Just remembered I had a paper trade on Goog as a DOUBLE DIAGONAL Forgot about until after the close, but put on early this week before the earnings. Anyway, it LOST $1.10 on one contract, double diagonal. For those curious and interested.
Maybe. Short term carry being around 16, 3 vol premium for a one week option is reasonable. When Babu first mentioned his trade, i saw the prices and also thought the spread was too low. Was looking at it all day. Even mentioned it to some friends. It was your comment about the report potentially being leaked that resonated because it gave some credence to the fact that vol might be muted this time.
The biggest mistake I made was not realize how elevated APR vol was... the weeklies.. fine... but I should have checked the APR vol I did enter the trade for a credit. Although my straddle at 630 is only 2 lots, it'll hurt me the most if vol really dives.
The weekly is just premium. The monthly will be vol, but even that is really only relevant as realized vol is close to zero (so far). The best trade would have been the weekly butterfly. But it was a slightly different and less levered view.
Atticus isn't interested but others might be. Can you give more details on this trade? Any other trades planned? Do you have more questions you would like to ask?
I don't have many directional indicators, but it seems reasonable given the lack luster rally so far. For me this bodes better because I have calls and it will be easier to liquidate otm weeklies than itm weeklies.
As long as it doesn't mess with my week2 630 puts I shorted. Thanks for your help atticus. Maybe there will be enough premium in goog to pick up a scalp or two tomorrow.