I have a question for you. Do you believe you can "time" a naked put trades optimum volatility, to "coincide" with the timing of the trades initiation, such that the timing results in optimum "probability", of it becoming a successful trade? Thus it's a question about volatility vs probability. How would you rate/evaluate/assess/etc your ability to correctly answer that question?
I'm not in the mood for silly banter. And you don't seem to be in the mood to answer a serious question. Thus, I'd rather spend my time researching future potential trades, that are a "blend" of optimum.... "volatility, probability, safety, and % return". For me, it's all about the "blend".
There was the Jan "blend" and the March "blend" for WCG. I understand they are equal in % returns. Do they differ on the other three attributes?
There are more critieria I consider, other than those 4. Those 4 are the main structure. For example, if I really like a companies overall picture, and don't think I'm likely to get another opportunity to invest at a similar price, for a long time,... all/most things being equal, I may lock it in for a longer contract, and thus a larger dollar profit. That being, there are times I'll place more emphysis on the "dollar profit" than merely % return. (That of course assumes, the extended contract also meets my % benchmark). WCG is an example of that. Really glad I locked in "triple" my usual dollar profit when I did. I've only done the "triple" a few times this past year.
Put Master - This is related to stock selection, rather than options selection and execution. Other than being very near its 52 week low and holding so far, what did you like about Wellcare as opposed to Centene or Molina? I believe all three are considered small-mid cap with 100% govt-funded clients. I haven't invested in any of the names below, but once I finish my 'diabetes' portfolio, I might poke around in insurance/managed care. Thanks.
Hi Put_Master, Thanks for sharing your trade ideas with us, and congratulations on your success. I've gone through most of this thread and while I may have missed it, I haven't seen asked or answered the leverage question. You do seem to have hinted that it's north of 100% On average, how much leverage do you use? If every single current contract you have written was put to you tomorrow, what % of your equity would you need to buy the stock?
INSULIN: NVO (near pure play), SNY, LLY INSULIN PUMPS: PODD (pure play), JNJ, MDT DIALYSIS MACHINES: BAX, NXTM (pure play), FMS, Gambro (Sweden/pvt equity; getting bought by BAX), Nipro (Japan) DIALYSIS CENTERS: DVA, FMS DIABETES MGMT PRODUCTS (glucose meters & monitors, test strips, lancets, etc): DXCM (pure play), then a handful of large firms with x amount of diabetes-related business -- ABT (splitting into two companies 1/1/2013), Bayer, BDX, JNJ, Roche, Nipro (Japan) DIABETES DRUGS (excludes insulin): AZN, BMY, MRK, Takeda (Japan) and a handful of development stage companies
Before I look at a stocks fundamental health, price value, safety, recovery potential, income potential, ect..... I first look at their 2 year chart for tech support. If the stock is not close enough to a price, that I can select the strike I desire, then I don't waste my time looking at it until it hits my alert. The CNC and MOH you mentioned, are not yet low enough for me to consider for analysis and investment. WCG was close enough to my desired $40 strike, that it was worth my time to do an analysis and subsequent deal. So far so good... but it's only been one day out of 90.