Well it did hit 1.2312, i have a BIG limit at 1.2310 Stop coming near. Last hope is to go all-in near my stop and hope to get out flat. But realisticly i'm doomed. I don't get it, the french "no" is the best thing that could happen! And it was expected! I've been trading against the trend for all year dammit! Everytime i want to go back in the trend, i say to myself: "well i'm gonna enter and the market is gonna reverse." BADDDDD, costly, timing....
Maan, and I thought I played a game of death, winner take all! Well, it's 1.2350 now. May keep going. Maybe the market just has to catch up to your "French vote of no is good" theory. Usually dumb money follows smarter money.
yeah, but if you think about it, then fundamentals are in the USD's favor.. espeically the fed's not going to stop raising rates. as soon as it breaks 1.2309 support, i'm going to pyramid some more short EUR
done. added position at 1.2303 support i mean the 15 min chart support at 1.2306. daily suport of 1.2340 was broken arleady
This thread is so amusing. Who cares about fundamentals if any contract wants to move it will move - what is the point of trying to trade counter trend. Look at LTCM - they were 'right' long term but it doesn't matter a bean if you are wiped out first. If you don't want to short it fine - sit out the market but wait until the trend turns before buying it. Averaging when fading a move is a guaranteed way to blow your entire account - it may take 1 week or 10 years but if you adopt that strategy it will happen. Anyway on the fundamentals the Euro economy is dire and US corporates only have a small time frame to repatriate all foreign profits thanks to Bush's very generous tax amnesty. All the Euro has done is retrace some 13 figures of a 56 big figure move. Seems perfectly reasonable to me. We haven't had any capitulation move yet - if that does happen the stale long euros are going to be in real trouble.
This conversation is dangerously like - from the opposite end of the spectrum - the doomsday commentary quoted all throughout the world when the EUR was running up to 1.36. Back then it was "If central banks decide to massively shift reserves..." or "If foreign investors stop financing the US debt..." lots of IFs back then. Now, the IFs are coming out again, though in the other direction. "If the big players capitulate..." etc. Can't you guys just take things in moderation without being Chicken Little? Remember this? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=759269#post759269 That guy tried to tell me all about how the US was going to be a Banana Republic before long.
In response to the two previous posts: The first one - when i said the thread was amusing me I didn't mean every single post on it-apologies. With respect to the second one I agree with what you say but was merely pointing out that there are perfectly legitimate fundamental and technical reasons why the dollar is rallying. I was merely pointing out factors that do support the dollar and can justify this move.
WHOOHOO I'm all-in and it bounced 2 pips away from my dreadful stop!!! I have 1/1000000 chance of having nailled the exact bottom, but if happens i'll be a rich man!!!! Seriously think i'm screwed. The point was to do a long term trade until we see a reversal. Cautious and patient, i started low at 1.26+ anticipating it MAY decline to 1.23, my stop. Planned 2-3 months to do this. Well here we are 2 weeks later and really too much undiciplined to try a counter-trend bottom-picking system. If i can get out flat, which is now at 1.2393, i'll stick to scalping!