Thats what takes so many years to learn any darn thing in this. It´s the forward testing you have to do. As the market changes, you get different results. Months go by before you learn some useful tidbit. Very slow process this learning process.
I just realized the APR vol is quite elevated too.. Silly me. I'm thinking about adjusting a little by selling the APR exp and buying the May Expiration instead. I'll still be short the weekly expiration...
I keep harping on this, but a good book where lessons are structured in a particular order and where you can reference any questions in the future can speed up the process (especially on the technical stuff).
i've been long the listed aprils delta hedging it. It pretty fair compared to the weekly (trading a few dollars over).
You're not expecting the APR montly to lose much vol after earnings? That is my primary concern. I'll still probably make a decent profit. I just dont wanna lose 20+ vol points on my long options... That would suck.
I bet it'll work out well again after the churning settles down, but I did notice that it seemed to start spitting trades out a lot more often in the past few weeks. Maybe it needs a cool down period as the VIX starts ramping up =). I don't feel like I could ever trust a trading system because it has no idea what's going on in the news, but ultimately I bet it would have better returns over the long haul than I would. Leaves emotions out of it.
Do you really think Delta Hedging works? I´ve tried it twice only, but it has been disappointing. Now I´ve forgotten how to calculate it. Going to have to read up on it again. I´m trying overlapping calls and puts, but the moves are too shallow. Not even making bid ask and commissions. Making something, but short of any profit.
Does your close before earnings comment apply to the straddle or is that playing a $45+ move after earnings?
Reverse Iron condor ______________________ New one, 3 strikes OTM Buy 645 C @ $13.80 Sell 650 C @ $11.60 Spread -$2.20 Buy 615 P @ $15.60 Sell 610 @$13.20 Spread - $2.40 ___________________________________________ Paper Experimental trade Wonder what this is supposed to do? I guess you would want one side, to widen, A LOT. Vaguely remember something about this? Think it can only widen to $5 maximum? So you close it when the OPENING jumps, in GOOGLE?
I was "hoping" that the short side's IV wouldn't rise as fast as it has done... the short options IV has risen 10 points today- totally beating the unholy hell out of theta. Had that not been the case, theta alone would've done the trick for me. Pretty naive for me to even hope so but lets see, I've got till Thursday anyway. A not-so-aggressive IV rise would've made me some money but I've kept steady at around a $300-$600 unrealized loss for two days with the long options IV rising (albeit only a couple points). In retrospect a good trade would've been for me to be long the APR straddle like newwurldmn mentioned. But this "Tarzan does Jane"one will be fun to go through in real money.