.05) for profit of $114.49. Now if we can get the market to hold steady and HLF climb back higher to $50-$51, I'll probably short the 52.5 or 55 calls again this time letting the position ride to the end. Earnings this week. I like my bets on RAX, FOSL, and PCLN right off the bat with RAX and FOSL set to report beyond today's market close.
RAX gapped 20% last time, I think the options are expensive because of that gap, so I'm getting in with 60/65 spread. The cloud sector has been strong. I did see FFIV and VMW with solid numbers, and EQIX gapping to new highs on solid earning. I think RAX should continue its momentum growth here as the sector remains strong. There's 7% of float shorted, and shares holding above 20 and 50-day ma even with the market in a correction mode the past week. There seems to be support at the current level of $55-$57. I bought the 60/65 spread for $1.40 x 2 at total ($293.04).
Ryan, only problem I have going long earnings play is broad market seems a bit skittish not to mention been selling off (correcting?) recently. You still look for a 15% pop on this one?
RAX is a complete sham like CRM. Not to say it won't go up as they will say anything to pump it on the call.
I sold half of my SPXPM JUN 1240P, so I have 1360/1300/1240 fly and 1360/1300 front spread now. I didn't like the action so far today. I think the market will go down, but it may take some time. Correction: I sold a quarter of my 1240P - one was waiting to get filled.