Funny we are about the same age and same progression from Handicapping to trading. However I have taken a much different approach to edge. I do think visual patterns can be replicated. I just do not know how and can test. However when wrong, lets say a bearish pattern, then a big rise and a loss and if it becomes bullish..it is funny how at halftime we just need to take our losses. It would be interesting if the book, did take the half time loss bet. However what you did not say is that the bookie would take any bet. Therefore what you suppose as a trend follower , that it would be more or less of a bet after the first half of game has been played. Does this team have momentum? Does this team have the ability to come from behind and reverse?. Whether or not "we" as traders are right or wrong on our bet, has absolutely no effect on the outcome of the second half of the game. However it has every effect on the spread and future behavior of the other gamblers. Once I got that thru my head, at least I stopped losing so much...LACK
Thanks ChartingMarkets, I appreciate your answer In one post you managed to touch on so many different aspects of trading! What's more interesting for me personally is that when I was reading your post, it was as if I was reading my own thoughts about trading, word by word! This gives me more confidence to continue doing what I am doing (on a conceptual level) and that I am on the right track to "consistent profitability"
In a recent interview, Justin Mamis said that the current crop of traders (not necessarily young) really couldn't care less about understanding, much less studying, support and resistance, demand and supply, the dynamic between price and volume. Rather they were interested only in "indicators". All they wanted to know was whether to use the blue line or the red line or the yellow line and what to do when one crossed the other and what the best settings were for each. They didn't even care what each of those lines meant, or how they were derived. All of which scared the hell out of him. ChartingMarkets seems to have figured this game out. Good for him.
I am disciplined and willing to wait for the market to come to me. I trade light when I have drawdowns as a fail safety and get back a few small winners under my belt to restore confidence. you have more discipline than at least 2/3 of us elitists
Thanks Charting Markets, For me whisky does the same. As for the Stock Market, I consider it second biggest game, after Life itself of course... Cheers...