It wouldn't suprise me. I think when there is a crisis (obviously there is one now), you will see that national self interest takes precedence over the Euro Zone.
All those who "knew" were short the US markets... and they are being chastised nowadays as profiteers. Warren Buffet on the other hand - "fear when there is greed, greedy when there is fear" - is seen as a knight in shining armour. The rationale for the Euro falling apart was absolutely stunning and convincing. A nice example of investment in brainpower.
I wrote my Thesis on how the EURO would never work long term in 1997 when they were in the "peg" stage Something like what is happening now...where different countrys have differing opinions would be the beginning and nationalism and country strains would finally be the final "tear" I agree with your post....and have told my buddies....it may not happen soon...but in our lifetime (next 20-30 years) the Euro will not exist I have many european friends who HATE The euro as it has ruined their purchasing power in relation to germany, france, etc
would be interesting to plot the correlation between successful traders and 'traders' who post predictions (irrespective of whether they come to fruition or not) on annon web boards. my guess is it's a pretty good fade... btw... been watching much cnbc europe lately? cause there was a long discussion with some euro economist about this 24 HOURS AGO. oh, and... feel free to post a screen shot of your massive euro short (being the king of shorts, and all, i would assume you loaded the truck b4 posting your wisdom to the awestruck masses)
Just my opinion but I think it would make the dollar very strong. If the Euro ceased to exist and the participating countries went back to their old currencies/interest rates there would be some safe-haven buying in sterling but being so inter-linked with Europe there would be a really strong bid to the dollar. I would expect GBP/USD to be 1:1.
The positives in the EU trading bloc and the single currency commerce far outweigh the negatives in the current financial turmoil. The strength of the EU bloc is still in it's diversification and inherent trust, while the Euro is a facilitator for the markets.