So, TA can confirm what happened? Does it predict what will happen? What's the false positive rate for these indicators?
I am not convinced that using stochastic models are going to help you trade any better than just using a Bollinger Band on your candlestick chart. But if you love doing stochastic modelling then do it....and don't let anyone stop you.
Linda Rascke once said years ago that: “the best indicator of price is price itself.” Chew abit on that one.
What’s more important — my writing style or rebutting the scams/lies on the site? When you fight the good fight against the swarm of “believers”, the only way to stay sane is to keep a smile on and a laugh ready (or I’d be in tears over the sheer idiocy of some posts). Re: COT data. It’s useful to understand what the story behind positioning is (at least marginal positioning), but it’s lagging and thus not timely. Over reliance on any one indicator, especially one that isn’t an actual alpha, is not serious. In my letter I used the positioning data from Goldman (mix of COT and their own estimate of the positioning of certain types of strategies) to explain the backdrop and to make the case that a change in the economic regime could result in a violent unwind. I’d argue that assessing existing positioning, the prevailing regime, and the catalyst calendar (along with a variant perception on the path of data), is useful and a good trading style. That doesn’t seem to be Shapiro’s style.
He's replying bc he's trying to steer you away from self-harm. I could name the fund here but I'm not going to doxx a friend. Does knowing he's a HF-manager influence your reply?
I'm all about rebutting scams and lies which are abundant in this industry and especially among the retail crowd and retail 'educators', so have at it. I'm just suggesting that ending every post with a 'lol' seems a bit dismissive and it would be better with a factual reply (which arguably many of yours are). Okay. Thanks. I don't know Shapiro's style in detail myself as I have never paid for any of his services and probably won't, so I wouldn't know. Regardless, interesting stuff, and something I might be interested in exploring further myself at some point. To be honest, not really. And this isn't meant to be disrespectful either towards you or L&S, but I'm done 'believing' anything in this industry. I received the newsletter from a hedge fund here in Norway for a few years until it stopped sending out newsletters after a long string of losses. Many HFs underperform and a few even blow up. Now, L&S seems like a good guy with a ton of knowledge, so I do read his posts with interest and I appreciate his comments for sure. Thanks.
Man, you need to quote the dude, otherwise he's too stupid to know who you're talking about. (Not LF, but that other dude who thinks he's the only guy living in the sand castle.)
Amen to that. Unfortunately (or maybe it's fortunate), only some people will grasp it while some will never get it.