The chart looks like it is setting up for a bearish trade, but I've got nothing on RCL, I traded CCL like once about 3 years ago, so I'm inexperienced in the cruise ship sector.
Yeah I agree with you about QCOM. I was long BRCM today and it has a nice little move. I'm hoping QCOM will do great too. Why did you going AMZN just out of curiosity? It had a bearish set up as well as each kindle sold would eat at the EPS number. I only has a few OTM puts for it because I was quite uncertain but bearish overall. Again, not grilling you (hope you don't feel that I am) just wondering your thoughts. As for QCOM I am only worried that the stock price is up so high but I will likely be playing this one long as well. Are you going with calls or spreads?
looked at QCOM, hitting major resistance, but wouldn't be surprised if it busts through on earnings; has popped 2 dollars either way, usually up, on earnings repeatedly last 2.5 years; am bullish later edit: that resistance is really strong, now getting cold feet, looks hard for the price to penetrate
Bry, that's how I feel too. Big ceiling right there to break through. But with such strong numbers from AAPL as well as royalty collections from other chip makers it's hard to see how they won't put up something good.
Through experience, most companies would go through a bad quarter like one AMZN had last Q, then surprisingly pop higher after its next report. The way the shares were trading here at $180-$190, downside pressure was limited to $170 compared to the potential upside of $230-$240. I was just playing with the risk ratio to my advantage. In the scenario above, my $1 risk had the opportunity for a 4-5 fold return. Just can't let that kind of odds go. Now I would not have set up the trade if I was still sitting at $1700, or if my account didn't show unrealized profits in IBM and SYNA yesterday. The way SYNA took off did give me confidence in the AMZN trade too.
Okay. I was just wondering. Many people I had talked to yesterday were very uncertain on the movement (as usual) but I was just wondering if you had different reasoning than them.
I was putting my bet on AMZN's history. About 3-4 years ago, AMZN did just that. I think it was a poor Q2 report where AMZN dropped to about $45, then the following Q3 quarter, AMZN surprised to the upside and the stock pushed right through to new 52-week highs. You'll have to go a ways back to see this move, I didn't even have it on my notes, just remembered it doing that. I was looking for a history repeat, which is as close to a guarantee as you can get.
As for today, I think I'm going to grab those QCOM weeklys 60 calls. I'm going to sell GMCR 60 calls to create a spread with the 55 calls I bought at $2.80 days ago. I'm hoping GMCR's rally today can alow me to sell the 60s close to $2.80 and get a free play on that trade. Then I'll use the $500 from that and play the QCOM trade. Might have to put a little in TSCO too, after all it seems like good pre-announcement has led to strong rallies afterwards. JNPR had a poor preannouncement and followed through yesterday, CRUS had a solid preannouncement, but then that trade just took off, so I couldn't get a clear read on that one. TSCO had a solid preannouncement and with CAT's strong report, the farming equipment side of the play should be strong. $300-$400 position in that one to test it out might do fine for me. I'll also have to look into NUS and MA, although I might prefer V this time around.
in 3 qcom feb 18 2012 60 calls. I went with the regular feb expiration because they were only 0.30 more in cost. Plus, my notes tell me qcom moves in direction of its gap after earnings. Plus, positions in syna and biib are starting to skyrocket. SYNA options are above $5, and biib i bought at 2.35 are above 3.3 already. Glad to see swk coming back to life too.
Wow don't know how I didn't realize it was only .3 difference. Rookie move. Luckily had enough gains this morning in the weeklies to get out and into the feb monthly with hardly paying up. Thanks for unintentionally pointing that out to me haha